I haven’t been a Democrat since 2011. I haven’t been here, I haven’t read anything here and I have never felt the loss since then either. But events have overtaken my personal course and there are some things everyone here needs to think about, and time is fast slipping through our fingers. Because, unless something largely out of our control changes, we could very well be going to war with Moscow. And that’s something that’ll happen suddenly and with little or no warning. There’s nothing we can do on our end to change this. Only Putin can affect this course.
Let that sink in.
So far, Biden has done well, walking the tightrope between engagement in Ukraine without crossing the line leading to uncontrolled widening of the war and giving Russians proof their rants about The West have substance. Evidently, he’s been listening to good people. Lets hope this continues. Both Washington and NATO have had constant contact with Moscow, and from what I read, all the proper notes have been struck, but Putin himself cannot be reached. There’s no diplomatic pathway ahead that doesn’t entail profound changes for the worse. He won’t change his mind and anyone who might have been able to threaten his reign have fallen out of windows. The hope that a coup in Moscow will resolve the conflict is, I’m pretty certain, a pipe dream.
Biden has some big constraints. The threat of nuclear escalation remains a possibility and it’s helpful, but not necessary, to remain within the political limits imposed on him by Germany and France, and honestly, Scholz is not quite the wartime consiglieri Germany needs right now, and as usual, the French care more about their status and honneur than reality. Macron is a disaster waiting to happen and may single-handedly break NATO.
Eventually it’ll dawn on everyone what’s at stake here. Because Putin’s not at war with Ukraine. From the outset his intention, was a conflict with The West and if he gets his way, even a little bit, then a return to the bad old days when great powers trampled their neighbors becomes the norm again. IOWs, you win decisively in Ukraine to, for instance, avoid going to war in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. In South America and Africa, and in other places. India and Pakistan comes to mind. As well, if your utmost concern is to avoid a nuclear exchange, then a complete and total victory in Ukraine becomes necessary because anyting less demonstrates that nuclear blackmail actually works. And that opens a can of worms nobody in their right minds wants opened and at some point, we’re going to elect another Dubya. Or a Hillary We-came-We-saw-He-died Clinton.
What I’m saying here is if we decide to oppose Moscow, and we should, then do it with the realization that this comes with the implication we accept that this entails whatever comes after. Yes, I’m talking a nuclear response.
But even aside from a non-inevitable nuclear exchange, the political and human costs of faiure here should be apparent. I can’t describe them here because there are no words to express endless, unremitting misery well enough. I’m not Dante.
I am, however, astute enough to have seen this possibility growing since the first week of April, 2011.
Since 1991, the world had the chance to evolve more politically inclusive and humane forms in which both people and nations were more or less free to choose their courses as they saw fit, but we all underestimated the effects of the thawing of local conflicts long frozen and the extent which colonization and Cold War politics robbed nations of their own histories and how batshit-crazy nationalism could be fired up with references to ancient moments like Serbian leaders harkening back to an event which took place in 1329. Any thinking person should now know better and in the future, if we have one, these impulses should be taken into account and vigorously dealt with. I‘m not talking of blindly resorting to arms here, rest assured.
This is the prize. The alternatives are too horrible to contemplate and so this is a fight worth taking on. I’m no patriot. I don’t give a shit about “American Leadership” in the world. I don’t give a tinker’s damn about being able to brag about Amerikan power and our capacity to kick anyone’s ass. I am thankful at the moment, however, that we spent an obscene amount of money on our military. I’m reasonably sure we’re going to have to keep on spending at these levels if not increase it. And if anyone objects, I point out that having to fight numerous small wars for the next century is hardly less costly—in all senses. Western Europe is slow getting off the dime and dealing with issues other than increasing military spending. Germany’s military procurement is, for example, a total mess. They can’t even buy the helmets for their airborne troops which we’ve been using successfully for two years. The French . . . Macron’s a fool who has absolutely no conception of the misery he will cause unless Ukraine’s victory comes quickly and decisively. The French apparently believe that their stature in the world matters more than the hellish scenarios I forsee if he gets his way.
Because I don’t see anyway out of this. Putin has made up his mind and reverted to Stalinist measures to maintain his position and he has had it with all the liberal democracies of the west. Putin is all in. Moscow’s course is beyond our capacity to alter. We might bleed Russia dry in Ukraine to remove his capacity to launch another conventional war, but I refuse to put the Ukrainians through that meat grinder even if the ongoing risk of a nuclear exchange is somehow attenuated. Ukrainians are, at present, fighting our war for us and deserve all of our respect, gratitude and support.
Because these are the stakes: if Putin isn’t beaten decisively, then great power competition heats up and nuclear blackmail both become a norm we, as well as your children and theirs, have to somehow live with. Nobody should be willing to accept this.
As I say, Biden’s doing well so far, but he shouldn’t balk now at increasing military, infrasructure and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. In the long run, that’ll pay off for us, even in the negative way of preventing us from having to spend quite so much—or likely even more—later. I assume military industries are gearing up to increase production. Washington should be quietly getting industry on a war footing right now. Sig Sauer, True Velocity and Vortex should be going all out to get the new M5 battle rifle system into max production and Congress (especially Texas, New Hampshire and Wisconsin) should be on board and seeing to it this happens ASAP. The goal in this is deterence, and in case that fails, as I think it might, shortening the following conflict. To that end, if Kyiv needs tanks, then we should give them. If they ask for F-16s, ditto. ATACMS? Yes.
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It’s okay to be afraid I’m afraid. I have never felt so afraid in my entire life. However the prospect of war with Moscow now pales in comparison to the multigenerational perils, including ongoing nuclear blackmail we face if we don’t deal Putin a decisive blow now. His is a world nobody with the least bit of common sense and humanity would want to live in. As I said before, I am no longer a democrat (though I did pay for the lifretime membership here, so I do get to post this), but I have voted early and selected Democrats right down the line even though I know for a fact that democrats are stupid when it comes to foreign policy, because the GOP has an indecent isolationist streak without regard to the havoc, even in their own states and districts, such choice would inevitably result in. American firsters are nothing less than little Putin-wannabes.
Don’t screw this up, Biden. And everyone else needs to shift gears a bit. The world changed last February, and even the most optimistic outcomes I can game out tell me it will take decades to sort out. There’s no going back to the good old days either. Those days are done and gone. Putin has already succeeded is altering the course of human events and there’s nothing we can do about that at this point. We can, however, salvage something out of this if we keep our nerve. That’s something you are all going to have to wrap your heads around too.
Provided we know what to fight for and when to mediate. We’ve made too many mistakes in the past. For the GOP, that would be Iraq and for Democrats, Libya and Syria. We’re going to have to learn to live with some dictaors and be able to distinquish when we can and when we can’t. And the goal really needs to highlight development and yes, liberal democracy. Regardless of what we perceive to be in our national interests, Israel’s demands or what Goldman Sach’s offices in Brazil or Kmart’s in Pakistan lobby for.
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If I have touched on something already noted in diaries with the Ukraine tag here, my apologies. And if I may add, well done there. That would represent a leap of magnitude from the level of discourse when I was last here eleven years ago. I haven’t looked to be honest. I hope so. I don’t know what’s going to happen tonight, but two things: I hope democrats hold on and I know progressives are going to need to step up their game on foreign policy. I’m sorry, but it’s part of the job description and the Left sucks at it. The Progressive Caucus’ letter over the summer is proof enough. Be certain, there’s nobody on the Left who’s more Left than I, but I have bigger fish to fry right now, and in time, it will become more and more apprent to everyone that we all have too.
And time is fleeting. A long drawn out war in Ukraine only increases the probability that at some point, western leaders come to the conclusion that enough is enough and decide a somewhat more direct intervention, such as posting NATO troops in Ukraine along the border with Belarus in order to free up Ukrainians to fight (for us) in the east becomes necessary. Russia’s deployment of 60,000 troops to Belarus would seem a suitable pretext, though I feel they are there to keep Lukashenko from being overthrown is just as likely. These aims are not mutually exclusive, please note.
At any rate, this is going to be a long haul and we need to be ready for it. The stakes couldn’t be higher.
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In response to a comment noting how the GOP has, an bit seemed to place their spending above, well the well-being of the world for the next hundred years, I replied:
“Well, paint them a bunch of appeasing Neville Chamberlins. That’ll cut the legs out of them. Point out the fact that a hundred years of small wars we’ll have to fight because Moscow and Beijing find out that nuclear brinkmanship seems to work (as far as some in the GOP is concerned anyways) will be far more costly.
sarcasm Remind them that living the next hundred years under the constant threat of nuclear blackmail is a sure way to safeguard the futures of their children and grandchildren. Yeah. That’s the way to Make America Great Again, alright.\sarcasm
I didn’t want to write this. I didn’t want to ever come back here. I did so because I hope people figure out that we on the left haven’t totally got our heads up our asses, even though the Progressive Caucus seems bent on proving otherwise. (What they should have done is come out with a statement outlining what I have said here.) And all this needs to be said. And said by somebody from the left wing. They paint a picture of confusion. Libya should have been mediated. Moscow and Beijing should have been invited to help with that—or else we shouldn’t have intervened and should have prevented Sarkozy from doing so on his own hook. The Libya thing originated with Sarkozy, if you recall. Cameron decided to go along with it, because he’s a Tory fool who couldn’t see past his nose, and then Clinton and lastly Obama.
I’m just a sporting amateur. I have no professional credentials at all but I could see this coming in Ukraine in the week following the NYT story of 31 March, 2011 that the CIA was on the ground in Libya, picking targets and meeting rebels. I’m just an amateur and I could game this out in 2011. What are their excuses?
Thanks for chiming in. Good to see you again too. My fear is that this post will gain little traction. My hope is that everybody sorta gets what I’m saying regardless, even if they can’t quite express it in a politically pointed way. Yet. I can help with that.
I tweeted this post because I do know that there are reps and staffers on the Hill who have followed me on Twitter for a long time and I hope it’ll reach enough of them to make a difference.”
