Blatant Racism Now OK on X/Twitter

maroge04

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Wednesday September 27, 2023 · 6:33 AM PDT

2023/09/27 · 06:33

Several days ago, I ran into the following tweet:

Ian Connolly

@ICouser85734

Sep 16

@Cardboard0G @Tomhennessey69 I don’t care how long it has been. Blacks need to be somehow removed from the United States.We will never have a safe country until they are out...

I reported it and got the following response from X/Twitter Tuesday:

Hello,

After reviewing the available information, we want to let you know ICouser85734 hasn’t broken our safety policies. We know this isn’t the answer you’re looking for. If this account breaks our policies in the future, we’ll notify you.

This reveals everything you need to know about Elon Musk and the company he is running. Ethnic cleansing is now a respectable opinion.

Why I think Ohio Issue 1 may fail

maroge04

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Monday September 25, 2023 · 5:31 AM PDT

2023/09/25 · 05:31

I apologize for the brevity of this diary but I think this needs to be said.

I do not think we should get our hopes up about Ohio Issue 1, which guaranteesthe right to reproductive freedom for all Ohioans. We were all understandably elated when the previous Ohio issue 1 failed, and of course, we were happy when other anti-abortion amendments failed in other states the past year.

Why do I think the Ohio case is different? I believe that people resist changing the Constitution of their respective states. And that's what this is all about. That's why I think anti-abortion amendments failed in other states. People resist change, especially permanent change.

Of course, the other side lying about gender reassignment surgery for children is also a factor. This will be on people's minds.

Finally, and this is admittedly anecdotal, but I have not seen any "Vote Yes" signs yet here on the West side of Cincinnati. I've already seen four No signs.

I hope I'm wrong.

Biden's classified document Special Counsel

maroge04

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday September 18, 2023 · 11:42 AM PDT

2023/09/18 · 11:42

I was reading on Twitter that some people are concerned that the SC in this case has not already wrapped up his investigation, as the Pence case has already closed. Any thoughts on this?

Note, they are NOT concerned because they think Biden is guilty of anything, but because the SC is a TRUMP appointee and may be slow walking this investigation — or worse. Something to think about.

Frankly, I don’t trust anyone appointed by the TFG. That even includes the Secret Service.

Why are so many assuming Biden will easily beat Trump?

maroge04

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Friday September 01, 2023 · 8:26 AM PDT

2023/09/01 · 08:26

Some are even predicting a 1964-style blowout. Frankly, I don’t see it.

The biggest problem is the economy. Jobs are still being created, but slowing down. Many economists are still predicting a recession next year. That’s the worst possible timing for Biden of course.

And if there is no recession, we are likely to see rising gas prices. Oil is now at $85.00 a barrel and climbing. That means gas prices are soon to follow. And they are already elevated, particularly for this time of year. Average gas prices of over $4.00 a gallon could be fatal to Biden.

Look at the polls: Biden is a tiny 0.8% ahead of Trump on RCP as I speak. The most recent individual poll from YouGov has Trump 2 points ahead of him.

Trump overperformed his polling in 2020 by several points. Can we assume that won’t happen next year?

As for Trump’s trials, I have a gut feeling he will be successful in delay, delay, and delay. There could be a possibility that they don’t even happen at all next year.

I’m also hearing more online chatter about emerging Biden “scandals”. Sure, it’s probably BS, but even if there’s a whiff of scandal, the GOP will be able to keep these fake scandals alive.

My predictions regarding GOP performance last year were wrong. There was no red wave. I hope I’m wrong this time too.

Don't be complacent with the Issue One result in Ohio yesterday

maroge04

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Wednesday August 09, 2023 · 6:40 AM PDT

2023/08/09 · 06:40

Please don’t assume that our victory means the pro-choice abortion amendment will pass in November.

I can personally attest that there was some confusion about this amendment. I work with a woman, an African-American who is very religious and socially conservative (though I think she still largely votes for Democratic candidates). She voted “No” yesterday, but she is completely against abortion, saying it is never acceptable.

I spoke with her and she seemed EXTEMELY confused when I told her the “No” vote was actually the pro-choice position. I then ended the conversation because I didn’t want to get into an argument about abortion.

I don’t think she even understood what Issue 1 was all about. When the abortion amendment is actually on the ballot in November, I seriously doubt she would vote yes on that.

Don’t be complacent. The vote will be far closer in November.

What's the deal with RFK Jr.?

maroge04

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Tuesday May 09, 2023 · 10:06 AM PDT

2023/05/09 · 10:06

Looking at his Twitter feed is quite an experience. I see mostly attacks on vaccines and the medical/ pharmaceutical establishment (he even promotes HCQ), and some isolationist foreign policy.

There is little if anything here to appeal to a Democratic primary electorate. His friendly commenters are mostly right-wing. I wouldn’t be surprised if he soon starts making vaguely anti-abortion statements, but that’s just speculation.

What on earth does he think he’s doing?

Please don't assume Trump cannot win again

maroge04

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Monday May 08, 2023 · 9:53 AM PDT

2023/05/08 · 09:53

Watching breathless news stories about the surge in border crossings currently, I am reminded that Presidents who appear impotent to control events usually lose election.

This will be a huge issue for Biden and I hope he is ready for it. Although the administration has sent troops, I wonder if it is enough.

The debt ceiling conundrum is also a big problem. We know for sure that a recession will surely lead to the defeat of a sitting president. Look at history.

And of course, we still have the issues of crime and inflation.

Biden will likely need to go it alone on the debt ceiling by invoking the 14th amendment. But recent comments by Janet Yellen seem to indicate the administration is not ready for that option.

I think they will need to be. 43 GOP Senators have stated they will never vote for a clean debt ceiling hike.

I think Democrats have been falsely confident because of their better-than-average performance in the mid-terms last fall. We should not be complacent. Democrats didn’t do terribly in 1978 either, and look what happened two years later.

Make not mistake: Trump can win. He’s already dispatched of DeSantis, and DeSantis hasn’t even announced a run yet. Trump seems to be assembling a more competent team than he had in 2016 or 2020. The media is playing along — see CNN.

I was wrong. And I couldn't be happier about it.

maroge04

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Wednesday November 09, 2022 · 7:51 AM PST

2022/11/09 · 07:51

Mea culpa: I wrote a diary about a week or so ago predicting that Democrats would suffer huge losses in this election. That didn’t happen. I was wrong — very wrong.

Although the GOP may still eke out a narrow victory in either chamber, yesterday went incredibly well for the Democrats, considering this was a mid-term, they are the party that controls the White House, inflation, etc. It seems to have been the best mid-term performance since 2002, when the GOP gained seats unexpectedly (likely due to 9-11).

And there is still a chance we may NOT lose control of either chamber.

So I screwed up, badly. And I couldn’t be happier.

My Election Prediction: We're in trouble

maroge04

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Thursday November 03, 2022 · 11:52 AM PDT

2022/11/03 · 11:52

My prediction is based purely on the polls and data I have seen, and I think it’s fair to see we are in trouble.

My prediction is we lose 3-4 Senate seats, with 5 or 6 within the realm of possibility. As for the House, I think we’re looking at a loss of 35-40 seats.

Recent poll movement against Hassan and Warnock have confirmed this. I think both will lose, as will Cortez-Masto. As for the latter, please read Ralston’s latest blog entry about the early vote in Nevada. It’s sobering. And scary.

thenevadaindependent.com/...

Kelly’s not safe either, although he is slightly better positioned that those two.

I would not even be particularly shocked if a senator who now looks relatively safe, such as Murray or Bennett may end up losing as well. Especially Murray. A few polls have shown the race close there.

As for pick-up opportunities that we were hoping for earlier in the year, only Fetterman has a chance at this point, and it’s not looking good for him either. Perhaps Shapiro can carry him to victory, but I doubt it. Ryan, Demings, Beasley, and Barnes are consistently behind in nearly every recent reputable poll I’ve seen.

God help this country when MAGA Fascists take over. This will not be like past losses. These people are seriously crazy.

I hope and pray I am wrong.

Polled by Rasmussen Tonight

maroge04

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Thursday October 20, 2022 · 3:59 PM PDT

2022/10/20 · 15:59

I got two public opinion polls this evening. One from a company I did not recognize which asked me who I was voting for in the Ohio senate race and a few other political questions, and then Rasmussen.

The Rasmussen poll was pretty interesting. In addition to questions about politics and the economy, they bizarrely asked me if I've ever watched the new Lord of the Rings TV series and what I thought about it, and how much I agreed with the statement that the FBI is abusing its power.

Just thought I'd tell you guys about it. I guess my data should be in Rasmussen's poll tomorrow, where they announce their latest generic ballot numbers. I don't expect it to be good, unfortunately.

Generic Ballot Polls No Longer Looking So Good

maroge04

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday October 17, 2022 · 11:20 AM PDT

2022/10/17 · 11:20

I’m seeing more polls now that are giving the GOP leads in the generic ballot — NY Times/Siena, Harvard/ Harris, and CBS. And of course Rasmussen, which jumped to +7 R in the past week.

Some of this is the fact that polls are moving to Likely Voters screens, which gives Republicans the edge. I note that the recent Fox poll that is D+3 is Registered Voters only.

This is cold comfort though, because it indicates the GOP has the enthusiasm on their side. It seems like the abortion issue is fading and is being replaced with issues more favorable to Republicans.

Which Senate Races Worry You The Most?

maroge04

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Tuesday August 30, 2022 · 10:34 AM PDT

2022/08/30 · 10:34

Polling is close is many races. Of the seats we currently hold, I’m concerned about Georgia the most I think, followed by Nevada.

A new Emerson poll released today has Walker ahead by 2 points. Right-Wingers on Twitter are saying Warnock is in deep trouble. I’m not sure if that’s true, but I am concerned. Walker is such a complete moron he should not even be in this.

Emerson is rated highly, but I do detect a GOP lean in their polling this year.

Anyone else worried about the prospect of Sen. Herschel Walker?

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