I've seen a lot of diaries and comments recently complaining about Republican filibusters and ways of getting around the 60 vote requirement. I count at least one, two, three, four, five, six of these diaries just in the past week. You'd think, based on the outrage, that the Republicans were blocking every bill from coming up for an up-or-down vote. Turns out, not so much. I took a good hard look at the 111th Senate and, in short, filibusters have not been a problem thus far.
Brownsox just put a blurb up on the frontpage about the possibility of overturning Wyoming's term limit law in order to allow Democratic Governor Dave Freudenthal to serve a 3rd term.
The short version of the story: Wyoming had term limits for its Governor (passed by the legislature) and for its state legislators (passed via ballot initiative). The Wyoming Supreme Court overturned the legislature's term limits in 2004, but did not rule on the gubernatorial term limits.
The Washington Post has an article on the issue, in which they claim:
there is a strong sense that if Freudenthal challenged the constitutionality of his own term limits, it would be a slam-dunk victory for the incumbent.
So, curious about the validity of all this speculation based on a 2004 Wyoming Supreme Court case, I decided to actually read the case.
This issue has been diaried a thousand times in the past couple days, and everyone has their own opinion about what should happen to Lieberman. But a lot of people seem to be confused about some basic facts. I'd like to clarify some things rather than add yet another opinion to the mix.
A lot of the VP candidate talk (for both candidates) has focused on how the choice of a running-mate can affect the Electoral College math. The conventional wisdom is that a VP candidate can "carry" his/her homestate. I've long believed (and argued) that this is a myth, and should never be a factor in choosing a running-mate. At the very least, the potential for this "home state advantage" is so small that there are undoubtedly many other factors in the selection that should play a much more important role. For instance: choosing someone who would make a good President, appealing to a certain demographic, strengthening a vulnerable issue area, choosing something with media/campaigning chops, etc.
So I did a bit of a historical study into Vice Presidential candidates. My method was fairly simple. I took a look at a VP candidate's homestate's results and compared them to that state's results in the prior Presidential election and the results in the next Presidential election. (If a candidate ran for VP or the Presidency multiple times, I looked at the results for every election until they were no longer a candidate.)
There's probably gonna be a million diaries like this in the next ten minutes, but the AP and the Boston Globe are reporting that the Senator's surgery is over and that it was successful.
There has been a lot of talk today about Travis Childers' victory in MS-01 and the Democratic party's current streak of turning Republican seats blue. Though most people seem aware of the current 3-race streak of special election victories, many people probably aren't aware of a much larger trend. After mentioning this in another thread, I was encouraged to write a diary in order to reach a wider audience.
I'm really disappointed with our focus right now. We've been talking for over a month now about how the primary race is over. Now that the media is final acknowledging this fact, we're celebrating our "victory".
Check out the Rec list. Six of the eight diaries are about Clinton/Obama, and the other two are meta stuff (Mojo Friday and Markos).
I haven't seen a diary of NC/IN polls recently, so I decided to do it myself. So, I just gathered up all the latest polls out of North Carolina and Indiana.
FiveThirtyEight.com, which makes predictions based on demographic data from past polls, has predicted the margins for every Congressional district in both states. Their models predict a net gain of 17 delegates for Obama (102 to 85). However, in both states, FiveThirtyEight's predictions are more optimistic for Obama than the polls seem to be.
All the polls you could ever want, below the fold.
I initially posted this as a comment in Kos' story, but then realized it was lengthy enough to be a diary.
I love how the traditional media covered "Bittergate." Small town America was enraged by Obama's elitist comments, remember?
In a national Gallup survey released yesterday, people were asked if they think Obama/Clinton/McCain "looks down on working-class Americans, or respects working-class Americans?"
More people think Obama respects the working class (70%) than think the same about McCain (69%) or Clinton (65%).
Maybe the traditional media is right; Obama is an elitist. Because working class Americans form an elite group who get to choose our next President via secret ballot. It's so unfair to the powerless, disenfranchised traditional media.
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