This is a short diary...Still processing this South Carolina information.
This is shocking. MSNBC just reported that Obama managed to tie Clinton with white male voters in South Carolina. Wow.
The obvious Clinton strategy was to paint Obama as the "black candidate". Bill Clinton even invoked Jesse Jackson's campaign in trying to minimize the significance of Obama's victory.
But Obama tied Clinton with white male voters. There goes the myth that white southerners won't support a black candidate.
Below is the current delegate count after Nevada. It looks like this will be a long nomination process, and with any luck, our Texas primary on March 4 will actually matter.
38 - Barack Obama
36 - Hillary Clinton
18 - John Edwards
0 - Joe Biden
0 - Chris Dodd
0 - Mike Gravel
0 - Dennis Kucinich
0 - Bill Richardson
If the young folks actually turn out tonight to take back their country, then Barack will win the Iowa caucuses.
Obama - 46%
Clinton - 31%
Edwards - 8%
Obama, Paul Win MySpace Primary
As MySpace goes, so goes the nation?
Perhaps not, but the Web's biggest social networking site has released the results of the inaugural MySpace Presidential Primary just in time for today's Iowa caucuses, which kick off the 2008 presidential election season.
Overall, MySpace said that 153,226 members voted in the online primary.
Obama took in 46 percent of the Democratic vote, trailed by Sen. Hillary Clinton's 31 percent. Meanwhile, Paul's surprising win came with 37 percent of the MySpace Republican vote, with former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee taking the second and third place slots at 18 and 16 percent, respectively.
My preferred candidate, Barack Obama, is at demographic disadvantage in Iowa. His base is young people and minorities, two groups that likely won't make up a big block of caucus voters.
There's been a lot of news coverage about whether or not Iowa's young people will finally show up at the caucuses this time. But there hasn't been much discussion of the small but active minority population in Iowa. That's why I found this story interesting...
For anyone wondering how Ronnie Earle's son did in his runoff, he got creamed. Not even close: 67%-33%. Because Ronnie has been in the national spotlight for his prosecution of Tom Delay, many thought the younger Earle would win overwhelmingly on name rec alone. Turns out you have to actually be a good candidate too.
For those who could use a little background:
Jason Earle was the presumptive favorite from Day 1 - with veteran political consultants predicting he would cruise to victory with about 75% of the vote. Throughout the campaign, however, he proved to be a terrible candidate with no passion and no grasp of the issues whatsoever.
Valinda Bolton, our new Democratic nominee in TX-47 is like a PTA mom who lives down the street. She's just great. She's very warm and genuine - a total pleasure to be around. Though I think her win was probably more of a referendum against Jason, she did a great job and her campaign seems to have had a good ground game.
I went in with a negative view of Biden, but he just gave a memorable
speech at the LBJ auditorium. He spoke about national security and the need for straight talk and shared sacrifice. That's a tough message to deliver, but Biden hit it out of the park. He actually explained detailed policy solutions without coming across as too wonkish. He advocated an interesting idea about having lots of substantive town hall debates between the presidential candidates across the country...an idea that Republicans probably would never let happen (unless someone like McCain got the nomination.)
Some random Saturday thoughts...
I have been supporting Mark Warner for a while now. But I've kept a close eye on Russ Feingold. I wish Feingold could win in this country. And maybe he can. But he's definitely an electoral risk. In all likelihood, he couldn't compete in all 50 states. He would have to hit the "triple bank-shot" of Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania. There would be no room for error.
Warner, however, could put more states in play. If we're to become a majority party again, we've got compete in all 50 states by wining back middle class rural voters. Warner could beat Hillary Clinton in the primary by running as Bill Clinton-esque southern democrat campaign.
This morning on NBC's Meet the Press
, Russert got McCain to go on record against a free press in Iraq. McCain said, "If that's the only way you get stories in, then I'm not terribly offend by it, Tim."
This may be the craziest thing I've ever heard McCain say, and the list seems to growing at a faster pace these days.
I used to like John McCain, but he's off his rocker now. He wants to be President so bad that he's losing his common sense appeal in his effort to impress the right wing nuts who decide the Republican primary. Apparently, he recently called Murtha "too emotional" and said Kerry lacked enough "strength" to offer solutions to Iraq. It seems as if McCain thinks he's the only war hero in America, and other veterans are pansies. McCain is trying to court the war-hungry Bush right-wingers, and it's an ugly thing to watch.
Democrats respond to Bush's Iraq speech.
Whereas John Kerry's response speech rambled, Feingold was sharp in his response. Norah O'Donnell threw all the Repub talking points at Feingold, and he responded well. His main points were that Bush has confused Iraq with 9/11 and that our military presence is fueling the insurgents...which Bush doesn't seem to understand.
But I'm most impressed with Feingold's attitude and tone. He comes across as a straight shooter, and that will appeal to swing voters looking for change. While I don't share the venom that some kossacks tossed at Mark Warner for his Iraq plan, I'm becoming more open to a Feingold candidacy in 2008. I still think Warner has the best shot at electoral victory, and that's all that really matters. But Feingold impreses me every time I watch him, and I hope he continues to speak up.
I'm still leaning towards Mark Warner for 2008, but Feingold
performed quite well with George Stephanopoulos this morning. He answered the faith question well. He answered the liberal question well. He answered the national security question well. And most importantly, in my opinion, he stated that universal health care is his top priority. He finished by saying that America needs a "cheesehead president".
I predict a legendary Warner-Feingold-Clinton battle in 2008. I'm still supporting Warner because it would be naive to ignore the historical advantage that southern governors have over northern senators, and Warner's recent Meet the Press performance was impressive. The country is fed up with the Bush agenda, and Warner has the ability to win over those important swing votes.
Having said that, I would be very inspired by a Feingold campaign that embraces liberal values. Gore couldn't sell liberalism. Kerry couldn't either. Maybe Feingold is the messenger we've been looking for?
Bob Gammage could truly spice things up in the Lone Star State. He's currently living the peaceful life in Llano, but he's pissed off at what Rick Perry has done to Texas. The Statesman
follows the BOR
and the Democratic Undergound
in reporting about Gammage's potential run for Texas governor
. Gammage has been a state rep, state senator, us congressman and supreme court justice...and he supposedly can fire up a crowd. He's got the Wes Clark netroots community behind him, and he's run statewide before.