Since the first series of race ratings were published last month, not a lot has changed. We remain months away from general elections — a political eternity — but it is instructive to look at polling data that consistently shows public opinion has already hardened. There is a large proportion of the American electorate that has resolved to oppose President Barack Obama and the Democrats, as well as a similarly sized proportion resolved to support him while opposing former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and the Republicans.
While the media is eager to seize on any data or analysis that posits the presidential race as a close battle, the occupant of the White House from Jan. 20, 2013, to Jan. 20, 2017, will be decided by the Electoral College, not by the nationwide popular vote. And with state-by-state polling giving the incumbent a clear edge, even in some states he won in 2008 that Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., and Vice President Al Gore lost (Virginia and Colorado, namely), it is hard to argue looking at the data and the dynamics of the race that Obama is not at least somewhat favored.
The media is right about one thing, though: the country is deeply polarized. The electoral map is not likely to look dramatically different than it did in 2008 because Obama simply cannot win over enough of the voters who hate him to significantly expand the map, and Romney cannot win over enough of the voters who hate him to have more than a very narrow path to victory.
Obama could still claim a landslide victory and win more states this year than he did in 2008, but his opportunities to play offense are largely the same as they were when he was first elected over Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.
Meanwhile, Romney could rebound in the polls and capture enough battleground states to edge Obama, but it is extremely difficult to envision him winning more than 290 electoral votes under the best-case scenario. (Obama won 365 electoral votes in 2008. To win, 270 votes are needed of 538 available.)
Last month’s race ratings stuck to analyzing the House and Senate races this year. Those remain on the radar, but aside from some campaign news and a few surprising results in infrequently polled races moving a few ratings around, there have been no dramatic changes. The congressional state of play will be explored later on this week.
For now, let us look at the presidential election, state by state.
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