The following quotes are from a recent USA Today article titled, “Iowa Poll: Republicans and Democrats each see advantage in impeachment inquiry”. The individuals that the article quotes are actually respondents to Ann Seltzer’s recent Des Moines Register poll.
Todd’s World
“Personally, I think the whole basis for the impeachment is made up, and I think it’s going to burn the Democrats,” said Todd Shafer, a 53-year-old Republican poll respondent from Ankeny.
Shafer, who works in the financial sector, said he believes Trump’s actions were within the normal realm of foreign policy and that the president was within his rights to ask the Ukrainians to address areas of concern before sending the country military aid. He said that Democrats are stretching to say that Trump engaged in a quid pro quo and that the media aren’t correcting the record.
“I think you’re going to get a large percentage of voters that are going to vote for Trump because of the media,” he said.
Ginny’s World
Ginny Ordman, a 64-year-old poll respondent and an Iowa City Democrat, was watching former ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch testify in the impeachment inquiry when she answered a call from a reporter on Friday. She said having witnesses testify under oath and on camera is bolstering the Democrats’ case.
“I believe the public hearings are adding credibility to the impeachment investigation and showing exactly what happened, the facts,” the retired high school teacher said.
Ordman, who names Biden as her first choice for president, said that Republicans are trying to turn the public’s attention away from Trump’s behavior by saying “there’s nothing there” and calling for Hunter Biden to be investigated. She said Republican calls to focus on the Bidens don’t impact her view of them.
“I'm not worried because I think that was 100% President Trump's intent, to drag down the name and to look for anything with zero substance to support it," she said. "I'm not going to let him get away with that. And I feel pretty bad for both Bidens for having their names dragged through the mud in this fashion when there's no evidence.”
If it’s not already obvious, Daily Kos lives in Ginny’s world. We believe that the public hearings will bring greater visibility to the obvious crimes committed by Trump, and that the “public” at large will see the evidence, hear the damage being done to the country, and support impeachment. We are also very aware of the existence of Todd, and that he’s creating his own world, but we like to think that Todd is a racist, xenophobic, misogynistic moron (or just “deplorable” if you like to use fewer adjectives).
We obviously know the top-line numbers by now. Nationally, the RCP average has 49.8% of the public supporting the impeachment inquiry, and 48.5% supporting removal. But, life in Ginny’s World and Todd’s World is a bit different. 83.2% of Democrats support removal, compared to 85.6% of Republicans who oppose removal. The elusive independents (and both Ginny and Todd are convinced that Independents don’t really exist or are too stupid to understand what’s going on) are very evenly split (42% yes to remove, 44.4% no to remove).
So there we have it. Partisan divide. Classic 21st century political crisis. Made even worse because one chamber of congress is controlled by Ginny’s World, and the other by Todd’s World.
Down the Todd Rabbit Hole
If Ginny and Todd both arrived at their respective world views through careful deliberation of the facts in some sort of Rawlsian utopia, we might be able to understand and respect this partisan divide. However, it’s more accurate to say that we occupy a “through the looking glass” world right now. The Ginnys among us (and aren’t we all Ginny), already know the universe of facts that condemn Trump to the ignominy of impeachment. Please reference the at least (and I’m guessing) 16 articles on the Daily Kos Front Page right now for a good taste of Ginny’s world view.
Todd’s world view; however, is almost always presented as a caricature in Ginny’s World. Look what these knuckledragger’s are saying over there! Can you believe these conspiracy theories! So racist, so wrong. If you enter Todd’s world for awhile (and don’t we all, from time-to-time, venture into our dark place for a taste of the crazy), you’ll find a completely different fact set. A completely different coherent narrative that replaces the facts in Ginny’s world with other facts deemed more relevant. For instance, in Todd’s world (fair warning, some of these bullet points include links to opinion writers in Todd’s World, and they will make you very angry):
There are all sorts of factual nuances being constructed in Todd’s World around these four central pillars. For example, many in Todd’s World believe that the IC IG’s office coordinated with Schiff and the whistle blower to change the regulations around whistle blowing so that he or she could legally forward the report on to the Intelligence Committee. That’s pretty baroque, but it’s indicative of the level of intellectual effort being constructed to support the edifice of their belief in Trump’s innocence.
Ginny’s World actually has the media its side for once, so if you happen to Google any of the above bullet points you’ll get a string of first-page articles debunking these points. But, that makes it all the more amazing that Todd’s World has formed itself into something with widespread support. You have to REALLY, REALLY work hard to live in Todd’s World. You have to ignore all the major media outlets. You have to enter bizarrely specific search terms to produce articles that reinforce your bias. But, nonetheless, Todd’s World appears to be both stable, and perhaps growing among Republicans.
You Must Have Watched A Different Hearing
Given the articles of fact in Todd’s World, it’s perhaps not surprising to hear that Todd believes the hearings will actually improve Trump’s election chances in 2020. In fact, 60% of registered Republicans in the Des Moines Register Poll believe the hearings will make it easier for Trump to win re-election. Of the 55% of Republicans that say they are following the impeachment hearings closely, or very closely, 72% believe that the impeachment hearings will make it easier to re-elect Trump. The same dynamic is taking place in Ginny’s World, although we’re less confident (only 45%) that it will help a Democratic nominee win in 2020.
We are sitting in our separate Worlds, consuming our separate facts, and coming to completely opposite conclusions about the same public hearings. This is why the impeachment hearings won’t convince Republican senators to convict. To do so, according to their Todd World supporters, would betray the very fabric of reality.
An Unpopular Opinion
This leads me to an opinion that I know is unpopular in Ginny’s World. The impeachment hearings will fail. They will not convince moderate GOP senators to support removal, they will not convince Republican voters to abandon Trump at the polls, and they, unfortunately, will not save our Republic from a Trump presidency. Only the 2020 elections will give us that opportunity. We’re not going to convince Republicans to abandon Trump, we’re going to convince the disaffected, the discriminated against, the persecuted and abandoned in America to vote for the right candidate in November 2020. The power of our ideas will win us the presidency. Our candidates, and their policy-filled, positive messages will beat Trump.
I’m a recently arrived Iowan (although a born and raised Midwesterner), and I can attest to the fact that Trump country is pretty fucking upset at the world. They are watching their farms being sold in bankruptcy proceedings because of a trade war with China. They are suffering, like all Americans, from a lack of quality, affordable health care. They are watching their schools (and Iowans take particular pride in their local public schools) cut corners and make due with less. College is becoming harder to afford, jobs are more temporary and pay less on average, and housing costs continue to rise despite stagnant wages for younger members of the workforce.
Our candidates are offering real solutions to these problems. We need to place ALL of our efforts on promoting our candidates. With the prospect that the impeachment trial (if there is one), will take place in January before key Democratic primaries, we could actually see many of our most talented voices for change taken off the campaign trail so they can sit in a Republican-controlled impeachment trial and listen to the irrelevant rantings of Todd’s World. Let’s let go of our hope for impeachment, and focus our hope on 2020. Hold the remaining hearings, draft the articles if necessary, but shelve a vote on impeachment.