Ohio Votes to Legalize Abortion
It’s Abortion, Stupid
The landslide win in Ohio on Issue 1 legalizing abortion was most gratifying, particularly in a state that has been trending red. But it was not surprising. This is a pro-choice country by almost 2 to 1.
I believe that the results in Ohio, and in Wisconsin for the State Supreme Court seat (another landslide victory), and the Kansas referendum (also a landslide) should be a wake up call to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee to widen the 2024 map and go on offense.
I also think that it widens the presidential electoral map as well.
First, the Senate. The conventional wisdom is that next year’s map is not a good one for the Democrats and that for the most part they will be playing defense. That may well turn out to be the case, but I also think that a number of Republican seats can also be in play with the right candidates and adequate resources.
Florida – Senator Rick Scott is the essence of what is wrong with this country and our judicial system. He was the CEO of a company that was accused of the largest Medicare fraud in history, yet no charges were filed against him and he walked away with hundreds of millions of dollars. And then he managed to win three close elections…two for governor and one for senator.
Though Florida has seemed to have gone red, the truth is that Democratic turnout has been suppressed and the state party is in disarray.
So, I would argue that Scott is vulnerable to a strong challenge. First, he has advocated cutting Social Security, which is obviously idiotic in a state like Florida. Also, Florida has just passed one of the most draconian abortion ban bills in the country. Make Scott defend that, and make it clear that he would be a supporter of a nationwide abortion ban. With that in mind, Democrats should do everything they can to put a referendum on the ballot in 2024 to legalize abortion, which will dramatically juice turnout. Though the Democrats did poorly in 2022, there is no reason that has to be the case next year. And now they have a potentially strong candidate in Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. Oh, and by the way, 67% of Floridians want abortion legal in most or all cases.
Texas – Senator Ted Cruz is one of the most unlikeable, distasteful members to ever roam the halls of Congress. Cruz is even disliked in Texas and if Texas were not a red state, but a purple one, Cruz would be toast. Having said that, with the demographics changing and the populace getting younger, Texas should eventually become purple and then blue. In fact, if there were not so many non-voters, Texas could very well be blue now. Many of these non-voters are young. Two significant issues could drive them to the polls…guns and abortion. Texans support abortion rights by 60%, and by the time November, 2024 rolls around they will have had over another year under SB 8, the horrific and draconian abortion law that won’t even allow healthcare to save the life of the mother.
If there was ever a need to finally realize the potential of turning Texas blue, it is now. The Democrats should spend massively on GOTV between now and 2024. The good news is that serious contenders like U.S. Representative Colin Allred are going to be challenging Cruz. It will be tough, but Cruz is beatable.
Missouri – Senator Josh Hawley is another jackass who should be forever shamed for raising his fist in support of the capitol Jan. 6 insurrectionists. He is being challenged by military veteran Lance Kunce, a dynamic, charismatic candidate. Yes, Missouri is a red state these days, but Hawley is not particularly popular.
And a poll of Missouri voters show that almost 50% are opposed to overturning Roe v. Wade. And Hawley’s wife, Erin Morrow Hawley, is not only a leading anti-abortion leader, but is also trying to get mifepristone abolished. The ads write themselves. If the election is merely Republican vs. Democrat in a state like Missouri, the democrat will lose. However, if the election is about an issue, about abortion, then I think Kunce has a fighting chance.
Indiana – (Open Seat) – Senator Mike Braun decided one term in the U.S. Senate as a non-entity was enough, but not before letting everyone know that he is a moron – and that he believed that states should have the right to determine if interracial couples could get married. Now he wants to be Governor. Of course.
Right-wing MAGA congressman Jim Banks is the likely nominee for the Republicans and to my dismay there is not a strong potential Democratic nominee. Bank's position on abortion is extreme.
In 2012, Richard Mourdock defeated Senator Richard Lugar in the Republican primary only to lose in the general election to Joe Donnelly. The reason? He said that if a woman got pregnant as a result of rape, it was "something God intended".
Trust me. It should not be that hard to paint Banks as equally outrageous. As of now, abortion is effectively banned in Indiana. At one point, Banks advocated for arresting women who went out of state for the procedure before walking that back. Also, a majority of Hoosiers support broad abortion rights. So, here, like in Missouri, if the election is merely Republican versus Democrat, it will be tough. But because Indiana’s abortion law is so extreme, as is Jim Banks, I believe that a decent Democratic candidate could have a real shot here. DSCC, are you listening? It’s imperative you recruit a contender now.
Our Incumbents – Though we are playing defense this cycle, we have very strong candidates. Yes, Tester in Montana and Brown in Ohio look vulnerable, but they have their own very successful brands and both states are pro-choice. Their opponents won’t be. And despite the difficult races anticipated for Senators Rosen, Baldwin, and Casey, should their states go for Biden as I suspect they will, they should all win. Abortion will be a major issue in all those races as the specter of a national ban should scare the heck out of young people, particularly women, getting them out to vote in large numbers.
And clearly, Biden intends to also run on abortion, which is good, as well as his other accomplishments. And I think the abortion issue widens the field for some potential upsets like in North Carolina, Ohio, Florida and Texas. I know that may sound like pie in the sky, but people don’t like their rights taken away from them. And it wasn’t that long ago that Obama won the first three.
And in every one of the aforementioned races the Democrats should be running ads like the one that help Andy Beshear get reelected governor in red Kentucky.
It is awful that women’s rights have been curtailed so dramatically and that the MAGA/Christian Nationalist plans are even to be more draconian. But the abortion laws they have passed and what they want to do in the future is deeply unpopular. There is no reason why progressives can’t be successful electorally merely stating the truth.
