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While the major media outlets seem not to have updated their presidential election results in several days, David Leip has and it shows Mr. Obama expanding his lead to more than 3.1%. He now has nearly a 4 million vote cushion (check that out, Donald!) and there are still lots of votes to be counted.  As we all already know, the President won't reach his 2008 total, but he still has the two highest popular vote totals in presidential election history.  

Even more amusing is the now all but certain outcome that Mitt Romney will see his vote total rounded down to 47%.  The presidents popular vote victory comes even though lost about 1 million votes as a result of Hurricane Sandy.  Unlike those in the right wing echo chamber, it is clear to any political scientist that he likely would have won the vote with nearly a 5% margin had it not been for that superstorm.  Yes folks, the storm cost the President votes and did not change the outcome of the election.  

The President had the better message, campaign, and candidate.  I look for more great things from him in the next 4 years and beyond.


Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 05:41 PM PST

CNN National tied at 49

by daninoah

That is among likely voters.  The best news is that the President is at 51% job approval, matching his highest level is at least a year.  This poll shows what we have seen in the national polls the last few days:  substantial movement to the President.  He has a clear lead in the electoral college, a growing lead in the national polls, and a job approval over 50.  He has won this election.


Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 01:55 PM PDT

Even Dick Morris is hedging

by daninoah

While erstwhile douchebag and wrongheaded foot fiend Dick Morris still thinks Mittens will win this thing, he is freaking hard about the polls today.  He focuses on Rasmussen's tracker, some mysterious poll that had shown Romney up in Pennsylvania but now has the state tied, and the President's job approval now up to 50.

Here's some choice verbiage:

This race is not over yet! And with a media determined to re-elect Obama, we may see the president’s recovery continue unless we step up our own efforts to thwart it.
We are still likely to win. The undecided vote always goes against the incumbent and all the polling suggests we will be more successful than they will be at turning out our vote. But, early warning signs must be headed.
Bottom line: WORK LIKE HELL!!!
Again with the canard of undecideds breaking to the challenger.  The whole wingnuttasphere is really setting this up as a "blame it on Sandy" loss next week.  We all know that is crap, but who cares what they say or how they say it.  We are in great shape with 4 days to go.

Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 10:00 PM PDT

Breaking Q poll in Ohio: O + 5!

by daninoah

And he is tied in Florida and Virginia.  No huge details, but just the article from Mercury News.

This may explain Nate Silver's new great numbers for the President.  If these are not yet factored in, then they'll get even better.  Do we smell a second term?  YES!


We have all (me included) gasped and gawked and wrung hands and clutched pearls over the polling over the past week.  But, as many have told us repeatedly, an incumbent POTUS who is at 50% job approval on election day wins reelection.  Period.  At 49%, he usually wins.  Well, looking at Obama's job approval over the last ten days, we see that on October 1, President Obama had a net +.3% approve/disapprove number, with his approval at 48.8%. And on the date of the debate, his job approval had risen to 49.7%.  After that horrendous debate, of course his approval would plummet and probably be negative, right? Wrong!!  This morning, the President is at a net + 2.5 %, with his approval at 49.9%.  That is only .1% off his all time high in the RCP average this year.  

Even GOP leaning Rasmussen has the President's job approval today at 51-48, and Mr. Obama is up by a point head to head.  This compares to a two point lead by the President the morning of last weeks debate.  

So, time to settle down (me included) and know that the storm has passed, our President is doing what he needs to do to get reelected, and the country really likes him.  


I'm trying to be a realist, so bear with me here.  I know we've not gotten too many polls post-debate, but what we are seeing and hearing is not good.  Rasmussen has gone from 49-47 Obama to Romney up by the same amount.  His job approval is still at 50, so that is not so bad.  But I have a good idea that the polling over the next week will really be a downer for those of us here who want a second Obama term.  
Many of us can point to Friday's job numbers, but I don't think they are the game changer that the debate was.  There are not 60 million voters on their computers waiting for those numbers.  And even if there were, it wouldn't amount to nearly as much as the debacle on Wednesday night.  I have the same feeling now as I did in 2004 on the day of the Iowa caucus, when Howard Dean let out the scream heard round the world.  I (and so many other friends) devoted so many hours (and lots of money) to his campaign, and saw it build so that he was correctly viewed as the prohibitive front runner.  The scream changed the campaign for good.  When we were all watching it, I just left the room and muttered to myself "it's all over."  My friends were not so sanguine but, sadly, I turned out correct.  I don't see Wednesday night in the same way, but it's still not good.  Obama better be on his game in two weeks, or it will be bleak.

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Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 05:58 AM PDT

Obama again up 2 in Rasmussen

by daninoah

Quick diary:  

Obama 47-45

50-47 with leaners

Interesting is that Romney leads by 4 with independents, which is not what other polls are showing.  Remember, Rasmussen does not call cell phones.  It tries to supplement this by using online surveys.  30% of voters do not have landlines, and those people will vote for Obama 2-1.

Obama holds 4 pts better with his party.



The Rand Corporation has established a tracking poll called the American Life Panel. They have been polling the same 3500 voters since July 5.  They update their results every morning at 1:00 am.  It's no shock that President Obama is leading in their poll.  They have lots of "sub-polls," including intention to vote, predicted winner, and those changing their votes from one candidate to another.  And each day, they have a different analysis based upon some other metric (today is was predicted winner based upon employment status of the voter).  Other unique daily polls looked at voting by region, race, or economic status.  

Today, the President leads by slightly more than 3 points (48.28 - 45).  He has consistently led for nearly the entire time, save for a few days in July and the time surrounding the GOP convention.  However, our President has lead by substantial margins on "predicted winner" since inception of the poll.  His lowest margin was 10 points, and is currently at 13%.


I think we will find no opposition to the senior senator from Connecticut, Joseph Lieberman (LIP) being dispatched from any leadership role in the next Congress, and be barred from  being allowed to caucus with the Democratic majority.  If he wants to vote for our causes, so be it.  However, he needs to be banished, and banished now.  

Not only did he actively support John McCain for president, he did much else:

  1.   Attacked President-elect Obama regarding foreign and domestic policy
  1.   Addressed the GOP convention, and not only supported McCain, but attacked Mr. Obama
  1.   Helped prepare Sarah Palin for her media rollout (I guess we should thank him for that one)
  1.   Actively supported Palin, and praised the choice.
  1.   Sought the Veep nod from the GOP
  1.   Campaigned around the country for McCain.
  1.   Never said a word as Obama was branded a terrorist, socialist, muslim, alien, or any of the other attacks against our next president.
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Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 08:27 AM PDT

Wassup!!  The funniest ad this year!

by daninoah

We all remember the "wassup" Budweiser commercials.  Well, the folks at Unruly media have outdone themselves.  Watch the whole thing unless you are in a place where you can't laugh your ass off.

This ad encapsulates with great humor the ravages of the Bush Administration:  failing economy; the disaster in Iraq; health care crisis; the stock market meltdown; and the inept (err indifferent) responses to natural disasters.

Here it is:


Those of you outside the South Bay of the Los Angeles area (South of LAX down to San Pedro, serving the cities of El Segundo, Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, Redondo Beach, Torrance, Palos Verdes, Carson, and Lomita) should know that the local paper, The Daily Breeze has for the first time ever endorsed a Democrat for president.

This is a very big deal.  The editorial page is quite conservative, with frequent columns by Dennis Prager, Laura Ingraham, Cal Thomas, George Will, and others.  Here is their very simple but pointed lead in:

Though the Daily Breeze has endorsed candidates from both major political parties for the offices of U.S. Senate on down, we have for decades endorsed Republican candidates for president. That streak ends today.

We endorse Barack Obama for the nation's top elected post only after much retrospection about the last eight years, the current financial meltdown and what seems to be a very uncertain future. We're certainly not experts in economics, foreign policy, retooling our infrastructure or energy policies. What we do know, however, is that current policies are not working.

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Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 05:12 AM PDT

Rasmussen:  O + 2 in N. Carolina!!!

by daninoah

Now we know why Mr. McCain chose to "suspend" his campaign.  Actually, in craps parlance, he placed a sucker's bet, like the field, corner, or "C & E."  Anyway, Obama is leading in North Carolina for the first time, by a margin of 49-47.  And this is from Republican pollster Scott Rasmussen.  I think this McCain gambit is all the guy has left in in pea shooter.

Obama scores well with Dems and indies:

Eighty-five percent (85%) of Democrats now say they’ll vote for Obama, up from 79% a week ago. The Democrat also has a ten-point lead among unaffiliated voters. McCain gets the vote from 89% of Republicans.

And 81% of his voters are enthusiastic.  He also has high favorabilities. On the downside, McCain is getting 64% of white voters.

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