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At this moment, it seems as if the odds favor a flip in New York's 9th district. And with the Democratic-controlled New York Assembly and Republican-controlled New York Senate having to find a way to get rid of two incumbents, the drama seems to center around eliminating the 9th and eliminating Kathy Hochul's seat? But what about a series of splits to eliminate the 9th and at least help one upstate Republican as a payback while keeping Hochul?

Here's the blank maps of upstate New York and New York City:

Let's go district by district now

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The Hill says

Boehner has been intimately involved in Ohio's redistricting process. The state is losing two congressional seats because of weak population growth. While Republicans control the whole process, demographic realities mean they must ax one Democratic and one Republican district.

Jordan's transgression against party leaders might cost him his seat. Post-Dispatch sources close to the redistricting process said it was the "final straw" and that he is not a "team player."

So let's say that Jim Jordan doesn't backtrack and votes himself into being redistricted out of office. This is one possibility for him..

Most of the current 4th would be paired with Steve Austria (R-Beavercreek). With the 4th losing parts to the 5th (Lima and Findley). And Jim Jordan's Urbana house winding up in a district with Steve Stivers.

So let's look at the map, district by district

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The House took up the "International Protecting Girls by Preventing Child Marriage Act of 2010" (S 987) tonight.

Conor Williams of the Washington Post thought this was "still an easy vote", noting that

In its current form, S. 987 simply makes child development a key priority within the existing U.S. international development agenda. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill could cost $67 million over five years, only if Congress appropriates this money later. But Republicans, led on the floor last night by Representative Dan Burton (R-Ind.), are trying to block the bill's passage on the grounds that "the bill does not reflect current fiscal realities.

The vote on suspending the bills to pass the bill was 241-166, short of the margin needed to pass the bill. Only 12 Republicans voted to help prevent international child marriage.

More under the fold.

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Have you seen "Bobby Thompson"? Call 1-800-Crime-TV if you have any tips on his current location (or anything to help catch him)

"Bobby Thompson" (left) was featured tonight on America's Most Wanted. He's wanted for money laundering, corruption, and identity theft. His real name is unknown (hence the quotation marks). He donated $200,000 to mainly Republicans.

While none of the politicians who received money from this man could have realized where his money came from, I cite examples such as the Abramoff scandal to make the following call.

The money donated to his fake charity was used as donations to politicians and I think it would be more than appropriate for the politicians who received Thompson's stolen money to give that money to real Veterans charities in this holiday season.

Under the fold, the politicians who received checks from the man called "Bobby Thompson"

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Also posted on Show Me Progress

Here is something that you won't know if you live outside of Missouri and that you may not know if you live in Missouri. Jackson County is split between two election boards. One board serves Kansas City, the other board serves everything else. The board for the rest of Jackson County made their results official today.

ROY BLUNT* 63870 54.42%
ROBIN CARNAHAN 47634 40.58%
Other 5561 4.73%

TOM SCHWEICH* 61255 52.73%
SUSAN MONTEE 50567 43.53%
CHARLES W. BAUM 4203 3.62%

It was only 2 years ago that this part of Missouri reported these results

JOHN MCCAIN-SARAH PALIN* 92833 49.79%
BARACK OBAMA-JOE BIDEN 90722 48.66%

So how did it all fall apart? Let's go region by region

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I'd like to start off this diary by sharing a map with all of you.

The map shows the percentage difference in Democratic representation going into the 2010 elections and after the 2010 elections.

Overall, Democratic representation in the 45 states holding elections on Tuesday dropped from 55% to 45%. If you factor out New Hampshire and it's 400 member House, the average percentage of Democrats in the chambers of 44 states dropped from 55.3% to 46.8%. On the House side, 2591 Democrats were members of the lower chamber going into the election and 2171 will be members after the election. On the Senate side, the numbers drop from 913 to 791.

Essentially this means that the battle to win back the United States House and many state legislative chambers will be one that younger Democrats must wage.

Poll

Your favorite state amongst the ones which experienced a huge anti-Dem swing in legislature elections?

8%2 votes
8%2 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
20%5 votes
20%5 votes
8%2 votes
0%0 votes
16%4 votes
4%1 votes
4%1 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
12%3 votes
0%0 votes

| 25 votes | Vote | Results

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This year, Daylight Saving Time ends on November 7th. Under current law, November 2nd is the only possible day that daylights saving time could end after the general election. Daylight Saving Time traditionally ended in the last weekend of October until the law was changed several years ago.

So how does DST make the last few hours of election day different?

Here in the Kansas City area, the forecast is for the sunset to be around 6:15PM CDT. Polls close in Missouri at 7pm. So if DST were to not be in effect, the sunset would occur 105 minutes before polls closed instead of 45 minutes before polls closed. Possibly meaning that working people could get home with the sun out, eat something, and choose to vote late. Instead of getting home with the sun about to set, eating, seeing that the sun has set and reclining. How much of an effect could this have? Possibly minimal. It might make it easier to continue hardcore GOTV efforts through a later time than would be expected without DST.

How does DST impact other states?

Poll

Will Daylight Saving Time impact voter turnout on November 2nd?

11%9 votes
6%5 votes
24%20 votes
41%34 votes
4%4 votes
11%9 votes

| 81 votes | Vote | Results

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Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 10:56 AM PDT

Don't ask Roy Blunt about Dora Narvaez

by RBH

For the vast majority of the reading audience, Missouri's Senate race may have fallen off your radar system. So here's an update from the saga involving Roy Blunt and his still false story with Dora Narvaez.

KMBC political reporter Micheal Mahoney found out today that if you ask Roy Blunt about Dora Narvaez, Roy will get very mad at you and insist that his statement was "accurate at the time"

The quick transcript, as posted on Fired Up, the video is under the fold (because the code for entering it was 1100 characters long)

MICHEAL MAHONEY: Did you know this woman you wrote the letter for, or not?

   BLUNT: What a -- You know, that's just such nonsense, Mike, and you know it.  And it's desperation politics on their side. And, uh, these issues are bigger than that.  We put a statement on that at the time. It was accurate at the time. You can go back and read it.

   MAHONEY: Did you know her or not?

   BLUNT: We put a statement on that at the time.  And it's exactly accurate. You read it, and you know what it says.

Often times, it's not the action, it's the reaction.

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Tue Mar 23, 2010 at 04:29 PM PDT

Five Simple Words

by RBH

If you're a Missourian, or way into politics for your own good, you can read this on Show Me Progress

Five Words to define HCR in the election season
Option A: Move forward or move backward
Option B: You Can't Trust The Republicans

Hey, can't hurt to have multiple options.

Ultimately the campaign over the HCR bill will have wild distortions, both for the contents of the bill and the moves that Republicans can do if they win in November.

The distortions, involving death panels, abortions, and tomatoes being poisonous, are not going to stop (zombie lies live forever) and only the most honed of the Republicans will be able to pick out a part of the bill, in the actual bill, that is the most objectionable. Which would be a fun game to play provided you have safety goggles on at the time.

As for the moves that are possible for the Republicans. They will not be able to do anything whatsoever to forcibly repeal the HCR law. They might remove portions but only if Obama agrees and an amendment to current law. If you hear a person voting Republican to repeal the law in 2011, they're a sucker of the highest magnitude.

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Originally posted on Show Me Progress

There are a lot of things wrong with something calling itself a "voter's bill of rights" that looks more like a laundry list of favors to help Republicans (such as a constitutional bar on early voting and paying people for voter registration). I suspect that if any action is made on HJR 34, the voter ID portions are nothing new (in fact other HJRs are proposing authorizing voter ID).

But, something stood out to me in this bill. Something that smelled like conspiracy theories.

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Sat Dec 06, 2008 at 07:28 PM PST

LA-2 Results Diary

by RBH

Here's the results so far

U. S. Representative, 2nd Congressional District
139 of 492 precincts reporting
7,764 38.73% William J. Jefferson, D
444 2.22% Malik Rahim, G
178 .89% Gregory W. Kahn, L
11,658 58.16% Anh "Joseph" Cao, R

Yes, a district which gave Obama over 70% is too close to call.

It couldn't happen to a more deserving Democrat, could it?

(under the fold, we compare some precincts from 11/4 to 12/6)

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Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 08:36 PM PDT

How accurate is the dKos tracking poll?

by RBH

For now, it's a question that can't be answered, for obvious reasons. But, we do have facts on the poll.

The current dKos/R2K poll has Obama up 51-40. That poll has four regions and defined which state is in which region.

But, if we take the polls on Electoral-vote, balance them by the percentage of the vote from that state in 2004, then the margin is narrower. (I added a few new polls mentioned on Politics1 too). And the total is 47.9-46 for Obama.

Back to regions, we find that the split on the Research poll was 22 NE/29 S/28 MW/21 W.

The split in the 2004 vote was 22 NE/24 S/34 MW/19 W.

So basically the South is oversampled and the Midwest is undersampled. Which means that Obama's lead may or may not be larger.

More number crunching now?

Poll

If the World Series were held today, who would be your pick to win the series?

39%62 votes
12%20 votes
12%20 votes
14%23 votes
4%7 votes
6%11 votes
9%15 votes

| 158 votes | Vote | Results

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