I know my audience here. Most states with disparate population centers like New York, Ohio, Indiana, etc. have vast exurban and rural areas that make districts naturally large and naturally Republican. When I sought to draw a map that could be seen as reasonably compact and had a decent amount of districts that are competitive. Being districts that were around 50% for both sides, since Dave's Redistricting Application only has 2008 Presidential results, I can say that I likely drew many districts that Obama won, but Rick Scott could have won or Marco Rubio.
For those aware the Florida Legislature have an application it developed. It is similar in nature to DRA but the scope of the map is limited in nature compare to Dave's, though it does have the ability to use Census Block and Voting Districts at the same time, as well as selecting a county whole. Once you finish a map or enough that you are satisfied you can submit it to the State Legislature's redistricting portal and they will show it off for the public to see on their blog.
I went to two redistricting hearings. One in Tampa the other in Wesley Chapel (a Tampa suburb); one thing that struck out to me majorly was the times they offered Tampa compared to Wesley Chapel. The Tampa meeting was at 4-8 in downtown Tampa; which as you know is a time when people are at work or if they wanted to go after work they would have had rush hour to deal with. Meanwhile the Wesley Chapel meeting went from 6-9 and had wonderful seating and audio, also does not hurt to be taking place in the incoming Speaker of the House Will Weatherford's district.
As for my addressing the legislators; when I first spoke I did not have any prepared remarks so I figured I would at the least ask for compactness and competition as the legislators there were mostly Republican and there is little more I could ask for. The second meeting in Tampa, I came prepared and had a page and a half of remarks only to be cut off after a minute claiming my time was up Senator Don Gaetz (also the incoming Senate President) who I could tell was not liking what I had to say; not wanting to appear belligerent I opted to wrap it up and trust that my written remarks will have a use with them.
For starters I will do the 27 district Congressional map I submitted.
As you can see the Panhandle/Northern Florida region has changed, however it will likely barely change those elected. In North Florida the counties are numerous but do not differ much in their politics (Aside from Gadsden and Leon) all of them easily gave their votes to the GOP.
The maps we presently have are in part tangled around the 3rd District of Corrine Brown's that snaked its way from Jacksonville down the St. John's River and into Black neighborhoods of Gainesville and Orlando. North Florida is a lost cause for Democrats; Democrats did win the Jacksonville Mayors race this year, but save for Jacksonville and Gainesville there is no oasis of solid Dem votes to make a satisfying district for Democrats. In making districts I sought to make at least two a Democrat could win. Jacksonville and Gainesville-Ocala districts make for these opportunities, on the local level there can be good candidates but these districts will be nail-biters.
This may appear overtly partisan on my behalf, but Jacksonville can elect Democrats as well as a Gainesville-Ocala district can be competitive in the right circumstances. The Obama-McCain percentages may be doctrine to most map drawers, but is not indicative of genuine local support for those running as Democrats.
From what I have heard, is that Corrine Brown's 3rd District is not VRA protected anymore; this coupled with the Fair Districting Amendment makes her district no longer possible or feasible.
District 1 (Blue): Pensacola-Destin; the incumbent is Jeff Miller his district is 32-67% McCain and not likely at all to ever go Democrat. Not much to report here.
District 2 (Green): Tallahasse-Panama City; the incumbent is Steve Southerland, the district is 47-52% McCain and seems within reach but this area is very polarized as the Democratic votes are mostly all in Gadsden and Leon counties and the other counties are very much Republican no matter how you dice it and they win the day. There are blue dogs here but due to the polarized environment these types may no longer have enough cross over appeal nowadays since those who may arise out of the Democratic primary will be left of center.
District 3 (Purple): Jacksonville-Duval County; incumbent Corrine Brown. This map takes in the more urban areas of Jacksonville. This district is an attempt to give Black voters as best of a chance to elect one of their own, but at 56-31% White-Black this may be the best it gets for Democrats in Jacksonville. This district is by the way; 53-47% Obama which makes it equal to Obama's performance nationwide. If one is to compare this with Mayor Alvin Brown's 2011 performance this district may have given him 55% or more in the run-off election. Corrine Brown is a very combative type and has alienated many whites due to her 20 years in congress in a very safe district etched out for her. If an African American is to be elected to this district they will resemble Alvin Brown and not Corrine Brown. This district would be similar to Ohio's 1st district where there district has an urban core but it has to share it with suburbs that make it swingish.
District 4 (Red): Lake City-Jacksonville Suburbs; incumbent Ander Crenshaw. I honestly do not know if he actually lives here he represents most of this district, but may be vulnerable to a primary from a Clay County politician. Either way this district at 30-69% McCain this will not elect a Democrat anytime soon.
District 5 (Yellow): Gainesville-Ocala; incumbent Cliff Stearns. Stearns is from Ocala and has represented most of this territory since 1989. However with the addition of Gainesville and the subtraction of The Villages area of southern Marion. This district gets very swingy at 48-51% McCain. The Democrats around here are either very liberal college kids from the University of Florida or Blue Dogs; while the Republicans are very much the southern type. Stearns is a backbencher, but there has been a great deal of retired state legislators in the area that may be angling for a job. I truly wanted to say this district would be a swing district based upon the strength of Gainesville but I think in election times the students will not mobilize in time and would not be able to dislodge Stearns.
District 6 (Teal): The Villages-Spring Hill; incumbent Richard Nugent. Nugent was elected in 2010 under an odd retirement by the former Ginny Brown-Waite. This district is in the I-4 Corridor exurbs--it is very grey and elderly. Citrus, Hernando, and Sumter are wholly in this district as it was before; this district adds The tri-county (Marion, Sumter, and Lake counties) community of The Villages. The Villages is a major planned retirement community and has a conservative bent, as Sarah Palin and Glenn Beck are quite popular here. This district stands at 43-57% McCain and would be only winnable with a Hochul-like campaign that mobilizes seniors against Social Security or Medicare/caid changes. I also wish to add that this area grew a great deal since 2000 in population.
District 7 (Silver): Sanford-Lake County; no incumbent. This district may seem like a gerrymander but in order to maintain two Orlando centric districts this is a must. The portions of Orange, Lake and Seminole are suburban and exurban in nature and have similar communities. At 46-53% McCain this district is similar to the 6th but a little more urban. This district is genuinely new since this is made up out of 5 old districts. This district is likely going to be called Republican packing, but frankly there is little to debate as the 9th is mostly urban and the 10th is intended to be a Hispanic influenced majority minority district.
District 8 (Slate Blue): Volusia County-St. Augustine; incumbent John Mica. Mica has represented most of Volusia in his time in Congress. Mica is one of three members of Congress from Winter Park (Mica, Daniel Webster and Sandy Adams) the tendril from Deland to Winter Park is no more. Mica is very powerful in this area and will likely win despite the fact that this district 50-49% Obama. This region is referred to as the First Coast, and save for some southern Volusia precincts it is very compact.
District 9 (Cyan): Orlando-Winter Park; no incumbent. This is another genuinely new district at 60-40% Obama it is surely going to elect a Democrat easily. This district like District 3 it is an attempt to pick up as many minority communities in the northern parts of Orange and southern Seminole and bringing the district to barely majority (50.5%) white, but 23% African American, 20% Hispanic, 4% Asian. This has most of the city of Orlando in it and despite not being large itself (238,000 population) it is not contained wholly since horizontal sprawl is the pattern of the area.
District 10 (Pink): South Orlando-Kissimmee; no incumbent. This like the other Orlando districts is genuinely new. This district is also 60-40% Obama but is majority minority where the demographics is 40-12-40 White-African American-Hispanic. This district is Walt Disney World as the area around it is entertainment minded with very much a tourism dependent economy. However in Osceola county there are large Citrus and Cattle farms that may be the oddballs in the district.
District 11 (SeaGreen): Melbourne-Vero Beach; incumbent Bill Posey. This district slims down and gets mostly coastal based. This district is 44-56% McCain where the population here is more established as compared to some of the newer 55+ communities we see in districts 6 and 7. The military retirees are prevalent as well as NASA. This district will stay Republican but as I have explained it is likely to stay this way based upon the natural geography of the area.
District 12 (Cornflower Blue): Lakeland-Winter Haven; incumbent Dennis Ross. This district still has presence in Polk and Hillsborough Counties but is more dominated by Polk. However the district does not change much in partisan composition at 44-56% as this district is agricultural based and despite Lakeland being swingy the rest of the area is quite conservative in nature. In the coming decade it is likely to become less white in the next decade because of growing Hispanic populations in Haines City and eastern Polk with farm workers.
District 13 (Dark Salmon): Tampa-Brandon; incumbent Kathy Castor. The district previously was majority-minority when it was last drawn however it was an aggressive gerrymander and despite perhaps the best intentions of the legislature in the 2002 maps. The DOJ has given clearance to the Fair District Amendments. At the Tampa redistricting hearings there was no defenders of the Tampa-St. Pete district. So expect this district to be very much on the chopping block as it should revert to the 1990's form where it sits centered in Hillsborough county. This district absorbs Brandon and becomes just plurality white at 49.5% VAP where Blacks and Hispanics comprising nearly 45% of the rest. Oh and by the way 61-39% Obama so do not expect to see Mark Sharpe or Shawn Harrison getting much traction in this strong Democratic district.
I will also like to add that with minority districts I am going by the Supreme Court case of Gingles v Thornberry. Where its majority opinion has it where the minority group in question must prove that:
1. It is sufficiently large and geographically compact to constitute a majority in a single-member district;
2. It is politically cohesive; and
3. In the absence of special circumstances, that bloc voting by the white majority usually defeats the minority’s preferred candidate.
And when it comes to retrogression;
If the districting scheme allowed any backsliding on minority electoral success, it would not be precleared.
District 14 (Olive): New Port Richey-Tarpon Springs; incumbent Gus Bilirakis. This district no longer goes to Plant City and is primarily a suburban district that is home to Republicans but more of the country club types. This district I admit is quite similar to the district we have in partisan identification where it is 51-48% McCain, it can elect a Democrat but similar to that of Alex Sink. This area is high growth and is susceptible to Republican ideals its communities are uniform in nature, we see a great deal of strip malls and suburban housing.
District 15 (Orange): St. Petersburg-Clearwater; incumbent C.W. Bill Young. This district I am most proud of, it is so simple in its construction, it is a peninsular district where it sits all within one county like it did last time around. Unfortunately for the GOP the aging Bill Young gets a 56-43% Obama district and in my opinion it may be too much for him to survive despite his moderate temperament.
District 16 (Chartreuse): Bradenton-Sarasota; incumbent Vern Buchanan. Goes more north and less compact than it previously was oddly enough. However it takes in the misfit of south Hillsborough and it can be argued that it makes a district that is competitive at 51-49% McCain. This area is swingy but it takes a strong Democrat to win here, as the bench here is quite small. I-75 is the defining feature of the district as it acts as the spine of the district and the neighboring 17th takes in the rural parts of Sarasota and Manatee Counties.
District 17 (Dark Slate Blue): Sebring-Lehigh Acres; no incumbent. Ok this district had to be made, it is not compact but it takes in as many counties as any other outside north Florida. This district takes in suburban-rural areas in the Okeechobee basin. This district is all farming and rural. I can not predict where the congressman will come from but I will bet it will be someone with a thick twang, a cowboy hat and a plum seat on the agriculture committee.
District 18 (Yellow): Cape Coral-Fort Myers; incumbent Connie Mack. If I were trying for county unity, I would have made Lee County in a district on its own as it is quite close to a congressional district size. This district has many retirees and at 54-46% McCain its pretty much safe Republican. Not much to say here but this district shifted northern adding North Port and shedding areas close to Naples.
District 19 (Yellow Green): Fort-Pierce-Port St. Lucie; incumbent Tom Rooney. Tom Rooney would be better off running in the vacant 17th because this district is 55-44% Obama. I definitely am not too proud of this district since West Palm Beach is cut off from its suburbs mostly. This is to ensure that Martin and St. Lucie counties are given a coastal district that will elect someone from the coast.
District 20 (Pink): Boca Raton-Coral Springs; incumbent Ted Deutch. I wish there was demographic data available pertaining to religion (just for curiosity of course), I am quite sure there are many Jews in this district. The district takes a hit in partisan terms for Democrats as it is now 62-39% it is still quite safe for Democrats.
District 21 (Maroon): Lake Worth-Delray Beach; no incumbent. This compact district had to happen, there is no way there will be districts similar to what we had in SE Florida. This district like the 20th likely has a lot of Jews and similarly leans the same politically at 63-36% Obama. This district is open and former State Senator Dave Aronberg is in Greenacres...just a suggestion.
District 22 (Sienna); Pembroke Pines-Doral: no incumbent. This district too is more of a left overs district where in order to make the African American district 24 largely African American. This district can be argued to be a Southern Broward district. The areas it takes in from Miami-Dade county are mostly suburban in nature and since I have a Miami and a Hialeah district, I will just argue that suburbs need districts too especially when they can make one with their populations. This district will upset the incumbents as Alcee Hastings district was not even considered to be recreated and Miami Republicans gets even more pissed at Fair Districts as it is 57-42% Obama. The voting age population is 27-10-58% White-African America-Hispanic
District 23 (Cyan): Fort Lauderdale-Weston; incumbents Debbie Wasserman Schultz/Allen West. Ok this district is amazing as it covers a good portion of Broward and does not leave the county giving Florida not just one but 4 districts entirely within a county. This being 70-29% Obama we will see Debbie Wasserman Schultz getting a safe district and a new constituent named Allen West. This district is not majority white and breaks down at 47-27-20% White-African American-Hispanic. I think this area is liberal enough to elect a African American or Hispanic once Debbie Wasserman Schultz leaves this seat.
District 24 (Purple): North Miami-Miramar; incumbents Alcee Hastings/Frederica Wilson. I wish there was a clean way to draw a second majority black seat in Florida and have it be compact. However even trying to draw Kendrick Meek's old seat it is just 49.7% African American. This district is the most Democratic in the state at 85-14% Obama. Even if this district was 40% African American I'm sure there would be an African American in this seat. Additionally if say the threshold for African American percentage was lower (around 40%) I may be able to draw two 40% African American seats in this area but the shapes would turn the other seats on their heads.
District 25 (Pink): Hialeah-West Miami; incumbent Mario Diaz Balart. One of the most compact urban Republican districts in the United States at 60-39% McCain it also is 89% Hispanic where the anti-communist Cuban population puts this district in the bin for Cuban Republicans for quite a lot of time.
District 26 (Grey): Miami-Miami Beach; incumbent Illena Ros Lethenen. However she is Cuban and is right of center. However as she is barely moderate, she will have to put it to use as this district is now 55-44% Obama and takes in all of Miami and the causeways. This district is now 63% Hispanic and if I knew Miami better I would guess there are lesser Cubans than the 25th district.
District 27 (Sea Green): Naples-Homestead; incumbent David Rivera. David Rivera is trying to weather his scandals. However this new district attempts to remove the Miami influence and take in the areas south and the Florida Keys. This is actually a White majority district actually and will elect Republicans at 55-44% McCain, sorry Collier county had to go somewhere. If I had to redo this map I would probably make it similar to the way this district is presently drawn where it has a chance to elect a Hispanic.
As for the partisan breakdown if you are trying to keep track. Lets just say that this proposal was sent to the Republican led Florida Legislature. This map was my attempt at going center-right on the drawing. I did my best to make competitive districts but also to preserve existing districts that were not too badly drawn to begin with. The map below is how the state would look on election night. Where all 27 districts are up for grabs and where a red district is Republican, blue is Democrat, and yellow is a swing district.
This breaks down about 14 Republican districts, 9 Democratic districts and about 4 or 4 swing districts depending on how you look at them. The swing districts I have in mind are 3, 8, 16, and 26. Where 3 is a genuine new district inside a city that votes Republican. 8 and 16 is new in appearance and has an intrenched incumbent and new populations. 26 has an intrenched incumbent in a town known for its Republican friendliness. Swing districts on the radar would be 5 and 14, where 5 would be competitive in an open seat election it also could be competitive if Gainesville voted as a block. 14 is suburban in nature and it may appear hard but once the Democratic bench is grown it could down the road elect a Democrat as it is not a district that McCain raked up large margins in.
