(First posted at apostropher.com)
I've said many times below that the Democratic race is still too close to call based on the actual delegate counts, and that's true - a mere 15 delegates separate Kerry and Edwards and the smallest state holding a primary on Tuesday, North Dakota, gives out more than that. But momentum is indeed a real factor, until it is stopped. That stop, as Dean's campaign discovered, can come quickly and without warning.
On discussion boards around the web, many commenters are lighting into Kerry's and Edwards' stands on specific issues - No Child Left Behind, Patriot Act, etc - and the campaign that Rove can run against them. This misses the point, in my never particularly humble opinion. This election will not be a referendum on the Democratic candidate; much more so than any recent election, it will be a referendum on the incumbent. I'm increasingly confident that he is going to lose that referendum... as long as the Democratic nominee doesn't implode.
That, in a nutshell is Dean's problem, and Clark's as well. The Iowa and Trippi debacles, along with Dean's tendency to make statements that he spends the next week clarifying, all contribute to a picture of campaign that is almost, but not quite, in control of itself. Clark is new to the retail politics game, and I've watched his campaign holding my breath, waiting for the next wince-evincing slip-up, which gets delivered on just about a weekly basis. Put simply, these guys don't look like professionals and they make voters who just want Bush removed nervous.
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