RAND ALP may be indicating a significant shift in the race

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Wednesday October 24, 2012 · 3:24 AM PDT

2012/10/24 · 03:24

As of 4AM ET, Obama's standing in the RAND American Life Panel is now 49.19% to Romney's 45.34%. That's almost a 2 point shift (1.95 points) over the course of a single day. Since RAND has been running this election forecast (July 11th), that's the second largest single day shift towards Obama. The largest shift toward Obama was from the 6th to the 7th of September, the day after the DNC ended, where Obama gained 2.42 points. The third largest shift was from the 16th to the 17th of October, after the town hall debate at Hofstra University, where Obama gained.

A couple things about these bumps. First of all, I think we can all agree that RAND was ahead of the curve on the post-convention shift. RAND for the month after the convention generally reflected most conventional polling in showing a rise in support for Obama. The shift following the second debate, however, was short-lived. By the time of the third debate, Obama's numbers had regressed right back to their lowest point after the first debate. Now, given the partisan nature of the electorate and the minimal remaining undecideds, the cautious approach here would be to assume Obama's numbers will regress the way they did after the second debate. However, there are some key numbers in some of RAND's other graphs that lead me to believe this is a more significant movement toward Obama. Follow me past the jump as I explain...

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Is this a genuine shift in the race?

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BREAKING: Texas Republicans lose again on redistricting

Zutroy

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Tuesday August 28, 2012 · 2:09 PM PDT

2012/08/28 · 14:09

What this means, I don't even know yet. As many of you may recall, Texas courts rejected the original maps gerrymandered by Republicans back in December, which led to court-drawn maps which were highly favorable to Texas Democrats. The court-drawn maps were then thrown out by the Supreme Court in January, which evidently led to the interim maps they had up until now...

Zutroy

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Monday August 27, 2012 · 10:50 AM PDT

2012/08/27 · 10:50

Now, it's official. We're not just talking about something the VP candidate proposed a year or two ago. The GOP, as a whole, has gone full steam ahead in their quest to gut Medicare and Medicaid, and they're making no real attempts to conceal it.

Let me qualify this by saying that the contents of the platform, originally leaked Friday, are only a draft. According to TPM:

The platform, snagged by Politico on Friday night after the Republican National Committee accidentally posted it to its website before taking it down, is scheduled to be approved at the convention early this week.

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When the GOP platform still advocate Vouchercare by the time the full convention votes on it?

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When the GOP platform still advocate Vouchercare by the time the full convention votes on it?

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1 vote

Hirono beats Case in HI Senate primary

Zutroy

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Sunday August 12, 2012 · 1:13 AM PDT

2012/08/12 · 01:13

THANK. GOD.

I'm sure Ed Case could have beaten Linda Lingle in the general -- but, my god, would he have been a pill in the Senate. Thankfully, it looks like Mazie Hirono has prevailed with almost 70% of precincts in. Her win looks pretty convincing with 56.7% of the vote so far. So much for Case's BS internal polls.

Zutroy

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Thursday June 28, 2012 · 7:54 PM PDT

2012/06/28 · 19:54

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

Conservative firebrand Michael Savage is not known to mince words--one of his favorite adjectives is "Islamofacist," and in 2007 he was banned from entering the United Kingdom on grounds of extremism.
But on Thursday, the popular radio talk show host's outspokenness veered into particularly strange territory when he suggested that Chief Justice John Roberts' epilepsy medication was responsible for his decision to uphold President Obama's health care law.

"Let's talk about Roberts," Savage said. "I'm going to tell you something that you're not gonna hear anywhere else, that you must pay attention to. It's well known that Roberts, unfortunately for him, has suffered from epileptic seizures. Therefore he has been on medication. Therefore neurologists will tell you that medication used for seizure disorders, such as epilepsy, can introduce mental slowing, forgetfulness and other cognitive problems. And if you look at Roberts' writings you can see the cognitive disassociation (sic) in what he is saying..."

You can listen to the audio at Real Clear Politics.

Hadn't seen this anywhere else here, so I thought I'd post it.

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RAND ALP may be indicating a significant shift in the race

BREAKING: Texas Republicans lose again on redistricting

Vouchercare included in GOP platform

Hirono beats Case in HI Senate primary

Michael Savage implies Roberts rendered his decision while high on medication