Finally Banned by Redstate

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Friday December 14, 2007 · 11:47 AM PST

2007/12/14 · 11:47

After three-plus years of (irregular) posting there as a "guest liberal", I finally got banned for posting the following comment:

stillnotking

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Thursday December 13, 2007 · 10:59 AM PST

2007/12/13 · 10:59

I am done:

In the face of stiff opposition from powerful fellow Democrats, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) has abandoned a proposal she supported less than 24 hours ago to eliminate lawmakers’ earmarks from the omnibus spending package.

stillnotking

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Wednesday December 12, 2007 · 12:11 PM PST

2007/12/12 · 12:11

Senator Fred Thompson has fallen short of the 500 signatures required to be on the ballot for Delaware's Feb. 5 Republican primary.

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Thursday December 06, 2007 · 8:40 AM PST

2007/12/06 · 08:40

Guess what almost every Democrat (and all but two Republicans) in the House just voted for:

The U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday overwhelmingly approved a bill saying that anyone offering an open Wi-Fi connection to the public must report illegal images including "obscene" cartoons and drawings--or face fines of up to $300,000.

That broad definition would cover individuals, coffee shops, libraries, hotels, and even some government agencies that provide Wi-Fi. It also sweeps in social-networking sites, domain name registrars, Internet service providers, and e-mail service providers such as Hotmail and Gmail, and it may require that the complete contents of the user's account be retained for subsequent police inspection.

stillnotking

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Monday November 06, 2006 · 2:57 PM PST

2006/11/06 · 14:57

The contract for the GOP holding the Senate is all over the map today but has been down as much as 5 points. I don't see any new polling to suggest the race has changed since yesterday. Anybody know what is driving this?

http://www.tradesports.com/...

Also, if anyone is on TS and is looking for good value, the GOP.HOUSE.2006 contract is still trading around 20-21, which is (to my eye) ridiculously inflated. I'd be surprised if they have even a 5% chance to hold the House tomorrow, given that they'd have to practically run the field in tossups.

Democrats' Moral Compass

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Friday November 05, 2004 · 12:00 PM PST

2004/11/05 · 12:00

Please read this whole diary before you jump to conclusions.

First: we need to clearly recognize that the 2004 elections were a major blow to the Democratic party. When you lose a presidential election to a very unpopular incumbent, lose seats in the Senate and lose seats in the House, you are doing something wrong on the national level. Let's please kill the idea that this was just a bump in the road to a bluer America. It was a painful setback.

So what have the Democrats been doing wrong? Read More

Bush picks up major endorsement

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Wednesday October 27, 2004 · 11:43 AM PDT

2004/10/27 · 11:43

LOS ANGELES (AP): George W. Bush, who has been falling behind in the newspaper-endorsement race, picked up a surprise victory today with the endorsement of Punch Line, a trade journal for comedians, satirists and stand-up comics.

Eschewing the tepid tone of many of Bush's endorsements, the publication's board heaped praise on the President. "This man may very well be the funniest thing ever to happen to America. `George W. Bush, Leader of the Free World.' You can't even say it without laughing." Bush has provided a bonanza of material for comics, says the board, pointing to his dodging of the Vietnam-era draft, coke sniffing, choice of reading material, and frequent bloopers. The high point of his tenure so far, according to the editors, was his now-famous reference to gynecologists "practicing their love" on women. The low point? Passing the 1,000th KIA in Iraq. "Dead soldier jokes don't play well, and we hope President Bush will learn from this and make every effort to keep such reports from dominating the news cycle in future." Read More

Oregon field report

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Sunday October 24, 2004 · 3:15 PM PDT

2004/10/24 · 15:15

Spent a few more hours this morning doing GOTV calls in Washington County (suburbs of Portland). For those who don't know, Oregon has vote-by-mail which essentially means that all Oregon ballots work like absentee ballots in other states. It's useful because the campaigns can track who has already voted. We got our ballots last week.

From the talk among the Democratic campaign staff, Washington County is showing 20% more ballots being returned over this time last year. Even more significant is Multnomah County (metro Portland), which is showing almost double the number of ballots! Multnomah County went to Gore by almost 80% in 2000, it's a very liberal area.

It also looks like the Republicans have given up on Oregon. Their advertising is being pulled and there are no more Bush/Cheney campaign visits planned.

Seven more electoral votes for the next President of the United States, John F. Kerry!

Deconstructing the Lynne Cheney issue

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Thursday October 14, 2004 · 10:44 AM PDT

2004/10/14 · 10:44

Let me follow the reasoning here:

Apparently, a significant bloc of Republican voters are so bigoted that they will not vote for a candidate with a gay family member. Therefore, the opposition party should never mention the existence of Republican candidates' gay family members, because it "unfairly" alienates that bloc.

There are many things wrong with that argument, but the obvious question would be: are you really that worried about the bigot vote? It seems to me that the moral wrong here is on the part of those who automatically exclude gays. Another point: what about the "anti-bigot" bloc of (presumably) mostly gay voters? Wouldn't Cheney's having a gay family member make them feel more comfortable about voting for the Republican ticket, by making it appear less likely that Cheney himself is a bigot?

Then, of course, we could point out the utter hypocrisy of Bush supporters crying foul over this matter. Surely they are aware that Bush and Rove started a whisper campaign against Ann Richards, who Bush defeated in the Texas gubernatorial race, on the basis that she was too "soft" on homosexuals and had appointed some to government positions.

Kerry's Foreign Policy Stance Already Working

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Tuesday October 12, 2004 · 5:45 PM PDT

2004/10/12 · 17:45

World leaders will be much more inclined to help the U.S. when Bush is gone.

From The Financial Times:

Germany might deploy troops in Iraq if conditions there change, Peter Struck, the German defence minister, indicated on Tuesday in a gesture that appears to provide backing for John Kerry, the US Democratic presidential challenger.

In an interview with the Financial Times, Mr Struck departed from his government's resolve not to send troops to Iraq under any circumstances, saying: "At present I rule out the deployment of German troops in Iraq. In general, however, there is no one who can predict developments in Iraq in such a way that he could make a such a binding statement [about the future]."

Mr Struck also welcomed Mr Kerry's proposal that he would convene an international conference on Iraq including countries that opposed the war if he were to win next month's election.

Germany would certainly attend, Mr Struck said. "This is a very sensible proposal. The situation in Iraq can only be cleared up when all those involved sit together at one table. Germany has taken on responsibilities in Iraq, including financial ones; this would naturally justify our involvement in such a conference."

Jobs, and tax cuts for the rich

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Monday October 11, 2004 · 10:00 AM PDT

2004/10/11 · 10:00

The theme that I hope to God Kerry uses in the coming debate:

"Mr. President, your theory was that a massive tax cuts for the wealthiest 1% of Americans would create millions of jobs. Now, more than three years after your cuts were enacted, the economy is creating jobs at less than two-thirds of the rate economists predicted for the recovery. There are more than 800,000 fewer jobs in this country than there were at the time you took office.

During the Clinton years, when tax rates on the wealthy were much higher, we enjoyed a booming economy and stock market coupled with extremely low unemployment.

Do you see any disconnect between theory and reality? Is it possible there is something wrong with the idea that tax cuts for billionaires will mysteriously and magically benefit the working-class people of Michigan, Ohio, and Arizona?

The American economy created jobs during World War II. It created jobs during Vietnam and Korea. It created jobs during the presidency of Franklin Roosevelt, which encompassed the depression of the 1930s, the worst in our history. The only presidency in the last 70 years of our history that has yielded a net loss of jobs has been yours. And so far, your only response to this dismal record has been to promise more of the same. The American people deserve better from their leadership. They deserve a leader that understands that the economy is driven by the middle class, not by the likes of Ken Lay."

Correlation does not imply causality

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Tuesday October 05, 2004 · 1:17 PM PDT

2004/10/05 · 13:17

Just a quick one, but something that really needs to be mentioned about statistics.

Every election cycle, we see all kinds of spurious "predictors" of the race. Here are a few recent examples:

The loser of the first debate wins the election.
The candidate who leads in the polls on Labor Day wins the election.
Sitting Senators rarely win presidential races.
The taller candidate usually wins.

And so on, and so on. The trouble with all of these is they are not predictive. Given the thousands of factors that are evaluated (obsessively) in every presidential race, it is a given that some patterns will emerge. However, unless the pattern has some causative relationship to the race, it's meaningless. Otherwise, the pattern is just as likely to be broken as upheld in the next race. Any number of patterns may be apparent in the rear view mirror, but have no predictive value whatsoever.

This kind of tea-leaf reading is totally irrelevant to the race. Don't let it get you down, and don't let it get your hopes up. The only thing that matters is what the American people think of each candidate on Nov. 2.

Keep on fighting!

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Finally Banned by Redstate

I am done

Fred Thompson Fails to Qualify For DE Ballot

The SAFE Act - What Were They Thinking?

Tradesports - GOP.SEN.2006 down today

Democrats' Moral Compass

Bush picks up major endorsement

Oregon field report

Deconstructing the Lynne Cheney issue

Kerry's Foreign Policy Stance Already Working

Jobs, and tax cuts for the rich

Correlation does not imply causality