Netroots Nation 2009: Who do you want at a 'Horserace' Panel?

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Friday March 06, 2009 · 9:40 AM PST

2009/03/06 · 09:40

For the House, Senate, Governor's and State Leg junkies out there, I'm trying to put together a panel to do both a look back at regional, demographic, and public opinion trends in the 2008 election, as well as a look forward to the 2010 midterms. Current ideas for speakers include Arjun (Brownsox), someone from Swing State Project, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight, perhaps a pollster.com blogger, and Chris Bowers. Any other ideas?

Is there anyone you want to see in particular? Let me know in the comments!

The Electoral Math of Social Security, or, Karl Rove's fuzzy math, part #870

niq77174

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Sunday April 17, 2005 · 9:31 PM PDT

2005/04/17 · 21:31

There's no secret weapon, but below the fold I have
some early suggested target demographics for the 2006 midterms based on opposition to Bush's Social Security plan. Read More

Everyone else has one! My prediction ...

niq77174

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Tuesday November 02, 2004 · 7:55 AM PST

2004/11/02 · 07:55

I know, I know ... everyone on the planet has a prediction. But I figured I'd join in the fun. After all, America seems to have a surplus of professional predictors, so I figured I should add to the surplus now, and thus hasten the collapse of the entire industry.

Plus, there's a poll on what happens next.

Update: Fixed the number of Senators. Someone has suggested going after Mitt Romney or his successor, which would also be a good idea. Bill Owens' successor is also another good target. Read More

Yet more Democracy Corps graphs;

niq77174

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Tuesday October 26, 2004 · 5:50 PM PDT

2004/10/26 · 17:50

I've been trying to figure out how this election is close, despite the fact that new voters appear to be overwhelmingly for Kerry, plus independents have shown up as being for Kerry.

The latest Democracy Corps graphs shed some light on the subject. Hit the link for a bit of commentary. Read More

Democracy Corps mania, 1 debate to go

niq77174

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Tuesday October 12, 2004 · 6:50 PM PDT

2004/10/12 · 18:50

Democracy Corps has released slides summarizing the state of the race after the second debate. I did a much longer summary of the last poll, but I will stick to the highlights on this one. Also take a look at the companion memo as well.

Hit the link for more poll wonkery ... Read More

MLB vs Sinclair: make it happen!

niq77174

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Tuesday October 12, 2004 · 11:59 AM PDT

2004/10/12 · 11:59

Apparently 20 of Sinclair's stations are fox affiliates, and there is a
very real chance that running this nonsense next week might pre-empt
normal primetime coverage would pre-empt playoff baseball if any of the
series go to 6 or 7 games.

This brings another class of businesses that have incentive to get
Sinclair to stop this nonsense. Can you imagine the outcry from Major
League Baseball if 10% of the country can't watch game 6 or 7 of the
Yankees-Red Sox series?

Here's a list of FOX affiliates owned by Sinclair, since their website
doesn't have a nice table:

*KDEM Des Moines, IA
*WRGT Dayton, OH
*WVAH Charleston, WV
*WTTE Columbus, OH
*WMSN Madison, WI
*WPGH Pittsburgh, PA
*WSMH Flint/Saginaw/Bay City, MI
*WZTV Nashville, TN
*WEMT Tri-Cities, TN
*WRLH Richmond, VA
*WBBF Baltimore, MD
*WDKY Lexington, KY
*KBSI Paducah, KY
*WSYT Syracuse, NY
*WUHF Rochester, NY
*WUTV Buffalo, NY
*KABB San Antonio, TX
*WYZZ Peoria/Bloomington, IL
*WTAT Charleston, SC
*KOKH Oklahoma City, OK

And I'm happy to be proved wrong!

niq77174

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Wednesday October 06, 2004 · 3:27 PM PDT

2004/10/06 · 15:27

Between debates, I hypothesized that Kerry won by alternating plain spokenness with elaboration, while Bush spoke only in staccatto sound bites. I also guessed, based on the 2000 debates, that the VP debate generally tended to be more "sophisticated". The argument was based on the relatively high reading level of the Cheney-Lieberman debate. Thus I suspected that Cheney would out-wonk Edwards, whose strengths lie in stump speaking, being Southern, and being likeable.

Now, I underestimated Edwards' policy knowledge on health care, where he made good points on PBoR, "tort reform", and railed against the Medicare bill. Plus, the White House has no domestic record they can out-wonk anyone with; they have an unfunded education bill and a terrible terrible Medicare Bill. But depending on how much credibility people give Dick Cheney's various foreign policy points, he might be said to have come out ahead for the first half of the debate.

But polls of undecideds seem so show that Johnny Sunshine came out ahead; despite the fact that all he did on Iraq was repeat the winning lines from the first debate. So let me be the first to say that they were right, and I was wrong.

Why Kerry won the first debate; Why Cheney will Tuesday

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Monday October 04, 2004 · 8:34 PM PDT

2004/10/04 · 20:34

It's time for some numerical politcal fun that doesn't involve polling!. As hard as it is to believe, there is more to life than margins of error and subgroups.

Below, I'll take a look at the reading level and distribution of word and sentence length of what Bush and Kerry had to say on Thursday, why Kerry came across more effectively (aside from the visuals and stuttering, which were very obvious), and why there's a very good chance John Edwards will lose the VP debate. Read More

That liberal media?

niq77174

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Saturday October 02, 2004 · 6:47 PM PDT

2004/10/02 · 18:47

It looks like the mainstream press is starting to turn.

Tonight's CBS news segment on the campaign led with Kerry talking on the economy, and Mike McCurry not doing enough to lower expectations. The piece on Kerry shows everyone being very energetic. Flip to the Bush segment, which shows Kerry saying "... and you can prove to the world that you did it for legitimate reasons", then shows Bush talking up "the global test" remark, then immediately states "It's a misrepresentation of what Kerry said".

Now we need the earned media to fact check the global test thing as fradulent.

Smell the fear, folks. But keep pushing!

Punching back: 'global test'

niq77174

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Saturday October 02, 2004 · 3:13 PM PDT

2004/10/02 · 15:13

It appears that far and away, the big line the GOP wants to take from the first debate is Kerry's "global test" phrase, which is already in Bush's stump speech along with a bit of xenophobia and hatred of politics. We must, we must, we MUST push back and remind the world that no President is going to cede US military sovereignty. If anything, our current occupation of Iraq represents the heaviest restrictions on US military use in recent history.

Write your newspaper today. Join the Reverse Reagan Revolution.

The other thing I've notice is a marked change in the President's voice. It sounds more nervous, like Al Gore in 2000, or GHWBush in 1992. These guys can see it coming and there's nothing they can do to stop it.

All Democracy Corps All the Time

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Wednesday September 22, 2004 · 8:21 PM PDT

2004/09/22 · 20:21

Democracy Corps is your one stop shop for election insights. They have a new pre-debate PDF that outlines what should be going on right now inside the Kerry HQ.

Anyone who for some unknown reason has followed my diary will know I think Stan Greenberg & Co have far an away the clearest picture of what's going on with the electorate. So check below the fold for my summary of this slideshow: Read More

What Bush Bounce? NBC/WSJ poll results

niq77174

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Wednesday September 22, 2004 · 6:25 PM PDT

2004/09/22 · 18:25

Somehow I haven't seen an entry on this among the many places I read, but NBC has released the results of their latest poll:

Candidate	March	May	June	July	8/27	9/19
Bush	46	46	45	47	47	48
Kerry	43	42	44	45	45	45

By this poll, then, there has been virtually no Bush bounce. So, in case you haven't heard, everyone calm down, take a few deep breaths, get back to canvassing or phonebanking or whatever it is you're doing. And stop saying "tax relief".

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