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NY-St. Sen-District 27: Follow Brad Hoylman!

This is my first diary post in awhile, but it is undoubtedly my most important one. I’m writing today to give you all an update on an important New York State Senate race, where we have an opportunity to elect a solid progressive in the mold of his predecessor, LGBT hero Senator Tom Duane.  The candidate is Brad Hoylman.  Brad, the three term chairman of Community Board 2 in Lower Manhattan, is running in the 27th Senate District with the endorsements of Senator Duane, City Council Speaker Christine Quinn, U.S. Representatives Carolyn Maloney, Jerry Nadler and Nydia Velazquez, and a whole host of local legislators, labor unions, and civic organizations.

hoylman 2

I've known Brad and his partner David for years. I just celebrated the one year birthday of their daughter Silvia with them. And I know Brad is perfect for the job. A Rhodes Scholar, Brad brings intelligence mixed with a real dedication to public service that is desperately needed in Albany. His priorities are campaign finance reform, fighting for a living wage for all New Yorkers, and making sure transgender individuals in New York get the protection they need with the Gender Non-Discrimination Act.  He will make sure that he puts progressive New York values first.

Yes, I’m writing to you as a volunteer of the campaign, but I’m not soliciting any donations (of course, you can always do that). All I’m asking for you to do is check out what Brad is all about by clicking “like” on his Facebook page here: https://www.facebook.com/... or following him on Twitter: https://twitter.com/.... It’ll take a second of your time.

Progressives need to rally around Hoylman to bring substantive reforms and change in Albany. We need a champion of labor, LGBT rights, and someone who can stand up to stop and frisk. I am confident he will do the west side of Manhattan proud.

Daily Kos’ mission is to elect better Democrats, and in this respect, Brad Hoylman goes above and beyond. Please join me in following the campaign on Facebook and Twitter!

Discuss

Anyone who knows me both in person or on DK Elections/SSP knows I love to draw maps. I've published maps, I'm scrapped maps, I've practiced maps. I love redistricting...

Anyway, I think I've made my best map yet. I think I've succeeded in making a clean, compact, and Democrat-favored congressional map. How would this get enacted? A commission could produce this OR Dems could make a deal with some Senate GOPers for more favorable districts for them. I really like this map, and this is something that Dems should propose. It's a genuine 23-3-1 (probably 23-4) map in neutral years.

My goals:
-Produce a map that follows CoIs and most county lines
-Follow the VRA (I added two new Hispanic VAP majority seats)
    -Charlie Rangel and Joe Crowley have two new Hispanic-majority seats
    -Ackerman now has an Asian plurality seat
    -Though Greg Meeks' district lost population, I see no reason why it needs to go to Nassau County. This can be debated.
-Make Dems slightly favored, but not enough to kill any kind of deal
-Make most Democratic congresspeople happy (Crowley, Rangel, and Velazquez would not be thrilled)
-Keep Monroe County mostly in tact

The map:

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Tim Bishop (D-Southampton)
Obama 52%

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Steve Israel (D-Huntington)
Obama 59%

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Peter King (R-Oyster Bay) -- Lives out of district
Obama 45%

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Carolyn McCarthy (D-Mineola)
Obama 59%

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Gary Ackerman (D-Roslyn Heights)
Obama 63.5%
Asian VAP plurality: 40.5%

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Greg Meeks (D-Queens)
Obama 86.3%
Black VAP plurality: 41%

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Joe Crowley (D-Queens)
Obama 80%
Hispanic VAP majority: 50.4%

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Jerry Nadler (D-Manhattan)
Obama 79%

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Nydia Velazquez (D-Queens)
Obama 77%
White majority VAP: 56%
(I'd argue this is legal: I made two new Hispanic majority districts, this wasn't majority before, and the predecessor has lost Hispanic population as a percentage.)

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Yvette Clarke (D-Brooklyn)
Obama 84%
Black majority VAP: 50.6%

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Ed Towns (D-Brooklyn)
Obama 84.6%
Black majority VAP: 51.8%

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Jose Serrano (D-Bronx)
Obama 91%
Hispanic majority VAP: 58%

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Mike Grimm (R-Staten Island)
Obama 52%

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Carolyn Maloney (D-Manhattan)
Obama 79.5%

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Charlie Rangel (D-Manhattan)
Obama 93.4%
Hispanic majority VAP: 50.1%

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Nita Lowey (D-Harrison)
Obama 60.5%

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Nan Hayworth (R-Mount Kisco)
Obama 55.6%

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Eliot Engel (D-Bronx)
Obama 65%
Majority minority VAP: 51%

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Maurice Hinchey (D-Saugerties)
Obama 57%

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Paul Tonko (D-Amsterdam)
Obama 57.5%

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Bill Owens (D-Plattsburgh) and Chris Gibson (R-Kinderhook)
Obama 54.5%

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Richard Hanna (R-Barneveld)
Obama 46.5%

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Ann Marie Buerkle (R-Syracuse)
Obama 56.5%

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Louise Slaughter (D-Fairport)
Obama 59%

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Tom Reed (R-Corning)
Obama 45%

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Kathy Hochul (D-Hamburg)
Obama 53%

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Brian Higgins (D-Buffalo)
Obama 56%

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Discuss

The 2010 Census data files were screwing up for me, so I used 2000 with 2008 election data. Anyway, I used new pop. estimates, so it shouldn't be that different.

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It looks nicer than the governor's proposal, allows Edwards to increase the black population to 60.6% black VAP, and allows Cummings to be at 55.7% VAP and 68.7% Obama. MD-01 is now 53.2% Obama, MD-02 is 56% Obama, MD-03 is 57% Obama, Van Hollen's is at about 61% and Barlett is about 55%. Hoyer is super safe... everyone should be happy, no?

Discuss

I published another map awhile ago that didn't have the exact data, but now here we go with the numbers! This map should maintain at least a 12-5-1 GOP majority, a pretty good map for the PA GOP considering the state went 54% for Obama. I eliminated Critz's district, which everyone expects to happen. I also made it vulnerable enough that a Republican could overtake whomever wins the primary between Altmire and Critz. I'd say the Democrat would be slightly favored, especially since both held on last year in a terrible year in R-leaning districts.

The PA GOP would be dumb not to do something like this. I think Fitzpatrick's and some other seats might flip eventually, but this is a perfect map for the IMO.

This map strengthens every single Republican(!) who needs it. It really only hurts Platts, but his "moderate" profile should keep him in what is still a VERY Republican district. I bring Meehan, Gerlach, and Fitzpatrick down to a (probable) R-leaning PVI. Erie is completely sunk by putting all of Butler County and some very red Pittsburgh suburbs.

Ironically, the map helps keep Holden's seat blue. It's still anchored in Schuylkill County but also contains all of Reading, Scranton, and Wilkes-Barre. That helps Gerlach, Pitts, and Barletta. It also helps Dent by allowing him to absorb some redder precincts in aforementioned Schuylkill. Unfortunately for Blue Dog Holden, a more progressive Democrat could beat the iron man.

And here's the worst part for Dems. It's not only cleaner than the current map, Drexel Hill and Philadelphia are the only town/city split in the entire state!! Philly by necessity, Drexel Hill to accommodate Meehan.

Sorry for the title exuberance. I'm just pumped I get to finally get this up!

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Now, district-by-distict maps!

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Bob Brady (D-Philadelphia)
83.4% Obama
16.0%
50.4% Black VAP

Not much to see here, but it soaks up some D-leaning suburbs in Delaware.

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Chakkah Fattah (D-Philadelphia)
87.2 Obama
12.3 McCain

Still plurality black, but not by much. Safe D.

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Mike Fitzpatrick (R-Levittown)
52.9 Obama
46.0 McCain

I added R-leaning precincts in Philly and Montgomery. Still a swing district, but an easier hold.

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Allyson Schwartz (D-Jenkintown)
65.5 Obama
33.7 McCain

D-vote sink in the 'burbs. She should be fine.

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Pat Meehan (R-Drexel Hill)
52.3 Obama
46.9 McCain

Now definitely R-leaning, a significant step back for Dems. Still winnable, but Lancaster exurbs make this pretty tough, especially against the moderate-seeming Meehan.

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Jim Gerlach (R-West Pikeland Township)
52.7 Obama
46.3 McCain

Also now a definite R-lean, Gerlach also enjoys Lancaster 'burbs to help.

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Charlie Dent (R-Allentown)
Obama 55.5
McCain 43.2

I'd be most concerned about this district after Fitzpatrick, but Dent has won and now is more R-leaning.

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Tom Marino (R-Lycoming Township)
Obama 43.0
McCain 55.8

Now super safe, I can't see how a D could win this.

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Tim Holden (D-St. Clair)
Obama 60.4
McCain 38.4

Vote sink! Look at the intro.

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Lou Barletta (R-Hazleton)
Obama 43.5
McCain 55.3

Permanently R, Barletta would love this.

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Joe Pitts (R-Lancaster)
Obama 45.4
McCain 53.6

Even though he loses a whole lot of R suburbs, he loses Reading, making the district really super duper safe.

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Glenn Thompson (R-Howard Township)
Obama 44.4
McCain 54.2

I help Thompson a little, not that he needs it.

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Todd Platts (R-York)
Obama 45.9
McCain 53.0

I added Harrisburg to allow Holden to take Scranton. Still, Platts may enjoy a district a  little more D.

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Bill Shuster (R-Hollidaysburg)
Obama 41.4
McCain 57.3

I eliminate the Murtha district without getting Shuster upset. #win

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Mike Kelly (R-Butler)
Obama 46.6
McCain 52.1

Concentrated more on the Pittsburgh 'burbs, Erie no longer has much influence there.

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Jason Altmire (D-McCandless) and Mark Critz (D-Johnstown)
Obama 47.1
McCain 51.8

Takes up some historically blue areas, but it's trending R, and whoever wins will have to face that reality for quite some time.

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Tim Murphy (R-Upper St. Clair)
Obama 43.3
McCain 55.7

Safe R, doesn't change much.

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Mike Doyle (D-Penn Hills)
Obama 66.9
McCain 30.2

Safe D, has to expand for population.

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Discuss

Hey guys. I'm really sorry I can't be more thorough in this write up. I accidentally closed the window when taking screenshots, though luckily I snapped one before it closed.

I remember the numbers, so it should be fine. This map cements the GOP gains made last November.

The map strengthens Murphy, Kelly, Barletta, Marino, Pitts, Gerlach, Dent, and, most importantly, Holden. It eliminates the Murthamander and makes the Altmire/Critz seat vulnerable.

This map is more mischievous because not a single township is broken up except for Philadelphia; this is a HUGE contrast to today's map. Also, my map forces Holden to run in a Democratic vote sink--this might be the only way to defeat the Iron Man.

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PA-1 Bob Brady Purple (Philadelphia, Chester)
Overwhelmingly Democratic, VAP Black majority

PA-2 Chakkah Fattah Green (Philadelphia)
Overwhelmingly Democratic, Black plurality

PA-3 Mike Fitzpatrick Purple (Bucks County)
52.9% Obama

PA-4 Allyson Schwartz Red (Philly Suburbs)
~65% Obama

PA-5 Pat Meehan Yellow (Philly Suburbs)
53% Obama

PA-6 Jim Gerlach Teal (Philly Exurbs)
52.5% Obama

PA-7 Charlie Dent Gray (Allentown-Bethlehem)
55.5% Obama

PA-8 Joe Pitts Blueish-Green (Lancaster)
45% Obama

PA-9 Tim Holden Yellow (Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, Reading)
60.7% Obama

PA-10 Lou Barletta Black (Hazelton)
42.5% Obama

PA-11 Tom Marino Pink (Scranton Exurbs)
43% Obama

PA-12 Todd Platts Blue (York)
45% Obama

PA-13 Glenn Thompson (State College/Rural North)
~44% Obama

PA-14 Bill Shuster (Altoona/Pittsburgh Exurbs)
42% Obama

PA-15 Mike Kelly (Butler/Erie)
46% Obama

PA-16 Jason Altmire/Mark Critz (Pittsburgh Suburbs/Johnstown)
47% Obama

PA-17 Tim Murphy (Pittsburgh Suburbs)
43.5% Obama

PA-18 Mike Doyle (Pittsburgh)
67% Obama

Discuss

Fri Jul 01, 2011 at 04:18 PM PDT

A 9-3 Democratic New Jersey

by nycyoungin

New Jersey employs a bipartisan commission to create their districts made up of a board of 6 Democratic members, 6 Republican members, and one independent member. This past year, Democrats got their state legislative maps approved my winning over the independent member of the board.

My proposal is a 8-3-LoBiondo map. In my map, I barely split any city OR township, with the except of about five or six. I have one black-VAP-majority seat based in Newark and Jersey City and one Hispanic-majority and Hispanic-VAP-minority seat based in the same area. I think this map could be passed, as it respects a lot of communities of interest and gets rid of those ugly snake districts. The map shores up Holt and gets rid of Lance (or Frelinghuysen) and Runyan (for sure) and likely gets rid of LoBiondo.

Let me know what you think!

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CD 1 Rob Andrews (D-Haddon Heights)

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Obama 61.5
Democrats 59.6

Becomes a bit less Democratic to make LoBiondo's district a tad bluer. Still Safe D.

CD 2 Frank LoBiondo (R-Ventnor)

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Obama 58.3
Democrats 56.1

I don't know if LoBiondo could hold this district. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe only Bob Dold! holds a more Democratic district than this one (maybe Barletta or Gerlach?). I think LoBiondo could survive a few years, but it's gone when a 2006 or a 2008 comes around. Even in a neutral year, Frank might be toast.

CD 3 Empty [Chris Smith (R-Hamilton) or Jon Runyan (R-Mount Laurel Township)

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Obama 42.1
Democrats 41.9

A Republican Ocean County-based vote sink. Neither lives here, but Smith and Runyan represent most of this territory.

CD 4 Rush Holt (D-Hopewell Township)

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Obama 63.3
Democrats 58.1

It doesn't take a rocket scientist (or a master physicist) to shore up Holt. Seat becomes the third most Democratic district in New Jersey. All of Trenton and only two counties now.

CD 5 Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-Morristown) and Leonard Lance (R-Clinton Township)

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Obama 47.1
Democrats 43.3

This district is quite ugly and the most concern for Democrats. It makes up five counties, which is not ideal, but then again Frelinghuysen's current district does too, so maybe it's justifiable. A Republican vote sink, it's highly unlikely a Democrat could win here.

CD 6 Frank Pallone (D-Long Branch)

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Obama 57.5
Democrats 55.7

Pallone had a hard time in 2010, and might have lost this district last year. Still, I can't imagine this district flipping in any year besides 2010. It's really hard to make this more Democratic without risking CD 7. I guarantee you that both CD 6 and CD 7 will be Democratic most years and at least one will be all the time. Therefore, not a dummymander.

CD 7 Empty

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Obama 57.7
Democrats 54.7

A new seat based in New York suburbs, a Democrat should be strongly favored, as it's around D+5. It's a little swingy, but I'm sure an Edison-based Dem will win.

CD 8 Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson)

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Obama 57.3
Democrats 57.4

Far less Democratic than its predecessor, the population numbers forces an expansion into more Republican territory. Should be Safe D.

CD 9 Albio Sires (D-West New York)

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Obama 71.8
Democrats 72.1

It's Hispanic majority at 50.6% and VAP plurality at 48%. It's not currently a VRA district, so I didn't weaken it, and in fact it's more Hispanic. It can be made more Hispanic, but then it's less compact.

CD 10 Donald Payne (D-Newark)

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Obama 83.5
Democrats 80.1

50.1% black VAP, mostly Newark and Jersey City.

CD 11 Steve Rothman (D-Fair Lawn)

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Obama 58.5
Democrats 58.7

Less Democratic, yet safe D.

CD 12 Scott Garrett (R-Wantage)

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Obama 42.7
Democrats 39.8

Republican vote sink.

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Townships:

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Discuss

Well who lost out of this whole thing? Definitely Weiner and his family. The media. New York City is embarrassed.

But more than embarrassed, it might cost the city a seat with redistricting coming around. They may eliminate Weiner's district now.

Who won?

Besides the rightwingosphere, probably Gary Ackerman, whose district is probably saved now due to Weinergate. I just redrew the lines, resulting in this map:

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I've drawn a lot of maps over the last year or so, but I feel best about this one. It shores up Hochul, keeps Hayworth and Grimm at essentially the same partisan makeup, eliminates Gibson, and shores up both Owens (now 55% Obama with Schenectady), Bishop (52% Obama) and and Hanna (46% Obama). I think this is a good deal for both sides, eliminates Weiner, keeps all VRA districts (Meeks is now under 50% black, though). It gives Monroe County a real sphere of influence in one district. I think everyone is happy here, unless, well, you're Weiner (or Buerkle or Gibson...)

Plus, Weiner's district is completely gone, absorbed by five districts. He could face Ackerman, but Nassau County and most of the Queens part is unfamiliar to him. I'm not necessarily advocating eliminating Weiner's district, but this would be the way to do it.

FWIW, I think Gibson's district will be eliminated. I think Dems will demand a Syracuse district to remain, while fully eliminating another.

Continue Reading

It's universal among Swingnuts, pundits, and Kossacks alike that Ohio is probably going to draw a 12-4 map, giving Ryan, Kaptur, and Fudge safe seats. The fourth seat will either be in Columbus or Cleveland, where Kucinich and Sutton would duke it out.

In my gerrymander, I continue to split Columbus, while making Stivers safer and not really endangering Tiberi. Furthermore, I give every strongly-blue precinct in Cuyahoga to Kaptur or Fudge, focing Sutton into the strongly-Republican 13th district or into a primary battle with Rep. Ryan. Kucinich now must face Kaptur, but Kaptur has the geographical edge.

This map would protect Renacci, Gibbs, and Johnson, even though Gibbs' district is more Democratic (he takes in parts of Columbus). All 13 should be safe GOP in a neutral year, but in a strongly-Dem year, I suppose Johnson's, Stivers, and Tiberi's could flip. But anyway, 8 years out of 10, this map will yield 13 GOPers.

All numbers are attached to the photos. Sorry if they're too small to read (I can read them, but if you want clarification I'll post it). Enjoy! (All deviation is under 400)

IMPORTANT: numbers for Districts 1, 2, 3, and 16 are missing, but if you click the districts you get them. 1, 2, and 3 are all safe R, while 16 is black VAP majority and strongly Dem.

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OH-1 Steve Chabot (R-Cincinnati)

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OH-2 Mean Jean Schmidt (R-Miami Township)

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OH-3 John Boehner (R-West Chester)

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OH-4 Jim Turner (R-Dayton)

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OH-5 Steve Stivers (R-Columbus)

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OH-6 Pat Tiberi (R-Galena)

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OH-7 Bob Latta (R-Bowling Green)

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OH-8 Steve Austria (R-Beaver Creek)

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OH-9 Bill Johnson (R-Poland)

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OH-10 Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) and Dennis Kucinich (D-Cleveland)

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OH-11 Bob Gibbs (R-Lakeville)

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OH-12 Jim Jordan (R-Urbana)

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OH-13 Jim Renacci (R-Wadsworth)

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OH-14 Steve LaTourette (R-Bainbridge Township)

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OH-15 Tim Ryan (D-Niles) and Betty Sutton (D-Copley)

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OH-16 Marcia Fudge (D-Warrensville Heights)

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Poll

What do you think? (Thinking as GOPer)

21%12 votes
12%7 votes
10%6 votes
45%26 votes
10%6 votes

| 57 votes | Vote | Results

Discuss

Sorry this diary is short, but I want to get a dialogue going on NY-26 redistricting. In my post earlier (you can find it through my diaries), I have a Erie to Onondaga district set up for Corwin if she wins, but I want to get a dialogue going for Hochul if she wins.

Here's my plan:

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Higgins gets marginally safer at around 58% Obama, Slaughter is at 60% and Hochul is about at 57%. Let me know what you think! FWIW, Hochul, who lives in Hamburg, doesn't currently live in NY-26 and won't under my plan either. The populations are based on 2010 Census numbers.

P.S. I know the election is far from a done deal, but I'm just curious, at this very moment, what y'all think.

EDIT: I was inspired by SaoMagnifico to run a Dem gerrymander of Upstate. This is what I got:

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I haven't run the numbers yet, but eye balling it, Hanna is probably at 46-48% Obama, Gibson is at 53-55% and Hayworth at 54-56%

Discuss

Good morning! As I sit here in beautiful New York State, I just read the PPP poll that has Democrat Kathy Hochul leading Republican Jane Corwin by 6 percentage points only a day a change before the voters of New York's 26th Congressional District vote in a special election to replace disgraced Fmr. Rep. Chris Lee.

As it stands, Hochul is in strong position to win, but she needs our help to win. In every election GOTV can be the difference maker. But this is a special election, with makes GOTV even more crucial.

Now how can you help? Senator Gillibrand pointed out you can volunteer in the area by contacting Volunteer@KathyHochul.com or (716) 861-6881.

OR,

You can join me in making phone calls from the comfort of your own home!

WHY SHOULD I HELP?!?!

• Read Senator Gillibrand's post with talking points about Hochul stands up for labor and the middle class

But if that doesn't convince you:

• Jane Corwin supports Paul Ryan's plan to privatize Medicare
• Jane Corwin supports tax cuts for millionaires like herself
• A win in NY-26 would be a serious blow to the right wing House agenda
• A win has a HUGE redistricting implications: if Hochul wins, then it is likely that NY-26 will gain Democratic territory in Buffalo and Rochester, making it safe for the next ten years
• Democrats will be one seat closer to taking back the House

And, most importantly:

• Jane Corwin likes to hit herself with plates

So, please, please, please, for the sake of my state and the country, MAKE CALLS TODAY!!!!!!11!!!11!!!!!!!

DISCLAIMER: I'm not, in any way, affiliated with the Hochul campaign. I'm just a concerned New Yorker. No more, no less.

Discuss

First off, I just want to thank David Nir, James L., Crisistunity, and jeffmd, the editors of Swing State Project for putting a whole lot of work into the change and making this adjustment all the better. As a loyal SSPer, it's nice to see old and new faces (usernames)! I'll miss the old community, but I'm having fun here already, so it's all good!

Anyway, nycyoungin hates talking about himself. Let's get to the nitty gritty: A compromise map of New York.

It's amazing what one State Senate seat can do. If Antoine Thompson held a seat that went overwhelmingly for Gore, Kerry, and Obama (and, amazingly, maybe even Cuomo when Erie County went for Paladino), we would be looking at a potential 25-2 or 24-3 Democratic delegation in New York. Now, we're looking at another compromise, sadly, and one that's 21-6. Not horrible, but I would have loved a Democratic State Senate as well as a congress without Ann Marie Buerkle and Mike Grimm... though, the former will probably be thrown under the proverbial bus anyway.

Here's my map, which uses 2010 Census numbers. I had to redraw the map on a map using 2000 Census numbers, giving me 2008 election data (so it took a lot of time, would love comments!!!!). Please note, I have partisan numbers for all districts except in NYC (which are all Safe D anyways and time consuming, except for Weiner and Grimm, whose districts I will update soon). Also, all demographic data is in VAP (voting age population). All VRA seats are protected (though I couldn't make Meek's black majority anymore).

Point of reference (the current map):

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My proposed map:

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Long Island

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NY-1 Blue
Tim Bishop (D-Southampton)
Obama 52.5
McCain 47.3
The district gets a little more safer for Bishop, who won in a marginal district in an extremely bad year for Democrats. He should be safe from now on.

NY-2 Green
Steve Israel (D-Huntington) Gary Ackerman (D-Roslyn Heights)
Obama 54.8
McCain 44.6
The seat gets a little weaker to shore up Bishop, but Islip and minority voters should keep Israel safe in this D+2 district. Note, Ackerman lives here, but could choose to run against King or McCarthy.

NY-3 Purple
Peter King (R-Oyster Bay)
Obama 46.4
McCain 52.8
King continues to be safe here, Safe R or likely R if Ackerman runs here.

NY-4 Red
Carolyn McCarthy (D-Mineola)
Obama 60
McCain 39.3
Adds a tiny bit of NYC, safe D regardless.

New York City

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NY-5 Yellow
Yvette Clarke (D-Brooklyn)
52% Black VAP, Safe Democratic

NY-6 Teal
Greg Meeks (D-Queens)
46% Black VAP, Safe Democratic

NY-7 Gray
Joe Crowley (D-Queens)
24.6 White, 21.2 Black, 37.6 Hispanic, 14.6 Asian, Safe Democratic

NY-8
Jerold Nadler (D-Manhattan)
Safe Democratic

NY-9 Cyan
Anthony Weiner (D-Queens)
Safe Democratic, becomes 46.7 White VAP, 17.8 Hispanic VAP, 28.7 Asian VAP should be >60% Obama (will run numbers later)

NY-10 Pink
Ed Towns (D-Brooklyn)
51.4 Black VAP, Safe Democratic

NY-11 Light Green
Nydia Velazquez (D-Brooklyn)
41.2 Hispanic VAP (plurality White VAP is 33.5), Safe Democratic

NY-12 Staten Island Blue
Mike Grimm (R-Staten Island)
Still swingy, Lean R (will run numbers later)

NY-13 Salmon
Carolyn Maloney (D-Manhattan)
Safe Democratic

NY-14 Beige
Charlie Rangel (D-Manhattan)
28.6 White VAP, 21.7 Black VAP, 40.3 Hispanic VAP, Safe Democratic

NY-15 Orange
Jose Serrano (D-Bronx)
Obama 94.8
McCain 5
64 Hispanic VAP, Most Democratic in nation

NY-16 Lime
Eliot Engel (D-Bronx)
Obama 64
McCain 35.3
White VAP 47.1, Black VAP 17.3, Hispanic VAP 27.6

NY-17 Dark Blue
Nita Lowey (D-Harrison)
Obama 63.3
McCain 36

Upstate

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NY-18 Yellow
Nan Hayworth (R-Mount Kisco)
Obama 50
McCain 49

Made a point more Republican.

NY-19 Greenish Yellow
Maurice Hinchey (D-Saugerties)
Obama 59.9
McCain 38.5

Adds all of Tompkins County to keep Hinchey safe.

NY-20 Light Beige
Paul Tonko (D-Amsterdam)
Obama 57.9
McCain 40.2

Adds all of Otsego to make up population, still Safe D

NY-21 Maroon
Chris Gibson (R-Kinderhook)
Obama 49.5
McCain 48.8

Adds Hamilton and Herkimer to make it a few more points Republican. Gibson is not safe, but life gets a tad easier.

NY-22 Brown
Bill Owens (D-Plattsburgh)
Obama 58.7
McCain 39.6

Adds heavily Democratic parts of Syracuse to strengthen Owens. Goes from R+2 to D+4 to D+6. Pretty cool.

NY-23 Turquoise
Richard Hanna (R-Barneveld)
Obama 49.1
McCain 49.2

Arcuri's old district goes becomes a McCain district by losing Tompkins and adding Lewis and Watertown.

NY-24 Purple
Louise Slaugher (D-Fairport)
Obama 58.9
McCain 39.9

Now completely based in Monroe County, no more earmuffs, still safe D (unless Robach runs, which would make it Likely D)

NY-25 Southern Tier Pink
Tom Reed (R-Corning)
Obama 45.6
McCain 52.8

Now firmly Republican, taking in Buffalo suburbs and exurbs.

NY-26 Sprawling Gray
Jane Corwin (R-Clarence) or Kathy Hochul (D-Hamburg) and Ann Marie Buerkle (R-Syracuse)
Obama 45.2
McCain 53.2

If Corwin wins, then I expect for her to be thrown in with Buerkle, the two least senior members of the delegation. (I know Hanna and Gibson are just as senior, but it's clear that even the GOP doesn't think Buerkle's ready for prime time.) It's a Safe R district, and it's about an even fight. Some of Syracuse is in it, so is both of their homes. If Corwin wins, then I expect they'll tether parts of Rochester and Buffalo with Hamburg for a new Dem-leaning seat, and put Buerkle and Hanna together. Regardless, I'm doing this on the assumption that Corwin is going to win, but that's no slam dunk.

NY-27 Buffalo Green
Brian Higgins (D-Buffalo)
Obama 63.4
McCain 35.1

Special thanks to Dave Bradlee, whose application has led to brilliant maps, and a whole lot of finals procrastination!

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