Synopsis: The U.S. role in I/P reduces our ability to resist Russian and Chinese expansion and our chances of avoiding a fascist takeover at home. We must find a way to unify the Democratic-voting coalition around a more constructive and de-escalatory approach in the Middle East.
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For at least one person, the events in Israel and Gaza have been a spectacular success. If there were a knife sharp enough to cleave support away from Ukraine, the recent events in the Middle East would be it. Consider what the effects have been in geopolitics and domestic politics:
1) Every day, televisions around the world are showing scenes of carnage inflicted upon the dispossessed by a nation that is viewed as a U.S. patron state. That is terrible PR for the U.S., particularly with regard to the Global South. It weakens the credibility of our leadership in international matters.
We are the main supplier of armaments to Israel, and we are simultaneously calling for more armaments to be sent to Ukraine. Worldwide disfavor about the first relationship will inevitably color views about the second relationship. For Putin's forces, this is a win.
2) Disagreement about Israel and Palestine is fracturing the U.S. Democratic-voting coalition. It’s causing some (unknown) number of people to shift their enthusiasm away from voting for Biden and perhaps away from voting at all. It’s allowing certain third-party candidates to seem more attractive to a subset of left-leaning voters.
The presidential election could come down to the votes of a smaller number of people than you see at a university football game. Every disgruntled Democratic voter who takes their support away from Biden inches us closer to electing the fascist. That also is a win for Putin's forces.
If there were a lever subtle enough to tip the U.S. into fascism next year, the recent events would be it.
One of Russia’s foreign policy tactics is to nurture existing fracture lines within the societies of their adversaries. They have provided various kinds of support to secessionist movements in the U.S. They have made financial and other connections with the National Rifle Association, an organization responsible for one of the deepest fractures in American politics and culture. They nurture connections with stars and leaders among social conservatives here.
For practical purposes, it doesn’t matter whether the tarnishing of the U.S. and the fracturing of its democratic coalition were a windfall for Putin or whether he somehow provoked those things to happen. It doesn’t matter whether or not there were conspiracies and nefarious Russian foreign policy at work. The effects of Israel/Palestine are what they are, and they weaken us in a way we cannot afford. Whether most people know it or not, western democracy is on its back heels.
A few days ago, a diarist here criticized Mehdi Hasan and others for (I think?) making “passive aggressive threats” about not voting for Biden. (I didn’t entirely follow the logic of the diary and its connection to the person named in the title.)
Attached to that diary and elsewhere here, I've seen numerous comments expressing doubt that Muslim Americans and others who are dissatisfied with Biden’s approach toward Gaza would actually withhold their votes. The logic put forward in these comments usually runs along the lines of, “But don’t they know that Trump would be a thousand times worse than Biden?” And yes, he would.
Most of those commenters, just like most of the readers here, see voting as a tool for moving us closer to a landscape of policies they would like to see. And again yes, all things considered, Biden is the better choice even if I disagree with his approach to Gaza.
There are a lot of citizens out there who don’t think of their vote in terms of policies and outcomes. For some of them, their vote is an expression of moral alignment with a candidate or a party. I believe there’s a non-trivial number of people in left-leaning blocs who feel sufficiently upset about Gaza that they’ll be unmotivated to step out their door and vote for Biden on election day. That effect will cascade down the ticket too, affecting races from congress to city council.
And here’s another thing. Speaking as a human, if I’m dissatisfied with something you’re doing, and you then ask me, “Where else you gonna’ go?” my first inclination is to say, “Somewhere other than with you!”
Because “Where else you gonna go?” is the language of the abuser, and it drives some people away. And with so much at stake in 2024, those of us who want to protect democracy cannot afford to alienate anyone in the Democratic-voting coalition, nor take their support for granted. I already have friends — heretofore Democratic supporters — who are now planning to vote third-party. It doesn’t matter how irrational you think that is. They are using a different voting calculus than you.
Regardless of what you think is the correct policy approach to Israel and Palestine, the level of dissatisfaction shown in the November Gallup poll is alarming if you care about participation by the Democratic-voting coalition next year.
The only suggestion I have for improving this situation is this: we simply must come together. Despite the very painful nature of the Israel/Palestine disagreement, we Democrats have to find a way to unify our Democratic voting coalition. I don’t know what that way looks like, although I think it probably requires us to converge around an even more de-escalatory approach to Gaza than the one currently being pursued. I’m also fairly sure the way out of here will include something to make every party in the disagreement unhappy. But we must find the way out. So much is at stake.
This diary isn't a plea for somebody to please do something about Israel and Gaza, nor is it meant to convince anyone to favor a particular side in that conflict. I'm saying we U.S. Democrats must collectively engage with this issue differently, starting soonest. We must change the way we are engaging with the topic and each other. Then we must find a way to unify around a de-escalatory policy and call for it to be implemented.
