First off, I just want to thank David Nir, James L., Crisistunity, and jeffmd, the editors of Swing State Project for putting a whole lot of work into the change and making this adjustment all the better. As a loyal SSPer, it's nice to see old and new faces (usernames)! I'll miss the old community, but I'm having fun here already, so it's all good!
Anyway, nycyoungin hates talking about himself. Let's get to the nitty gritty: A compromise map of New York.
It's amazing what one State Senate seat can do. If Antoine Thompson held a seat that went overwhelmingly for Gore, Kerry, and Obama (and, amazingly, maybe even Cuomo when Erie County went for Paladino), we would be looking at a potential 25-2 or 24-3 Democratic delegation in New York. Now, we're looking at another compromise, sadly, and one that's 21-6. Not horrible, but I would have loved a Democratic State Senate as well as a congress without Ann Marie Buerkle and Mike Grimm... though, the former will probably be thrown under the proverbial bus anyway.
Here's my map, which uses 2010 Census numbers. I had to redraw the map on a map using 2000 Census numbers, giving me 2008 election data (so it took a lot of time, would love comments!!!!). Please note, I have partisan numbers for all districts except in NYC (which are all Safe D anyways and time consuming, except for Weiner and Grimm, whose districts I will update soon). Also, all demographic data is in VAP (voting age population). All VRA seats are protected (though I couldn't make Meek's black majority anymore).
Point of reference (the current map):
My proposed map:
Tim Bishop (D-Southampton)
The district gets a little more safer for Bishop, who won in a marginal district in an extremely bad year for Democrats. He should be safe from now on.
Steve Israel (D-Huntington) Gary Ackerman (D-Roslyn Heights)
The seat gets a little weaker to shore up Bishop, but Islip and minority voters should keep Israel safe in this D+2 district. Note, Ackerman lives here, but could choose to run against King or McCarthy.
Peter King (R-Oyster Bay)
King continues to be safe here, Safe R or likely R if Ackerman runs here.
Carolyn McCarthy (D-Mineola)
Adds a tiny bit of NYC, safe D regardless.
New York City
Yvette Clarke (D-Brooklyn)
52% Black VAP, Safe Democratic
Greg Meeks (D-Queens)
46% Black VAP, Safe Democratic
Joe Crowley (D-Queens)
24.6 White, 21.2 Black, 37.6 Hispanic, 14.6 Asian, Safe Democratic
Jerold Nadler (D-Manhattan)
Anthony Weiner (D-Queens)
Safe Democratic, becomes 46.7 White VAP, 17.8 Hispanic VAP, 28.7 Asian VAP should be >60% Obama (will run numbers later)
Ed Towns (D-Brooklyn)
51.4 Black VAP, Safe Democratic
NY-11 Light Green
Nydia Velazquez (D-Brooklyn)
41.2 Hispanic VAP (plurality White VAP is 33.5), Safe Democratic
NY-12 Staten Island Blue
Mike Grimm (R-Staten Island)
Still swingy, Lean R (will run numbers later)
Carolyn Maloney (D-Manhattan)
Charlie Rangel (D-Manhattan)
28.6 White VAP, 21.7 Black VAP, 40.3 Hispanic VAP, Safe Democratic
Jose Serrano (D-Bronx)
64 Hispanic VAP, Most Democratic in nation
Eliot Engel (D-Bronx)
White VAP 47.1, Black VAP 17.3, Hispanic VAP 27.6
NY-17 Dark Blue
Nita Lowey (D-Harrison)
Nan Hayworth (R-Mount Kisco)
Made a point more Republican.
NY-19 Greenish Yellow
Maurice Hinchey (D-Saugerties)
Adds all of Tompkins County to keep Hinchey safe.
NY-20 Light Beige
Paul Tonko (D-Amsterdam)
Adds all of Otsego to make up population, still Safe D
Chris Gibson (R-Kinderhook)
Adds Hamilton and Herkimer to make it a few more points Republican. Gibson is not safe, but life gets a tad easier.
Bill Owens (D-Plattsburgh)
Adds heavily Democratic parts of Syracuse to strengthen Owens. Goes from R+2 to D+4 to D+6. Pretty cool.
Richard Hanna (R-Barneveld)
Arcuri's old district goes becomes a McCain district by losing Tompkins and adding Lewis and Watertown.
Louise Slaugher (D-Fairport)
Now completely based in Monroe County, no more earmuffs, still safe D (unless Robach runs, which would make it Likely D)
NY-25 Southern Tier Pink
Tom Reed (R-Corning)
Now firmly Republican, taking in Buffalo suburbs and exurbs.
NY-26 Sprawling Gray
Jane Corwin (R-Clarence) or Kathy Hochul (D-Hamburg) and Ann Marie Buerkle (R-Syracuse)
If Corwin wins, then I expect for her to be thrown in with Buerkle, the two least senior members of the delegation. (I know Hanna and Gibson are just as senior, but it's clear that even the GOP doesn't think Buerkle's ready for prime time.) It's a Safe R district, and it's about an even fight. Some of Syracuse is in it, so is both of their homes. If Corwin wins, then I expect they'll tether parts of Rochester and Buffalo with Hamburg for a new Dem-leaning seat, and put Buerkle and Hanna together. Regardless, I'm doing this on the assumption that Corwin is going to win, but that's no slam dunk.
NY-27 Buffalo Green
Brian Higgins (D-Buffalo)
Special thanks to Dave Bradlee, whose application has led to brilliant maps, and a whole lot of finals procrastination!