In the run-up to the 2006 elections there was great fear among Democrats, and hope among Republicans, that gerrymandering would effectively maintain GOP dominance despite the will of the voters. The fear was that, just as Gore won the popular vote but lost in the electoral college, the Democrats might in fact win the "generic congressional ballot" but still fail to take the House. Even after the election, there was much discussion of how changing a few thousand votes hear and there might have (as Karl Rove said) kept the Republicans in power or (as has been noted here) given the Democrats a huge majority. And so I decided to look at what effect the drawing of congressional boundaries has on the representation in congress. In particular I was concerned with the questions: which states are the most gerrymandered to help one party? and How well does the composition of the next congress represent the actual proportion of votes won by the parties? My results show that (for our next congress) the votes are represented remarkably well.
Read More