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I wrote this after the OBL capture. But I posted it and it didn't get much attention.

American University Professor Allan Lichtman created the 13 Keys to the Presidency. The system predicts who will win the White House popular vote in the next election. It has been right going back to 1860, although it failed in 2000, when Gore lost the electoral college to George W. Bush. In order for the incumbent part to win it needs eight out of the thirteen.

The key point: At this point, as 2012 looms, Obama has nine of the thirteen. Based on this system he is a favorite for re-election as of June 2011.

UPDATE: Lichtman addresses where Obama stands as of 27 May 2011. He states:

With Key 11 now secure for the party in power, it has only three keys likely turned against it for 2012, three short of the fatal six negative keys. Thus, President Obama could endure additional setbacks and still win re-election, regardless of whom the Republicans nominate next year. This tally also conservatively counts the incumbent charisma Key against Obama, a very close call.

A key-by-key explanation follows beneath the fold.

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Tue May 10, 2011 at 09:23 PM PDT

Texas Hispanic Vote

by oceanstar17

Today's post about the Latino population was very interesting. The post showed where Latino population growth was the strongest, but what caught my attention were the row of counties along the OK/TX Pahandle border.

The key point: The row of TX counties that border the OK/TX Panhandle have a large share of Hispanics by population, yet are very Republican. That inconsistency caught my attention. It makes me wonder if the GOP could possibly create a VRA district in that part of TX that is still heavily Republican.

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Mon May 02, 2011 at 01:18 PM PDT

The 13 Keys to the Presidency

by oceanstar17

American University Professor Allan Lichtman created the 13 Keys to the Presidency. The system predicts who will win the White House popular vote in the next election. It has been right going back to 1860, although it failed in 2000, when Gore lost the electoral college to George W. Bush. In order for the incumbent part to win it needs eight out of the thirteen.

The key point: At this point, as 2012 looms, Obama has nine of the thirteen. Based on this system he is a favorite for re-election as of May 2011.

A key-by-key explanation follows beneath the fold.

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The Key Point: Harry and Louise destroyed the Clinton Plan in 1993. Their ads effectively stopped the Clinton Plan and turned the public against it. Harry and Louis could also do the same to Ryan Medicare Plan.

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Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 06:39 PM PST

The Concierge Practice

by oceanstar17

So today I had my annual physical with my doctor. This is a doctor who has joined a network called Privia Health. While he still accepts insurance, to be guaranteed appointments with him instead of his nurse practitioner or PA, I would have to join. The fee is only $25 per month, so I signed up because I like the doctor.

more beneath the fold

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With the public option all but dead and an extremely watered down plan the likely result it is time to focus on the post-mortem and develop a lessons learned for the future. It is no doubt that the left has failed to win this debate. Although the debate is still not yet fully over, based on the dynamics at hand, it looks like meaningful reform is not going to pass.

The bottom line is that, even though they have known that they have a problem for years, liberals and progressives still don't know how to communicate their message and use the media effectively. In an era where message is everything, with future policy battles yet to come, it is important that the left learn these lessons.

More beneath the fold.

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Thu Aug 20, 2009 at 03:42 PM PDT

Whole-Grain Health Reform

by oceanstar17

And so the other day a really obnoxious Washington Post article comes from Kathleen Parker about health-care reform and what Whole Foods' CEO argued for. The reason that I'm writing this post is that I'm going to answer claims blow by blow.

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Tue Aug 18, 2009 at 08:12 PM PDT

Eurotech Washer and Dryer

by oceanstar17

I know that this isn't a political diary, but I am having problems with a set that includes a stacked washing machine with a dryer. The Washing Machine is a Eurotech EWF 150. The Dyer is Condenser Dryer EDC158. They both came with a condo that I bought a month ago.

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Sat Aug 15, 2009 at 09:53 PM PDT

Regular Americans

by oceanstar17

I've been writing several diaries recently on healthcare reform and the issue of PR and marketing. I'm going to go to continue on this theme and write about the concept of "regular Americans". It follows what I wrote in the last post about marketing ideas and low information voters.

More beneath the fold.

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And so I now write another post about healthcare. Most of my threads have been about why Obama and the Democrats have been losing the healthcare debate. This one follows that trend. In this post I focus again on marketing and selling ideas. More beneath the fold.

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Fri Jul 31, 2009 at 05:33 PM PDT

Obamacare: The Coming Retreat

by oceanstar17

At the outset I would never post a right-wing article here on this board, but I am making an exception this time. Today in the Post conservative columnist Charles Krauthammer has an article proclaiming that the healthcare plan is dead called Obamacare: The Coming Retreat. I take it apart to express my frustration with how the healthcare debate has turned out beneath the fold.

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Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 06:03 PM PDT

The Healthcare Debate

by oceanstar17

I am taking the time to write more about the healthcare debate. At the outset I am extremely unhappy with how the debate has unfolded. First of all I have to admit that I am one of the most moderate posters here on this board, but I've come to reluctantly admit that the Blue Dogs have become a  problem for the Party here.

More beneath the fold.

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