If Democrats retake the House in November, those new seats will come from different pools of seats, now held by Republicans, that, for reasons that differ from one pool to the next, are vulnerable to being flipped from red to blue. For example, since the reelection of President Obama in 2012, everyone who cares to know has known about one such pool of seats, where three quarters of the 18 GOP seats the Democrats need to retake the House are located. The common vulnerability of the Republicans in these seats stems from one particular fact common to their districts. Fourteen seats, that in 2014 could help Democrats close that gap with House Republicans, were won by Republicans in 2012 in districts that also voted to give President Obama a second term.
These numbers aren't secrets. Daily Kos covered the returns, here. These Obama Plus Republican House Districts lie in a number of states, in various regions, from coast to coast and border to border. Their only common thread is President Obama having won the districts when Republicans won or held the seats in 2012.
Now, with primary match-ups increasingly becoming settled and only about twenty weeks until the election, it becomes increasingly relevant to take a district by district look at the prospects for pick-ups by the Democrats in these districts. Given how much information there is to look at, and the need to refine that look as the election looms closer, this will require a series of posts, which will look at one race at a time, in each of the fourteen OPRHD's, progressing around the country, state by state. California and New York both have three such districts, several states host one or two. Obviously, most states have no such districts. Posts in this series will also discuss changes in outlook or relevant breaking news in these races in districts previously discussed.
Come out into the tall grass for a closer look at the first post of this series, looking at a district in Central California, where, two years ago, voters around Modesto re-elected President Obama by +3.6%, but gave their freshman Republican Congressman a second term, too. There may be some encouraging news for Democrats in this and other such districts.
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