Anyone who has been following Nate Silver's projections for the House races this November knows that he doesn't see good things for the Democrats. But this morning he has an interesting article titled Number of Competitive House Races Doubles from Recent Years.
The title is a bit misleading. Because here's the opening paragraph:
The House forecast that we released on Friday establishes an over-under line for Republican gains at a net of 47 or 48 seats. But, as I noted at the end of the article, the confidence interval on this forecast is very wide. Its margin of error is about ±30 seats — meaning that a gain of as few as 17 seats, or as many as 78, is entirely possible — and there is a small chance of even larger or smaller gains.
Whoa!!!!! +/- 30 seats???? That's a HUGE margin of error.
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