NC vote-by-mail trends continue Dem after 2 weeks

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Friday September 19, 2014 · 9:47 AM PDT

2014/09/19 · 09:47

Last week I blogged about the unusual Democratic trend in mail-in ballots in North Carolina after 8 days of the 60 day period http://www.dailykos.com/... All is update below

Democrats have a big margin so far in the traditional GOP dominated mode of vote-by-mail in North Carolina, with a 19.6% swing from 2010 when the GOP carried NC

Now we are two full weeks into absentee voting and the party proportion numbers are remaining steady. 12,069 total requests have been received by the counties. Those 12,000+ requests break down by party at D41.3%, R25.9%, U22.4%, and Libertarian 0.3%

There are 1158 absentee votes already received back by the counties and accepted, by party Democratic 46.3%, Republican 35.9%, Libertarian 0.2%, Unaffiliated 17.6%. (compared with the week one totals: Democratic 46.7%, Republican 35.8%, Libertarian 0.3%, Unaffiliated 17.2%) Black voters cumulatively make up 15.0% of the total, up slightly from week 1 total. Black voters only made up 8% of the 2010 mail-in vote. Democrats have a big margin so far in the traditional GOP dominated mode of vote-by-mail.

In 2010 there were a total of 53,200 vote by mail ballots accepted during the 60-day period, Democratic 36.1%, Republican 45.2%, Unaffiliated 18.6%, Libertarian 0.1%. Blacks were 8.7% of voted 2010 by-mail ballots. Thus the small sample of 1,158 votes by mail accepted by so far shows a 19.6 point swing from R to D compared with the full 2010 pool (D+10.2%, R-9.4%). If we also look at the 12,000 ballots requested compared with the 1,100+ returned, we also see that Democrats are returning their ballots much faster than the GOP registered voters!

Is all of this an early energy burst or sustainable trend? I asked the same question after one week, the second week sustained the trend pretty closely. If anything Democratic stats are picking up. The ballots returned back and accepted on Thursday alone were almost exactly 50% Democratic.

Wake County (Raleigh and Cary), a county that the GOP carried in 2010, with 10% of the state's total population, had 51 absentee requests Thursday (16% of the state total received yesterday). By party yesterday in Wake: D49%, R16%, U35%.

NC has registration with party and race noted in the voter file making this analysis possible. We of course don't know how anyone voted in 2014, ballots will be counted election day.

some nice charts and bar graphs of all of this by Catawba College political science professor Michael Bitzer:
http://nc-politics.blogspot.com/...
Bitzer noted this morning "This may start to sound like a broken record (is that still a viable comment nowadays with MP3s and iPods?), but the partisan trend in North Carolina's mail-in absentee ballots (early votes) has been holding steady for some time, and continues with today's data from the NC State Board of Elections' website."

also see
http://nc-politics.blogspot.com/...

and thru WEDNESDAY (as of Friday noon EDT) at Professor Michael McDonald's US Election project
http://www.electproject.org/... ElectProject is a dynamic page so I may have been updated by the time you view.

NC vote by mail shows 20% swing to Dems after first week compared with 2010 totals

dean4ever

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Saturday September 13, 2014 · 8:16 AM PDT

2014/09/13 · 08:16

We are 8 days into the North Carolina 60-day vote by mail absentee request period (earliest in the nation), 9668 total requests have been received by the counties. The top six counties are: Mecklenburg (Charlotte) 1381, Wake (Raleigh and Cary) 1182, Guilford (Greensboro) 683, Forsyth (Winston-Salem) 500, Buncombe (Asheville) 405, Durham (Durham) 353, (Those counties are 34% of the State population and 46% of requests. In 2010 those six counties made up 38.8% of the voted by-mail ballots).

There are 377 absentee votes already received back by the counties and accepted, Democratic 46.7%, Republican 35.8%, Libertarian 0.3%, Unaffiliated 17.2%. Black voters make up 14.9% of total. Democrats have a big margin so far in the traditional GOP dominated mode of vote-by-mail. In 2010 there were a total of 53,200 vote by mail ballots accepted during the 60-day period, Democratic 36.1%, Republican 45.2%, Unaffiliated 18.6%, Libertarian 0.1%. Blacks were 8.7% of voted 2010 by-mail ballots. Thus the small sample of 377 votes by mail accepted by so far shows a 20 point swing from R to D compared with the full 2010 pool (D+10.6%, R-9.4%). Early energy burst or sustainable trend?

Tiny rural Bladen County shows the heaviest organizing as % of county population, 220 vote-by-mail requests, Democratic 73.6%, Unaffiliated 23.6%, GOP 2.7%. Black voters make up 52% of the Bladen requests. Bladen has 22,498 registered voters, 12.2% of whom are GOP and 37% are Black.

Here's the Civitas 2010 vote tracker, http://www.carolinatransparency.com/...
and the spreadsheet of 2014 votes accepted ftp://alt.ncsbe.gov/...

NC has registration with party and race noted in the voter file making this analysis possible. We of course don't know how anyone voted in 2014, ballots will be counted election day

Yes I know 377 is a small sample, but in 2010 we got to 377 accepted ballots September 23, day 21 of 60, this year we got to that number on day 8 of 60. That's one measure of voter enthusiasm

UPDATE 1: (2pm EDT) Catawba College Political ScienceProf (and Provost) Michael Bitzer blogs on the 2014 NC vote by mail stats with lots of bar graphs and more analysis
http://nc-politics.blogspot.com/...

Dems start fast out of the box: NC mail-in voting starts

dean4ever

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday September 07, 2014 · 6:26 AM PDT

2014/09/07 · 06:26

North Carolina has one of the closest Senate races in the nation, with incumbent Senator Kay Hagan facing off against NC House Speaker Thom Tillis. NC starts mail-in absentee balloting 60 days before the election, earliest voting in the nation. The NC State Board of Elections has voter files at ftp://alt.ncsbe.gov/... that can be data mined. This years data shows that compared with 2010, mail-in requests have jumped 96% on this year's day 1 (Friday 9/5 this year), from 3337 to 6459 civilian in-country requests (there have also been about 1100 military and overseas requests). Now, usually mail-in voting in NC heavily benefits the GOP, but this year there has been a massive shift towards the Democrats, with a HUGE jump in Black turnout. (NC has registration by party, with race, sex and age in database) MORE BELOW THE JUMP

dean4ever

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Tuesday September 11, 2012 · 2:39 PM PDT

2012/09/11 · 14:39

NC released its early vote schedule today for the 10/18 to 11/3 period and it features more weekend voting with the same total number of days and EV sites as '08, but less sites the first few weekdays. List at: http://www.ncsbe.gov/... more below:

dean4ever

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Thursday September 06, 2012 · 3:31 PM PDT

2012/09/06 · 15:31

North Carolina is the first state in the nation to start voting -- counties can send out ballots as early as tomorrow 9/7, though late conventions and multiple ballot styles due to overlapping districts (Wake for example has 100+ different ballots) will delay many until as late as the 21st. Orange County (Chapel Hill) starts mailout on the 11th, election junkies can see their sample ballots at http://www.co.orange.nc.us/... According to http://reed.edu/... state #2 is KY starting 9/17.

NC margin for O 14,179, turnout up 24% from '04

dean4ever

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday November 17, 2008 · 2:27 PM PST

2008/11/17 · 14:27

All of North Carolina's 100 countioes have completed their canvasses,
http://results.enr.clarityelections....
the total margin for Obama is now 14,179. Kay Hagan's margin over Liddy Dole was 360,000+. Official state certification will come in two weeks.

Here is how the provisional ballots broke, there were about 40,000 cast and 25,100 counted:

Canvassed results:
Obama/Biden (DEM) 50.87% 12,811
McCain/Palin (REP) 47.94% 12,075
Barr/Root (LIB) 0.79% 198
WRITE-IN 0.40% 102
TOTAL 25,186

Total votes cast: 4,354,052. Total turnout in 2004: 3,501,007 a 24% increase. Did any other state increase turnout this much?
http://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/...

Obama/Biden (DEM) 49.70% 2,142,569
McCain/Palin (REP) 49.38% 2,128,390
Barr/Root (LIB) 0.60% 25,722
WRITE-IN 0.32% 13,942
TOTAL 4,310,623

dean4ever

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Friday November 14, 2008 · 3:48 PM PST

2008/11/14 · 15:48

North Carolina canvassed election results in 90 of its 100 counties today, and Barack Obama gained a net 597 votes for a new margin of 14,289. The remaining 10 should report by Monday.

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/...

Obama picked up a net 114 votes from the 23,400 or so provisional ballots counted, and 483 from 14,500 votes from early voting and election day that were not reported previously. Election returns are at
http://results.enr.clarityelections....

The largest county not yet reporting its canvass is Durham, the most Democratic county in the state.

NC: 51.84% of Black voters voted early

dean4ever

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Tuesday November 04, 2008 · 4:35 AM PST

2008/11/04 · 04:35

North Carolina released its final stats on early voting at 6 am this morning, and 50.62% of all Black registered voters in the state cast their votes in person at early voting centers. Combined with mail-in absentee ballots, the total Black turnout before the election day polls even open is 51.84%.

North Carolina closed out its early voting period Saturday with a total 2,398,481 votes cast in person, up from 2004's 984,294. 44.91% of the registered Democrats have voted, compared with 33.49% of the Republicans, with a D to R margin of 614,842. The in-person early voting total is 67.5% of the 3,551,675 total votes cast in 2004. 442,129 unaffiliated voters and 1,644 Libertarians also voted.

The mail-in absentee total of 225,698 has an approximate 59,000 turnout edge for the GOP, dwarfed by the heavily Democratic in person early votes.

Blacks made up 31.48% of the Saturday final day total of 231,758 voters at 337 sites, up from the 25.20% who early voted Friday. Both numbers exceed the 21.6% of registered voters who are Black.

dean4ever

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday November 03, 2008 · 9:58 AM PST

2008/11/03 · 09:58

North Carolina registered 967,804 new voters in 2008. Of these, 91,736 registered at early voting centers and voted on the spot. These 91,736 voters were part of the astonishing 2,390,429 who voted onsite at early voting centers during a 17-day period that ended Saturday. Almost 4% of the early voters registered onsite. 95,903 voters reported address changes to another precinct at early voting sites, sparing them provisional ballots on election day.

North Carolina's total voter registration was 21.55% Black as of Saturday, of those who registered in 2008 31.48% are Black, and of those who registered during the early voting period 34.67% are Black.

Debunking the usual meme that people who signup in a registration drive won't bother to vote, 460,244 voters who registered since January 1, 2008 have already voted early or by mail, a 47.6% turnout, breaking down:

247,021 Democrats (54%)
97,203 Republicans (21%)
114,775 Unaffiliated (25%)

34% of all registered voters age 18-24 have already voted

dean4ever

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday November 02, 2008 · 4:18 AM PST

2008/11/02 · 04:18

UPDATE: 9 am Monday, November 3: some counties did NOT report their Saturday totals until this morning, and an additional 20,852 early voters have been added, for a final total of 2,390,429. I will update this diary this evening with the stats.

North Carolina closed out its early voting period Saturday with a total 2,369,577 votes cast in person, up from 2004's 984,294. Already, 49.7% of the State's Black registered voters have cast ballots just at the early vote sites. 44.34% of the registered Democrats have voted, compared with 33.18% of the Republicans, with a D to R margin of 604,846. The early voting total is 66.7% of the 3,551,675 total votes cast in 2004. 435,907 unaffiliated voters and 1,548 Libertarians also voted.

The mail-in absentee total of 203,629 has a 53,761 edge for the GOP, dwarfed by the heavily Democratic in person early votes.

Blacks made up 29.94% of the Saturday final day total of 202,854 voters at 337 sites, up from the 25.20% who early voted Friday. Both numbers exceed the 21.6% of registered voters who are Black.

dean4ever

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Saturday November 01, 2008 · 6:58 AM PDT

2008/11/01 · 06:58

A record 2,166,723 in person early votes have been cast in North Carolina, with early voting ending Saturday afternoon in North Carolina. A daily record 259,043 more votes were cast Friday at 364 locations. The final 2004 total was 984,294, this year's should exceed 2.3 million. Meanwhile, over 101,000 new voters have registered during early voting.

UPDATE 11:30 PM Final NC Early voting total 2,369,577 with 202,854 on Saturday.

Blacks made up 25.20% of the Friday total, up from the 24.14% who early voted Thursday. Both numbers exceed the 21.6% of registered voters who are Black. Already, 45.19% of Black registered voters in North Carolina have voted early, compared with 32.07% of Whites. 40.90% of registered Democrats have already voted, compared with 30.27% of registered Republicans.

45 counties (including all urban areas except Wilmington) close polls today at 5 pm, 50 counties close at 1 pm and the other five in between. Closing hours were extended from the originally scheduled 1 pm statewide due to heavy turnout. Those in line at closing time at the 337 locations can vote.

dean4ever

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Friday October 31, 2008 · 2:59 AM PDT

2008/10/31 · 02:59

The NC State Board of Elections has extended the Saturday 1 pm end of early voting by 4 hours in most counties due to North Carolina' record 1,907,680 in person early votes, as a daily record 210,925 more votes were cast Thursday at 364 locations. The final 2004 total was 984,294, this year's should exceed 2.2 million. Meanwhile, over 101,000 new voters have registered during early voting.

Blacks made up 24.14% of the Thursday total, down from the 24.24% who early voted Wednesday. Both numbers exceed the 21.4% of registered voters who are Black. Already, 40.76% of Black registered voters in North Carolina have voted early, compared with 28.22% of Whites. 36.63% of registered Democrats have already voted, compared with 26.17% of registered Republicans.

Newer
Older

RSS

NC vote-by-mail trends continue Dem after 2 weeks

NC vote by mail shows 20% swing to Dems after first week compared with 2010 totals

Dems start fast out of the box: NC mail-in voting starts

NC releases early vote sked: more weekends

the election starts Friday (for real)

NC margin for O 14,179, turnout up 24% from '04

NC canvasses 90 of 100 counties, O gains 590 votes

NC: 51.84% of Black voters voted early

NC 967,804 new voters this year, 91,736 during early vote

NC early vote final 2,390,429, half of Blacks already voted

NC in person early votes surge to 2,166,723, one day left

NC 1.9 million early votes; hours extended; 101,000 new voters