The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency

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Friday June 03, 2011 · 1:31 PM PDT

2011/06/03 · 13:31

I wrote this after the OBL capture. But I posted it and it didn't get much attention.

American University Professor Allan Lichtman created the 13 Keys to the Presidency. The system predicts who will win the White House popular vote in the next election. It has been right going back to 1860, although it failed in 2000, when Gore lost the electoral college to George W. Bush. In order for the incumbent part to win it needs eight out of the thirteen.

The key point: At this point, as 2012 looms, Obama has nine of the thirteen. Based on this system he is a favorite for re-election as of June 2011.

UPDATE: Lichtman addresses where Obama stands as of 27 May 2011. He states:

With Key 11 now secure for the party in power, it has only three keys likely turned against it for 2012, three short of the fatal six negative keys. Thus, President Obama could endure additional setbacks and still win re-election, regardless of whom the Republicans nominate next year. This tally also conservatively counts the incumbent charisma Key against Obama, a very close call.

A key-by-key explanation follows beneath the fold.

oceanstar17

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Tuesday May 10, 2011 · 9:23 PM PDT

2011/05/10 · 21:23

Today's post about the Latino population was very interesting. The post showed where Latino population growth was the strongest, but what caught my attention were the row of counties along the OK/TX Pahandle border.

The key point: The row of TX counties that border the OK/TX Panhandle have a large share of Hispanics by population, yet are very Republican. That inconsistency caught my attention. It makes me wonder if the GOP could possibly create a VRA district in that part of TX that is still heavily Republican.

More beneath the fold

oceanstar17

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Monday May 02, 2011 · 1:18 PM PDT

2011/05/02 · 13:18

The key point: At this point, as 2012 looms, Obama has nine of the thirteen. Based on this system he is a favorite for re-election as of May 2011.

A key-by-key explanation follows beneath the fold.

oceanstar17

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Friday April 15, 2011 · 6:05 PM PDT

2011/04/15 · 18:05

The Key Point: Harry and Louise destroyed the Clinton Plan in 1993. Their ads effectively stopped the Clinton Plan and turned the public against it. Harry and Louis could also do the same to Ryan Medicare Plan.

More beneath the fold

oceanstar17

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Friday March 11, 2011 · 6:39 PM PST

2011/03/11 · 18:39

So today I had my annual physical with my doctor. This is a doctor who has joined a network called Privia Health. While he still accepts insurance, to be guaranteed appointments with him instead of his nurse practitioner or PA, I would have to join. The fee is only $25 per month, so I signed up because I like the doctor.

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The failure of the left on healthcare

oceanstar17

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Friday September 04, 2009 · 9:14 PM PDT

2009/09/04 · 21:14

With the public option all but dead and an extremely watered down plan the likely result it is time to focus on the post-mortem and develop a lessons learned for the future. It is no doubt that the left has failed to win this debate. Although the debate is still not yet fully over, based on the dynamics at hand, it looks like meaningful reform is not going to pass.

The bottom line is that, even though they have known that they have a problem for years, liberals and progressives still don't know how to communicate their message and use the media effectively. In an era where message is everything, with future policy battles yet to come, it is important that the left learn these lessons.

More beneath the fold.

oceanstar17

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Thursday August 20, 2009 · 3:42 PM PDT

2009/08/20 · 15:42

And so the other day a really obnoxious Washington Post article comes from Kathleen Parker about health-care reform and what Whole Foods' CEO argued for. The reason that I'm writing this post is that I'm going to answer claims blow by blow.

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oceanstar17

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Tuesday August 18, 2009 · 8:12 PM PDT

2009/08/18 · 20:12

I know that this isn't a political diary, but I am having problems with a set that includes a stacked washing machine with a dryer. The Washing Machine is a Eurotech EWF 150. The Dyer is Condenser Dryer EDC158. They both came with a condo that I bought a month ago.

More beneath the fold.

oceanstar17

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Saturday August 15, 2009 · 9:53 PM PDT

2009/08/15 · 21:53

I've been writing several diaries recently on healthcare reform and the issue of PR and marketing. I'm going to go to continue on this theme and write about the concept of "regular Americans". It follows what I wrote in the last post about marketing ideas and low information voters.

More beneath the fold.

oceanstar17

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Monday August 10, 2009 · 12:42 PM PDT

2009/08/10 · 12:42

And so I now write another post about healthcare. Most of my threads have been about why Obama and the Democrats have been losing the healthcare debate. This one follows that trend. In this post I focus again on marketing and selling ideas. More beneath the fold.

oceanstar17

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Friday July 31, 2009 · 5:33 PM PDT

2009/07/31 · 17:33

At the outset I would never post a right-wing article here on this board, but I am making an exception this time. Today in the Post conservative columnist Charles Krauthammer has an article proclaiming that the healthcare plan is dead called Obamacare: The Coming Retreat. I take it apart to express my frustration with how the healthcare debate has turned out beneath the fold.

oceanstar17

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Thursday July 30, 2009 · 6:03 PM PDT

2009/07/30 · 18:03

I am taking the time to write more about the healthcare debate. At the outset I am extremely unhappy with how the debate has unfolded. First of all I have to admit that I am one of the most moderate posters here on this board, but I've come to reluctantly admit that the Blue Dogs have become a problem for the Party here.

More beneath the fold.

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The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency

Texas Hispanic Vote

The 13 Keys to the Presidency

Harry and Louise and Medicare Privitization

The Concierge Practice

The failure of the left on healthcare

Whole-Grain Health Reform

Eurotech Washer and Dryer

Regular Americans

The healthcare debate--understanding marketing

Obamacare: The Coming Retreat

The Healthcare Debate