9:30 As Yogi Berra said, "It gets late early out there." It's late for me so I'm going to call it a night. I may check back later but I probably will not update this. Good luck to Supervisor Perez!
9:29: Leticia Perez 20,384 51.7%
Andy Vidak 19,062 48.3%
What the SOS site has now that they added Fresno County to the totals. Kings County though is not included in the votes here however.
9:26: Perez now at 37% in Tulare County, up a bit from 34%. Hope the trend keeps going her way.
9:04: I'd recommend this twitter account too for updates, KernQuirks: https://twitter.com/...
8:56 No updates yet but just remember, the results did not look too good on primary night so it could turn around, especially with absentee ballots mostly reporting. If more precincts (especially from Fresno,) start reporting and Vidak stays where he is, then I'll be worried.
8:46 Update from AD-52 where State Sen. Gloria Negrete McLeod (D) left to become congresswoman from the 35th district. Right now
Leon 29.4%, (I) (formerly a Republican)
Rodriguez 15.4% (D)
Pineda 15.1% (R)
6 Dems are running against 1 Rep and the Independent. This could be the 2nd time in the San Bernardino area that a Dem does not make the top two in a heavily Dem district.
8:35 From adding up the results posted at 8:31 and the results posted at 8:26 and 8:09, I have:
Vidak 29,472 55.6%
Perez 23,564 44.4%
We really need to clean up on the election day votes. This is not looking too good.
8:31 First votes appearing on the SOS page.
Leticia Perez 9,376 49.9%
Andy Vidak 9,422 50.1%
This is not the news I was hoping for. Even though these are mostly absentee, Vidak is leading with only Kern and Tulare showing up on the SOS page. Also, it shows 48.7% of precincts reporting in Kern and if Perez is only winning 58% in Kern with that much in, it's not good. Hopefully the next results are coming from the more Democratic areas.
8:26 Now all the counties have reported their absentees.
Kings County: Vidak 10,553 75% Perez 3,469 25% (hat tips to DrPhillips and Darth Jeff)
Vidak 4277 66%
Perez 2243 34%
8:21: And just as I post that, I find out Perez is leading 58-42 in the absentees in Kern County (hat tip to DrPhillips.) Good margin for Perez but if she wants to win, she needs in my opinion to get 65% of the total vote from Kern County.
8:20: This could be a very long night (and few weeks, not all counting should be done until August 2nd.) The only county to report early votes so far is Fresno, no word on Kern, Kings or Tulare.
8:15: The Fresno CBS Twitter feed is going to be following the election too: https://twitter.com/...
8:12: If anyone has other links for results, post in the comments below.
8:09 First votes in, early votes from Fresno County. Here they are:
LETICIA PEREZ 10719 53.02%
ANDY VIDAK 9497 46.98%
The baseline for a 51% win for Leticia was 59% in Fresno County but keep in mind that the first votes always lean Republican (in 2010, Boxer was tied statewide in the early vote but won by 10 when everything was counted.)
8:02: county election websites sometimes report results before the SOS page so I will provide those:
Fresno County: http://www.co.fresno.ca.us/...
Kern County: http://elections.co.kern.ca.us/...
Kings County: http://www.countyofkings.com/...
Update: I will be liveblogging the results as they come in. The polls close at 8pm in California and the link to the election results are here: http://vote.sos.ca.gov/...
A few things to keep in mind: early votes (absentee ballots) usually report first and will be on the SOS page, even if the page says 0% of precincts reporting (because the votes are in absentee votes, not election day votes from precincts.) Also, these absentee votes that report first historically lean Republican so do not get scared if Vidak is leading a little bit (if he's ahead with 55%+, then that may be another story.)
Cross posted on my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ which has more election analysis. For facebook updates, go here: https://www.facebook.com/...
On May 21st, 2013, the voters of California's SD-16 (a State Senate District spanning Fresno, Kings, Tulare and Kern Counties,) voted in a special election for State Senate. This election is pivotal for the Democrats in order to maintain their 2/3rd majority there which allows them to pass legislation more easily. The previous State Senator, Michael Rubio (D) had retired in order to accept a lobbying position at Chevron. Rubio recently came under fire from Democratic pundits for not challenging former State Sen. David Valadao (R) in a race for California's 21st Congressional district which covered much of Rubio's district. Valadao went on to win with 58% of the vote, despite President Obama winning 54% in the same district. Rubio now may cause the Republicans to win another seat, this time his State Senate district.
The SD-16 race so far has been very close. The Democrats nominated Kern County Supervisor Leticia Perez (D) whose campaign platform is increasing the minimum wage and supporting the high speed rail project (the high speed rail project is a very contentious issue in the Central Valley with some voters supporting it due to job creation and others opposing it saying it is a waste of tax dollars.) The Republicans have nominated Andy Vidak (R), a rancher from Kings County who ran against Rep. Jim Costa (D) in 2010 under similar district lines and nearly beat Costa. This race is drawing attention, $400,000 was spent on TV ads between June 9th and July 6th and experts predict that $4.5 million will be spent on the race. Even though President Obama won 58% of the vote in 2008 in this district, Vidak nearly won the primary, winning 49.8% of the vote on May 21st, 2013. This primary featured candidates from all parties and if no candidate received 50% of the vote or more, there would be a July 23rd runoff. Vidak at first seemed to have won with 51.9% of the vote on the morning after election day but after late provisional ballots were counted, his vote percentage dropped to 49.8%. Perez received about 43% of the vote but the rest of the votes that Perez and Vidak did not win went to Democrats so hopefully Perez can win over those voters. This post though will feature a description of the district and show the county baselines for Perez.
I previously wrote a similar post focusing more on turnout in SD-16 and why Leticia Perez should not concede. It was written just after the May 21st primary. It can be found here: http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/...