This past Friday, I attended the memorial of my neighbor Bob. I’ve known him the entire 27 years we’ve lived here. I visited and talked with him regularly as I started bringing him leftovers after his wife, Ginny, passed in 2020. He turned 91 in December (we share our birthday), and he was fit, as he regularly went to the YMCA, walked his dog, and went on trips with members of the church family who adopted him.
Four weeks ago, his family found him with a fever and took him to the hospital, where he was diagnosed with the flu. While there, he got COVID, and they brought him back home at his request. He passed three weeks after the fever onset. It happened so quickly I only got to visit and talk with him once before he was gone.
So, with that experience in mind, I want to ask some questions about the implications that, God forbid, a similar event happens to Joe Biden or even Trump. I’m sorry if this sounds morbid, but in today’s toxic environment, where one party appears to be headed down the path of turning our nation into an autocracy, we must explore and plan how to deal with any realistic eventuality.
The media considers a Biden-Trump run the most likely race in 2024. However, we should look at other possibilities to see where we stand in the 2024 election with different candidates.
I believe a Biden-Trump matchup would be a win in the D column and likely win both congressional chambers. Trump, together with the GOP House nuttery is that toxic. But, beyond a health event, there are at least three ways Trump will not be the candidate, and I would like to explore some potential matchups if that were the case.
So how could Trump be rejected for candidacy? The recent 14th Amendment discussion and legal filings stand a good chance of succeeding, but only if the Supreme Court decides to disqualify Trump. On its face, the 14th Amendment has strong insurrection disqualification clause wording, and the case put forward by the January 6th Congressional Committee that Trump engaged in and supported an insurrection is strong. This legal avenue has started, and it will end up at SCOTUS.
As soon as the first case makes it to the Supreme Court docket, we, as a nation, should insist that the three justices appointed by Trump - Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barrett, recuse from this decision. This recusal requirement must be presented as a media blitz in every market. We should start fundraising as soon as possible to target markets that impact the justices.
If the three Trump appointees recuse, the decision on the legality of the 14th Amendment disqualifying Trump on the ballot would be decided by Chief Justice Roberts and the remaining five justices, Alito, Thomas, Kagan, Sotomayor, and Jackson. Justice Jackson may also be asked to recuse since Biden appointed her, but I don’t know if she should recuse because the issue isn’t about the race; it’s about ballot qualification.
If it came down to these six, or five, if Jackson recuses, Roberts would be the decider as I suspect Alito and Thomas would likely take Trump’s side. I would hope Roberts would want to seal the court’s image as being on the side of Democracy and Justice and decide to bar Trump from the ballot. IANAL, so don’t know the legal implications of a 3-3 SCOTUS tie.
The second potential reason Trump wouldn’t be on the ballot is if he removed himself as part of a plea bargain. Remember, Trump is the king of bankruptcy, and if he finally gets the message that he’s in deep legal trouble, his legal team may coach him into a plea deal. He might, for example, plea for house arrest on one obstruction charge and agree to never run for election. I don’t know if Trump is emotionally intelligent and mature enough to take a plea deal.
The third and least likely way Trump won’t be on the ballot is if he flat-out loses in the GOP Primary. The problem is that none of the candidates running against him appears to be coalescing the never-trumper votes. If they quickly agree on one person to run and the others drop out, they might stand a chance, but slim at best.
If Trump were not on the ballot, the one GOP candidate I would worry about from the GOP candidate crowd would be Nikki Haley. To put her in a debate against Biden would present a sharp contrast in vitality on TV. In addition, this nation thirsts for a female president, which could be challenging to overcome with right-leaning independents.
Returning to the beginning of this story, we should explore the case that Biden may not be the candidate, whether through a health event or self-withdrawal. Then there would likely be Harris v. Trump or Harris v. Someone Else. Harris would wipe the floor with Toxic Trump or DeSantis. Harris v. Haley would be a tight race, and we would need to lean in on women’s health as a proper issue to win the independents. Frankly, if Trump were removed from the ballot, I would hope Biden withdraws to give the nation a woman candidate for president.
The constant focus on a Biden vs. Trump race without planning for other possibilities could put us at a disadvantage for the 2024 election. We must game out other scenarios, especially given Trump’s legal woes and their ages.
