Which Republican won't be able to win swing states?

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Monday January 04, 2016 · 10:59 AM PST

2016/01/04 · 10:59

If 270,000 people in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado had switched their votes from Obama to Romney, Mitt Romney would have been elected POTUS in 2012. He obviously didn’t, and other than North Carolina, he didn’t snag any swing state whose margin was less than 6%. Will the Democratic nominee in 2016 will outperform Barack Obama’s 2012 reelection numbers. It’s certainly up in the air.

Also up in the air? The Republican nominee. However, I’m fairly confident in saying that the GOP nominee will be one of the following five people, in order of their polling: Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Bush, or Christie.

So here’s your question: Considering the attached swing state picture, who is most likely to outperform Mitt Romney in the 8 swing states of North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Iowa? Also, which Republican is most likely to fall short of Romney’s 2012 showing?

In essence, America’s next president will win a majority of these 8 states. Since Daily Kos is a progressive website, let’s go with a more negative Republican question: What Republican is LEAST LIKELY to win these swing states? In short, which Republican candidate do you feel will perform WORSE than Mitt Romney?

Let’s go with two candidates, though. Which pair of GOP candidates do Hillary/Bernie have no reason to worry about come general election time in November, because if they are the nominee, they have no chance of winning?

Poll

118 votes Show Results

Which two candidates have NO CHANCE of defeating the Democrat come November?

118 votes Vote Now!

Which two candidates have NO CHANCE of defeating the Democrat come November?

Trump and Cruz have ZERO chance of becoming President

64 votes

Trump and Rubio have ZERO chance of becoming President

5 votes

Trump and Bush have ZERO chance of becoming President

7 votes

Trump and Christie have ZERO chance of becoming President

4 votes

Cruz and Rubio have ZERO chance of becoming President

4 votes

Cruz and Bush have ZERO chance of becoming President

4 votes

Cruz and Christie have ZERO chance of becoming President

3 votes

Rubio and Bush have ZERO chance of becoming President

4 votes

Rubio and Christie have ZERO chance of becoming President

1 vote

Bush and Christie have ZERO chance of becoming President

22 votes

2010 Senate Race - Which seats will switch parties?

gph11

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Thursday June 03, 2010 · 9:41 AM PDT

2010/06/03 · 09:41

On the left side of Nate Silver’s 538 website, you can see a breakdown of the Senate outlook for 2010. Nate has assigned a percentage to each race, based on the percent that the seat might switch parties. He hasn’t updated his Senate rankings in 6 weeks, so I shall share my predictions for the US Senate presently. One major difference though: Nate uses loads of statistics, but while I am using some recent polls, news, and information, this is mostly a subjective and "gut" analysis, which any mathematician will tell you is no analysis at all. So it should be fun..

Again, I’m using the percent chance that the opposing party will take over this particular Senate seat, starting with North Dakota.

Poll

140 votes Show Results

In Jan. 2011, what will be the Senate breakdown?

140 votes Vote Now!

In Jan. 2011, what will be the Senate breakdown?

62-38 - D

9 votes

61-39 - D

5 votes

60-40 - D

5 votes

59-41 - D

2 votes

58-42 - D

7 votes

57-43 - D

22 votes

56-44 - D

25 votes

55-45 - D

16 votes

54-46 - D

17 votes

53-47 - D

9 votes

52-48 - D

7 votes

51-49 - D

5 votes

50-50 - Tiebreaker goes to Biden

1 vote

51-49 - R

10 votes

Effigies in the 2000s and a Voice of Reason

gph11

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Friday August 07, 2009 · 7:18 AM PDT

2009/08/07 · 07:18

Things have gotten a little out of hand in the discourse of American society.

I am simply trying to comprehend where we have gone as a nation. The 2000s have seen a failure of civil discourse and the town hall meetings that we've seen as of late have highlighted this. As I recall, the 1990s did not seem to host as many effigies as the 2000s. Perhaps my memory does not serve me well, but I don’t recall effigies of Ross Perot, Bill Clinton, Bob Dole, Al Gore, or Jack Kemp. It seems as though we were above that.

gph11

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Thursday January 08, 2009 · 1:54 PM PST

2009/01/08 · 13:54

So, we’ve been wondering for the past few weeks who Blair House guests would be.

As it turns out, it’s the former Prime Minister of Australia

Blair House Guest revealed

gph11

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Thursday October 30, 2008 · 7:44 AM PDT

2008/10/30 · 07:44

In 1996, Bill Clinton earned 379 EVs. If it’s our goal to beat that total this year, so we can earn some serious political capital and a huge mandate as kos said in Newsweek, then we gotta win West Virginia, North Dakota, Montana, South Dakota, and Indiana. If we do that, then we will have 389 Electoral votes, 10 more than Bill. Nice.

Poll

72 votes Show Results

What kind of night will it be?

72 votes Vote Now!

What kind of night will it be?

Utter Obama landslide

11 votes

Big Obama Night

35 votes

Solid Obama Night

18 votes

Solid McCain Night

4 votes

Big McCain night

0 votes

Utter McCain landslide

4 votes

Palin & Experience: Let's be careful here.

gph11

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Friday August 29, 2008 · 4:13 PM PDT

2008/08/29 · 16:13

REAL careful.

Yes, we can joke about Palin's inexperience, etc. But let's have a look at history, before we freakin' underestimate what's going on here. Never underestimate a politician.

Let's go back in time, looking at the Presidential and VP noms all the way back to 1976, and their varying amounts of experience.

gph11

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Saturday July 05, 2008 · 9:43 AM PDT

2008/07/05 · 09:43

As I mentioned in Part 1, when you’re a teacher, your planning periods are really defined by who has a planning period with you. Sitting in the teacher’s work room, your conversations can range from cooking to sports, and depending on the person, even hot topics like religion and politics...sometimes both together.

So it should be no surprise that my conservative teacher friend and I have had many conversations about many different things. However, we’re both pretty interested in politics...as such, the topic comes up more than a few times. This time, though, the topic revolved around the students at our high school, and high school students around the nation. Today’s topic was the abstinence movement.

gph11

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Saturday June 21, 2008 · 8:30 AM PDT

2008/06/21 · 08:30

When you’re an educator, conversations with other members of the staff depend on who happens to have a planning period with you in any given semester. This past year, I shared a planned period with a conservative, who loves to talk about politics. The conservative knows that I enjoy a quality discussion over politics, and we’re both pretty civil, so conversations were bound to happen. For the most part, we differ on most things.

gph11

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday December 31, 2007 · 8:12 AM PST

2007/12/31 · 08:12

Clearly, a lot of people are pissed off at Iowa and New Hampshire for many reasons.

They aren't as diverse

Des Moines is the largest city in either of these states, with a metro population of 532,000...92nd largest in the US

Most Americans do NOT live in rural areas

Poll

46 votes Show Results

What state should be first?

46 votes Vote Now!

What state should be first?

Missouri

0 votes

Wisconsin

1 vote

Minnesota

1 vote

Colorado

3 votes

Kentucky

0 votes

South Carolina

0 votes

Maine

0 votes

West Virginia

0 votes

Nevada

0 votes

Oregon

2 votes

Vermont

1 vote

Tennesee

1 vote

Keep Iowa and New Hampshire first!

9 votes

Multiple states should go first on the same day

22 votes

A state that is not on this list

6 votes

Defeat for Netroots?

gph11

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday November 04, 2007 · 10:50 AM PST

2007/11/04 · 10:50

The 2008 Primaries are fast approaching. The Iowa caucuses are two months from yesterday. And with sixty days left, it is time for some honesty here on Daily Kos.

I’ve been a long time reader on this site, and I've commented a few times, but as this year as progressed, I see one simple truth that has emerged: Hilary Clinton is the establishment candidate in the Democratic field.

Let’s be completely and utterly honest here. Hilary Clinton is not the top choice for us folks here at Daily Kos. In fact, she is not even close to being the top candidate.

RSS

Which Republican won't be able to win swing states?

2010 Senate Race - Which seats will switch parties?

Effigies in the 2000s and a Voice of Reason

Blair House Guest Thoughts

I'm feeling pretty good (Electorally)

Palin & Experience: Let's be careful here.

Conversations with a Conservative (Part 2)

Conversations with a Conservative: Gay marriage

Fine...What state should be first then?

Defeat for Netroots?