I've been obsessively reading articles for weeks on this topic and I just don't know what to think. I 100% believe mankind contributes to global warming. I despise the deniers for being crass knee-jerk political hacks trying to defend their traditional corporate allies, the petrochemical industry.
I just want to know if this solar maximum stuff could really eclipse the effects of global warming and perhaps become as much a threat as global warming and induce another "Dalton Minimum" or worse anther "Maunder Minimum" or Little Ice Age, graph of that in worldcrops.com link below.
If anyone decides to jump in and I'm just wrong here, I ask for basic respect if you're going to shoot this down. I apologize in advance if I am just naive. I am not a scientist by any means.
According to Dr Frank Hill, associate director of the US National Solar Observatory’s (NSO) Solar Synoptic Network, evidence from three sources suggest that the sun may be headed for a lengthy period of slowing activity. Hill observes, “If we are right, this could be the last solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades. That would affect everything from space exploration to Earth’s climate.” And the implication of this for agricommodities – if past precedent is anything to go by – is worrying.
My bold. That past precedent being the Maunder or Dalton Minimum when things got very cold. Keep in mind that we're also past due for another regular Ice Age... IIRC history shows 100,000 year ice ages for every 10,000 year warm age.
In June at the annual meeting of the Solar Physics Division of the American Astronomical Society (AAS), it was announced that studies suggest that the next solar sunspot cycle, due to begin in 2019, “will be greatly reduced or may not happen at all.” Climate change sceptics leapt upon this bombshell as evidence that rather than worrying about the earth getting hotter, we should be more concerned about it getting colder. It’s an uncomfortable truth that, as far as vegetation is concerned, a slightly warmer climate is generally to be welcomed; but a cooler planet would spell extremely difficult times for both farmers and food consumers.
Now here's the item I have latched on in my head: no solar jet stream indicator
What’s interesting is that Cycle 24, which started in January 2008, is already the least active since Cycle 6, which ended in 1823. Cycle 25 is due to start in 2019, but Hill’s findings suggest that no new cycle is on the horizon – there ought to have been evidence of a change in the jet stream as far back as 2008, but as yet this has not happened. The longer we go on without signs emerging of a change in the jet stream, the more ‘confirmable’ will be the probability of either a very diminished, or indeed absent, Cycle 25.
This article also talks about the jet stream:
The streamers normally become busy around the sun's poles a few years before peak solar storm activity.
That 'rush to the poles' would have happened by now, but it hasn't and there's no sign of it yet. That also means the cycle after that is uncertain, he said.
Matt Penn of the National Solar Observatory, another study co-author, said sunspot magnetic fields have been steadily decreasing in strength since 1998.
If they continue on the current pace, their magnetic fields will be too weak to become spots as of 2022 or so, he said.
Jet streams on the sun's surface and below are also early indicators of solar storm activity, and they have not formed yet for the 2020 cycle. That indicates that there will be little or delayed activity in that cycle, said Hill, who tracks jet streams.
That bolded part is what I haven't been able to find more updated information about. Does anyone know more information on that?
Even though the Sun has been active recently as it heads towards solar maximum in 2013, there are three lines of evidence pointing to a solar cycle that may be going on hiatus. They are: a missing jet stream, slower activity near the poles of the sun and a weakening magnetic field, meaning fading sunspots. Hill, along with Dr. Richard Altrock from the Air Force Research Laboratory and Dr. Matt Penn from the National Solar Observatory independently studied the different aspects of the solar interior, the visible surface, and the corona and all concur that cycle 25, will be greatly reduced or may not happen at all.
Ok so that hasn't happened in modern history right?
Since the Maunder Minimum right?
I just don't understand how this topic doesn't weigh heavily on any discussion of climate change at this point.
That said, this other article below about the Maunder Minimum from universetoday.com corroborates what I've read elsewhere: climatologists are extremely hesitant to include solar activity in their predictions on climate change. But most also hedge on that topic from my reading and say that the Maunder Minimum and other periods of low sun spot activity present very compelling evidence that it SHOULD be considered.
The effects of solar activity, much less the extent of it, to climate change is not well established. However, there are those who suggest we should look at other causes of climate change other than greenhouse gases, and solar activity is one of the alternative candidates
I found a disturbing diary on possible geomagnetic storm predictions from our current Cycle 24 by Hounddog but I didn't see any other diaries on this topic of Cycle 25 and possible global cooling. Repubs are latching on to this so I wanted to get some perspective from fellow progressives that are smarter than me.
Our current Cycle 24 is still described as the weakest solar maximum in decades, which looks to support the evidence that Cycle 25 might be a bust. Could this neutralize global warming?