On filibusters, cloture, and obstructionism

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Friday February 27, 2009 · 9:12 AM PST

2009/02/27 · 09:12

I've seen a lot of diaries and comments recently complaining about Republican filibusters and ways of getting around the 60 vote requirement. I count at least one, two, three, four, five, six of these diaries just in the past week. You'd think, based on the outrage, that the Republicans were blocking every bill from coming up for an up-or-down vote. Turns out, not so much. I took a good hard look at the 111th Senate and, in short, filibusters have not been a problem thus far.

Poll

18 votes Show Results

Are you a fan of pre-emptive outrage?

18 votes Vote Now!

Are you a fan of pre-emptive outrage?

7 votes

yes

7 votes

other

4 votes

about those Wyoming term limits...

Yirmiyahu

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Wednesday February 18, 2009 · 2:56 PM PST

2009/02/18 · 14:56

Brownsox just put a blurb up on the frontpage about the possibility of overturning Wyoming's term limit law in order to allow Democratic Governor Dave Freudenthal to serve a 3rd term.

The short version of the story: Wyoming had term limits for its Governor (passed by the legislature) and for its state legislators (passed via ballot initiative). The Wyoming Supreme Court overturned the legislature's term limits in 2004, but did not rule on the gubernatorial term limits.

The Washington Post has an article on the issue, in which they claim:

there is a strong sense that if Freudenthal challenged the constitutionality of his own term limits, it would be a slam-dunk victory for the incumbent.

So, curious about the validity of all this speculation based on a 2004 Wyoming Supreme Court case, I decided to actually read the case.

Poll

42 votes Show Results

Should Dave Freudenthal sue to challenge his term limits?

42 votes Vote Now!

Should Dave Freudenthal sue to challenge his term limits?

Yes

25 votes

17 votes

Lieberman: Let's get the facts straight

Yirmiyahu

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Tuesday November 11, 2008 · 1:08 AM PST

2008/11/11 · 01:08

This issue has been diaried a thousand times in the past couple days, and everyone has their own opinion about what should happen to Lieberman. But a lot of people seem to be confused about some basic facts. I'd like to clarify some things rather than add yet another opinion to the mix.

Poll

196 votes Show Results

What should we do with Lieberman?

196 votes Vote Now!

What should we do with Lieberman?

Kick him out of the caucus, and leave it to the Republicans to assign him some of their committee seats.

44 votes

Let him stay in the caucus, assign him committee seats, but don't let him chair a committee.

62 votes

Let him stay in the caucus, assign him committee seats, and let him chair a minor committee.

54 votes

Let him stay in the caucus, assign him committee seats, and let him chair a major committee in charge of a domestic issue that he can't fuck up.

28 votes

Let him stay in the caucus, assign him committee seats, and let him keep his Homeland Security Committee chair.

8 votes

the myth of VP candidates carrying their homestates (historical analysis)

Yirmiyahu

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Friday July 18, 2008 · 1:49 PM PDT

2008/07/18 · 13:49

A lot of the VP candidate talk (for both candidates) has focused on how the choice of a running-mate can affect the Electoral College math. The conventional wisdom is that a VP candidate can "carry" his/her homestate. I've long believed (and argued) that this is a myth, and should never be a factor in choosing a running-mate. At the very least, the potential for this "home state advantage" is so small that there are undoubtedly many other factors in the selection that should play a much more important role. For instance: choosing someone who would make a good President, appealing to a certain demographic, strengthening a vulnerable issue area, choosing something with media/campaigning chops, etc.

So I did a bit of a historical study into Vice Presidential candidates. My method was fairly simple. I took a look at a VP candidate's homestate's results and compared them to that state's results in the prior Presidential election and the results in the next Presidential election. (If a candidate ran for VP or the Presidency multiple times, I looked at the results for every election until they were no longer a candidate.)

Poll

163 votes Show Results

Who would you want to be Obama's VP?

163 votes Vote Now!

Who would you want to be Obama's VP?

Lyndon Johnson

50 votes

Hubert Humphrey

32 votes

Edmund Muskie

16 votes

Sargent Shriver

13 votes

Walter Mondale

9 votes

Geraldine Ferraro

10 votes

Lloyd Bentsen

26 votes

Joe Lieberman

7 votes

Breaking: Sen. Kennedy's surgery a success

Yirmiyahu

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Monday June 02, 2008 · 11:34 AM PDT

2008/06/02 · 11:34

There's probably gonna be a million diaries like this in the next ten minutes, but the AP and the Boston Globe are reporting that the Senator's surgery is over and that it was successful.

Yirmiyahu

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday May 18, 2008 · 11:01 AM PDT

2008/05/18 · 11:01

Rasmussen has just released poll numbers for the Nebraska Senate election. Mike Johanns (R) is beating Scott Kleeb (D) 55%-40%. For a number of reasons, I think these are very promising numbers.

Yirmiyahu

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Wednesday May 14, 2008 · 2:56 PM PDT

2008/05/14 · 14:56

There has been a lot of talk today about Travis Childers' victory in MS-01 and the Democratic party's current streak of turning Republican seats blue. Though most people seem aware of the current 3-race streak of special election victories, many people probably aren't aware of a much larger trend. After mentioning this in another thread, I was encouraged to write a diary in order to reach a wider audience.

Yirmiyahu

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Friday May 09, 2008 · 8:54 AM PDT

2008/05/09 · 08:54

I'm really disappointed with our focus right now. We've been talking for over a month now about how the primary race is over. Now that the media is final acknowledging this fact, we're celebrating our "victory".

Check out the Rec list. Six of the eight diaries are about Clinton/Obama, and the other two are meta stuff (Mojo Friday and Markos).

Poll

37 votes Show Results

I'd rather...

37 votes Vote Now!

I'd rather...

celebrate Obama's victory over Clinton

9 votes

complain about Clinton's stubbornness

0 votes

note Clinton's racism

3 votes

put progressives in office

25 votes

Latest NC & IN polls (prediction thread)

Yirmiyahu

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday May 05, 2008 · 4:15 PM PDT

2008/05/05 · 16:15

I haven't seen a diary of NC/IN polls recently, so I decided to do it myself. So, I just gathered up all the latest polls out of North Carolina and Indiana.

FiveThirtyEight.com, which makes predictions based on demographic data from past polls, has predicted the margins for every Congressional district in both states. Their models predict a net gain of 17 delegates for Obama (102 to 85). However, in both states, FiveThirtyEight's predictions are more optimistic for Obama than the polls seem to be.

All the polls you could ever want, below the fold.

Poll

433 votes Show Results

Who do you think will win the most delegates in Tuesday's primaries? There are 187 up for grabs.

433 votes Vote Now!

Who do you think will win the most delegates in Tuesday's primaries? There are 187 up for grabs.

Obama by 20+

52 votes

Obama by 15

142 votes

Obama by 10

144 votes

Obama by 5

64 votes

Tie

13 votes

Clinton by 5

9 votes

Clinton by 10

2 votes

Clinton by 15

2 votes

Clinton by 20+

5 votes

Kos' attack on Obama for going on FOX (UNOFFICIAL THREAD)

Yirmiyahu

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday April 28, 2008 · 11:51 AM PDT

2008/04/28 · 11:51

I initially posted this as a comment in Kos' story, but then realized it was lengthy enough to be a diary.

Poll

370 votes Show Results

Obama going on FOX

370 votes Vote Now!

Obama going on FOX

It was a strategic mistake, but didn't consist of caving to the right-wing.

21 votes

It was a good move, but nothing more than political calculation.

95 votes

Good move. Appealing to moderates/conservatives is what Obama is all about.

211 votes

It was a mistake. Obama caved in to the right-wing.

43 votes

'Bittergate' update

Yirmiyahu

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Wednesday April 23, 2008 · 8:35 AM PDT

2008/04/23 · 08:35

I love how the traditional media covered "Bittergate." Small town America was enraged by Obama's elitist comments, remember?

In a national Gallup survey released yesterday, people were asked if they think Obama/Clinton/McCain "looks down on working-class Americans, or respects working-class Americans?"

More people think Obama respects the working class (70%) than think the same about McCain (69%) or Clinton (65%).

Maybe the traditional media is right; Obama is an elitist. Because working class Americans form an elite group who get to choose our next President via secret ballot. It's so unfair to the powerless, disenfranchised traditional media.

RSS

On filibusters, cloture, and obstructionism

about those Wyoming term limits...

Lieberman: Let's get the facts straight

the myth of VP candidates carrying their homestates (historical analysis)

Breaking: Sen. Kennedy's surgery a success

great news for Kleeb in Nebraska (Rasmussen poll)

46-1 since 2004

I'm disappointed in us

Latest NC & IN polls (prediction thread)

Kos' attack on Obama for going on FOX (UNOFFICIAL THREAD)

'Bittergate' update