I’ve been hearing a lot of talk about “electability” lately. I’ve seen the diaries ranking “electability” of major-party candidates and cross-referencing with election outcomes. But most of all, I’ve seen the oft-repeated line about how Sanders has only ever run in “friendly” Vermont, how he practically sailed into office.
This diary is about debunking the lies and revealing the truth. To do this, it will compare both Sanders’ and Clinton’s successful runs for federal offices to date, and examine how well both did, relative to (other) Democrats also on the ballot at the time.
1. Bernie Sanders
Bernard “Bernie” Sanders first won Federal office in Vermont in 1990, ousting incumbent Republican Peter P. Smith. Afterward, he ran for re-election to the House seven times, before moving upstairs to the Senate. Accordingly, this section is divided as follows:
- 1A: Challenging for the House
- 1B: Maintaining his House seat
- 1C: Challenging for the Senate
- 1D: Maintaining his Senate seat
1A: Challenging for the House
The 1990 House election in Vermont was actually a rematch of the 1988 House election — Bernie Sanders had challenged Republican Peter Plympton Smith in 1988 to succeed Republican Jim Jeffords (Jeffords had moved to the Senate, winning 68% of the vote) in the House. The result of this was a three-way race in which Sanders placed second, with 37.5% of the vote and the Democratic candidate won 18.9% of the vote — Smith won, with 41% of the vote.
In 1990, the Democratic Party decided not to field a candidate, instead allowing Sanders and Smith to run against each other. Most likely a wise decision, as Vermont had elected just one Democrat (ever) to its House seat — William Meyer won the 1958 election, but failed to be re-elected in 1960. The gambit paid off, as Sanders ousted Smith with 56% of the vote, beating Smith by a whopping 18 points to take the seat, then promptly caucused with the Democrats for his time in Congress. Being a midyear election, the only other Statewide election being held was for the Governor’s mansion — Republican Peter Snelling won with 52% of the vote, succeeding outgoing Democratic Governor Madeline Kunin.
End result: Sanders ran 10% ahead of the Democrat running statewide, who was also a challenger.
1B: Maintaining his House seat
After winning his House seat, Rep. Sanders ran for re-election seven times: In 1992, 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002 and 2004.
1992: Bill Clinton won Vermont (the second Democrat ever to do so, LBJ being the other), bearing George Bush Sr. by 16 points, 46-30. In the Governor’s mansion, Lt.-Governor Howard Dean had inherited the job after Gov. Snelling died in office, and won election to his first full term with 75% of the vote. The Senate seat of Pat Leahy (D-VT) was also up for re-election, and he won a fourth term in office with a surprisingly narrow 56-43 margin over Secretary of State Jim Douglas (R-VT). Meanwhile, Sanders won re-election against both a Republican and a Democratic opponent, beating Republican Tim Philbin by an eye-popping 27% of the vote, 58-31-8.
End result: Any way you measure it, Sanders ran ahead of Clinton and longtime incumbent Leahy, his margin of victory behind only Dean’s.
1994: In the Republican Revolution of 1994, Democrats were dropping all over the country — except in Vermont. Governor Dean was elected to a second full term with 68% of the vote and Republican Senator Jim Jeffords beat a Democrat 50-40 to win a second term in office. Only the GOP fielded an opponent to Sanders, which was probably just as well, as he barely won, 50-46.5, to secure a third term.
End result: Sanders ran ahead of one Democratic candidate (Jeffords’ opponent Jan Backus), but behind another (Dean).
1996: 1994 would prove to be the last close election Sanders would face, as he defeated Republican Susan Sweetser by 23 points, just ahead of President Clinton’s 22-point lead in Vermont. Meanwhile, the indomitable Howard Dean turned in yet another crushing re-election, beating Republican John Gropper by 48 points.
End result: Sanders ran marginally ahead of one Democratic candidate (incumbent President Clinton), and far behind another (Dean).
1998: The second of Clinton’ mid-term election years proved to be a boon for Sanders, who was given the Democratic nomination (he was written-in to the primary as an Independent, seriously!) and thrashed his hapless Republican opponent by 31 points. At the same time, Dean was held to a 14-point win over Republican Ruth Dwyer, while Leahy beat Republican Fred Tuttle (who had endorsed him) 76-22.
End result: Sanders ran ahead of one Democrat (Dean), but behind the other (Leahy)...although I’m not sure it entirely counts as a contested election for Leahy…
2000: 2000 was another busy year for Vermont statewide elections - Governor, President, House and a Senate seat. Governor Dean’s 1998 margin was eroded a little further in his rematch with Dwyer, beating her by 12.5 points. Gore carried the State by 10 points, 51-41, while Jeffords cruised to an easy victory over State Auditor Ed Flanagan, 65-25. Sanders ran up an even larger margin, defeating Republican Karen Kerin by over fifty points, 69%-18%.
End result: Sanders ran far ahead of any of the Democrats in Vermont, lapping even Governor Dean’s margin of victory multiple times over.
2002: The first midterms of Bush’s Presidency were held in the shadow of the 9/11 attacks and the Republicans benefited from this, picking up eight House seats. They also won the Governorship of Vermont, with Howard Dean’s retirement leaving Lt.-Gov Doug Racine (D) facing off against Treasurer Jim Douglas (R) — Douglas won a three-way race with a 2.5% margin, even as Sanders crushed another Republican challenger by over 30 points.
End result: Sanders ran far ahead of the only other Democrat running Statewide.
2004: Bush’s re-election year was Sanders’ last re-election effort to the House. It also featured Leahy’s bid for a fifth term in office. Leahy ran up a huge margin, beating his GOP opponent by 46% as John Kerry carried Vermont by 20% and Gov. Douglas won re-election against the Democratic Mayor of Burlington (incidentally, Sanders’ immediate successor) Peter Clavelle, also on a 20% margin. Sanders won by 43%, beating Republican Greg Parke 67.5%-24.5%.
End result: Sanders ran ahead of all Democrats save Leahy — indeed, he lapped Kerry’s margin of victory.
1C: Winning the Senate seat
Leading up to the 2006 Senate elections, Republican Sen. Jim Jeffords decided to retire rather than seek election to a fourth term in the Senate. Seeing an opportunity, Bernie Sanders decided to go for a promotion — he won the Democratic primary, then declined the nomination in order to ensure that the left wing wouldn’t split its vote. He was faced by self-funding Republican businessman Rich Tarrant for the general election.
The 2006 Senate election, held as a Democratic wave swept the country, was exceptionally nasty by Vermont standards. Tarrant spent lavishly, running negative ads throughout the campaign and running up the most expensive campaign in Vermont history — spending $74 for each vote he ultimately received. Sanders raised a great deal of money also, but ended up winning the election 65-32, spending less than half as much for each voter who supported him and $1,800,000 less overall than Tarrant.
In the House, Democrat Peter Welch won the right to succeed Sanders in the House, beating Maj-Gen. Martha Rainville (R) 53%-44.5%. Governor Douglas won a third term, 56%-41%, over Democratic Some Dude Scudder Parker.
End result: Sanders ran up by far the highest margin statewide in his first Senate election.
1D: Maintaining his Senate seat
Sanders’ latest election (to date) was his bid for a second term in the Senate, in 2012. Also up were Governor Peter Shumlin (D) and Representative Peter Welch (D), who won 58% and 72% of the vote respectfully. Sanders won 71% of the vote, narrowly trailing Welch but running far ahead of Shumlin and marginally ahead of President Barack Obama’s 66.5% of the vote.
Overall analysis
Bernie Sanders has had a wide variety of elections to look at; however, on average he has tended to run ahead of Democrats also running Statewide at the same time, whether as a challenger or as an incumbent. Not even Pat Leahy has consistently beaten Sanders’ margins of election, although he has usually done so.
2: Hillary Clinton
With Sanders’ electoral history looked at, this diary will now shift to Hillary Clinton’s. Hillary Clinton has extensive experience with political office, but it has usually been as an appointed official or an onlooker — she has only run for (and won) office twice, both for the Senate seat of New York. Therefore, this part of the diary will have only two sections:
- 2A: Winning the Senate seat
- 2B: Maintaining her Senate seat
2a: Winning the Senate seat
In 2000, the talk of the Beltway was about Hillary Clinton. The much-admired (and much-disliked — even in the 1990s, opinion of Hillary Clinton was polarized) First Lady to outgoing President Bill Clinton, she was running to represent New York in the Senate, despite having no prior experience with elected office. The Democratic establishment was quick to clear her way to the nomination — Outgoing Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan endorsed her to succeed him, and the other high-profile Democrats who were hoping for a run (Reps. Nita Lowey and Caroline Maloney, HUD Secretary Andrew Cuomo and Comptroller Carl McCall) stood aside so as to ensure Clinton had the best chance she could get against the eventual Republican nominee.
On the Republican side, the nomination contest resembled a soap-opera for some time, with NYC Mayor Rudy Guiliani (I wonder what he was saying before 9/11 allowed him to tack a noun and a verb in front of it?) running a very psychological campaign against Clinton from the moment he came in. The Guiliani campaign emphasized Clinton’s carpetbagger status, also attempting to bait her into overreaction to various statements and using extensive opposition research to try to find attack lines against her.
Initially, this told on Clinton’s campaign — while she was able to defuse the carpetbagger charges with her (now-famous) “listening tour” to each and every county in New York and careful emphasis of locally-important issues to emphasize that she’d done her homework, her relations with the press were sour and she was starting to bleed support from female voters. More importantly, she had alienated New York City’s powerful (and large) Jewish community by her warm greeting of Suha Arafat, wife of PA head (and longtime anti-Israeli terrorist leader) Yasser Arafat.
The 2000 Senate election highlighted one of Clinton’s major strengths to this day: Tenacity. Tough and determined to succeed, she stuck out the race, using her lack of office to out-campaign Giuliani who also had to carry out his duties as Mayor, and whose interest flagged over time. This began to tell, as he started to fall behind in the polls relative to Clinton and her campaign began to get his measure on the psych-warfare front. Then the race was upended by the very public revelations of Giuliani’s longrunning infidelity to his third wife, leading to his withdrawal from the race on 19 May 2000, leaving the Republican side of the race in chaos as all other Republicans had also withdrawn to facilitate their front-runner’s bid. However, the Republican party establishment quickly (within a fortnight) rallied around Rep. Rick Lazio (NY-02), and the other contestant (Rep. Peter King of NY-03) pulled back to establish unity.
Clinton immediately established a commanding lead over the low-profile Lazio in the polls, however this quickly dwindled and by June had disappeared, leaving the two in a tie. Over the remaining five months of the race, her campaign’s discipline and energy (as well as a debate blunder by Lazio, in which he very physically got in Clinton’s face) re-established her lead and she ended up beating Lazio in November by 12 points, 55%-43%.
At the top of the ticket, meanwhile, Al Gore correctly counted New York as a safe State, which he ended up winning by 25 points, taking 60% of the vote to Bush’s 35%.
End result: Clinton ran far behind Gore despite Giuliani’s spectacular implosion.
2B: Maintaining her Senate seat
Clinton was up for a second term in 2006, the second midterm of the Bush administration. Despite the rampant speculation swirling around the possibility of a Presidential campaign, Clinton elected to run for re-election to the Senate. She was considered a sure bet for a second term, despite drawing a great deal of Republican attention.
True to predictions, and despite the Republicans’ best hopes, Clinton won a second term with a massive 67-31 victory after spending $36 million, the most of any Senate candidate in 2006. Being the midterm election, New York’s other statewide offices included Governor/Lt-Governor, Treasurer, Attorney-General and Comptroller, all won by Democrats.
Eliot Spitzer carried the Governor’s election 69-29, Andrew Cuomo won the Attorney-General’s office 58-29 and Alan Harvesi won the Comptroller’s election 56-39. Overall, Clinton ran slightly behind Spitzer, but ahead of Cuomo and Harvesi.
Overall analysis
Perhaps because of her high profile, perhaps in spite of it, Clinton did not run noticeably ahead of other Democrats for statewide elections in New York. Notably, in the one Presidential year she ran, she ran around 10% behind the top of the ticket.
Conclusion
After reading this data, the conclusions I came to are:
- Sanders is no stranger to hard-fought races in Republican-friendly terrain. (Which Vermont undeniably was in 1990, having a Republican Governor, Senator and Treasurer.)
- Clinton has many strengths as a candidate, but also many weaknesses, and tends to run behind other Democrats.
- If it’s “all about the Supreme Court”, as many Clinton supporters have stated, then the safer choice is Bernie Sanders, not Hillary Clinton.