CNN just came out with a national poll with lots of nuggets in it.
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/...
Most commentators focus on the dismal reelect numbers for congressmen.
But if you dig deeper you find these warning signs:
Democratic Party Favorability:
47 - 47 (nationally)
47 - 47 (in the South)
Oh really? Might that be the good old boys reflex of traditional white voters who like their local Dems but those scary DC Dems not so much?
Coming to the age split:
57 - 36 (18-34)
43 - 50 (35-49)
45 - 51 (50-64)
43 - 52 (65+)
In other words: Democrats have a negative rating from every age group except 18-34 which also happens to be the least likely to show up at the polls.
The general question whether, "most congressmen deserve reelection" stands at an all time low with registered voters:
23 - 72 (now)
31 - 65 (before last years midterms)
37 -58 (before the 2008 wave election)
34 - 51 (before the 2006 wave election)
In other words, 2012 may get even more wavy!!!
But Americans like their own congressmen, don't they? Not really:
45 - 48 (now)
51 - 44 (before last years midterms)
55 -38 (before the 2008 wave election)
52 - 31 (before the 2006 wave election)
Just look at these numbers. The first time ever (?) that we are in negative territory here.
Even more interesting the split according to party preference (adults):
Democrats
54 - 36
Republicans
39 - 50
This cries "primary challenge" as loud as one can imagine.
And do "most democratic members of congress deserve reelection"?
38 - 58
terrible numbers, right?
Well not as terrible as the crosstabs for "most republican congressmen":
31 - 64
Devastating numbers.
If these crosstabs and the poll makeup are even a little bit indicative of the 2012 electorate, Republicans will be in a world of hurt.
