Note: This is an update to a thread that I wrote in February, where I address the 2008 Presidential Election.
As we are now headed into a presidential season I thought that I would analyze the Keys to the Presidency. This formula, designed by AU Professor Allan Lichtman (full disclosure: he ran for US Senate as a Democrat in 2006 in the MD primary, but lost. However, this book was written well before he ran for office), predicts who wins and loses elections. The theory behind the keys is that Lichtman believes that campaigns don't matter.
There are thirteen keys. For an incumbent president to win he must not lose more than five keys. For the challenging party to win its candidate must have more than six. Beneath the fold I will address each key.
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