January 1, 2030: Welcome to a new, exciting, crazy decade. If the last decade is any indication, it will be marked by incredible, even stunning developments, most of them for the better. We are living longer and healthier (and happier), and former New York state prisoner 4325AZ124 (AKA Donald Trump) is just a faded memory. Here are some of the biggest developments, by category. I will start out with politics and take a look at other categories (technology/science and health/culture) in subsequent posts.
I. Politics
2020 Election: Everybody Loves Oprah (Especially Liz)
On January 14, 2020, Oprah Winfrey made her most consequential endorsement since 2008. She picked Elizabeth Warren. Warren, who had been floundering of late, began to turn things around almost immediately. Her Iowa and new Hampshire polls surged, and Oprah kept her promise to campaign door to door with the Senator in both states as well as in South Carolina. The result, Warren won Iowa by 5 points, New Hampshire by 7, and eked out wins in both Nevada (by 5 points over Sanders) and Surprise, surprise, South Carolina (by 1 point over Biden). After that, it was off to the races. Warren won most of the remaining states, and eventually a strong plurality (37%) of delegates and the popular vote before being crowned the Democratic Party’s 2020 nominee in Milwaukee. She selected none other than former Georgia House leader and almost governor Stacey Abrams as her running mate. The campaign began in earnest.
Meanwhile, in Trumpland, the Donald survived impeachment easily as only one Republican (Mitt Romney) voted to convict. (Susan Collins was “very concerned” but in the end towed the GOP line). Meanwhile, the Supreme Court ruled in June that Trump had to provide his tax returns, revealing (as expected) his close connection to Russian companies and oligarchs, and that he wasn’t nearly as rich as he liked to claim. After talking of dumping Mike Pence for Nicki Haley, the Clown in Chief stuck with his VP.
Meanwhile, the economy sagged, as a recession commenced in the summer of 2020. By October unemployment was back over 5% again. Trump refused to debate Warren at first, but finally agreed to go along with the last debate. He tried his usual “Pochahontas” bit, but it had clearly worn thin long ago. And with the economy rapidly sinking, and more terrible revelations almost daily, Trump approval dipped into the low 30’s. Election day saw a 9 point Warren win (with 367 electoral votes, including Ohio, Florida and Georgia), as the Democrats picked up 11 House seats, and, more importantly, 7 senate seats (Arizona, Colorado, Maine, Iowa, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas and one Georgia seat, while losing Alabama). Change was in the air.
2024: Stacey’s Turn
To the surprise of almost everyone, President Warren announced on October 23, 2023 that she would not seek reelection, turning over the reins to her popular Vice-President, Stacey Abrams. It had been a successful period for Warren. The 2020-2021 recession proved to be relatively short, and after reaching a high of 6.2%, unemployment was back under 4% before the 2022 midterms, which were comparatively successful for the incumbent president’s party (only 7 House seats lossed, and a net one seat Senate pickup, as Democratic wins in both Pennsylvania (Tom Wolf) and Florida (Andrew Gillum) made up for the surprise loss of Maryland, as Governor Larry Hogan became the first Republican Senator in decades.
As expected, Stacey Abrams cruised to the Democratic nomination without a serious challenge, except for Fox news contributor Tulsi Gabbard, who could simply not give up. Meanwhile, the Republican nomination was a total mess. Senator Mitt Romney ran, hoping to cash in on his conviction vote, especially since former President Trump had a 28% favorable rating with the general public, which fell below 25% after his conviction in New York court on tax and racketeering charges in September 2023 (he would go on to be sentenced to 11 years in prison, but would be out by 2029 after just over 5 years served). On the other hand, Trump was still popular in the party, and had spawned a Trump-a-like successor, Kid Rock. Several other candidates were in the running, including Nicki Haley (this was inevitable), Senator Tom Cotton, and even (drumroll please), Rudy Giuliani, who had somehow avoided conviction in February 2021 on several campaign finance violations stemming from his 12 count indictment on May 4, 2020. In the end, the Republican electorate rejected Rock and went with Haley, who picked Cotton as her running mate. The campaign centered around Haley’s previous support for Trump (which she now called “my mistake”), which in turn angered Trump supporters. Abrams picked Illinois Senator Tammy Duckworth as her Vice-President, and the election wasn’t even close. In a good economy, with no foreign wars and no scandals (Warren had kept to her vow of “total transparency”), enough of the country was willing to give the administration another chance. Abrams won by 5 points, scoring just over 300 electoral votes. She lost Wisconsin, but made up for it with wins in Georgia and Arizona.
2028: One More for the Road
Things had changed by the last election of the decade. The strong economy of 2022-2025 hit a major speed bump in 2026, leading to a recession and significant losses in Congress. The Democrats lost the Senate again, but were able to hold onto the House, however barely. Fortunately, the team of Warren/Abrams had already picked 3 justices as retirements of Ginsburg, Thomas and Alito led to three progressive justices and a 6-3 liberal majority. Abrams remained personally popular, and had avoided scandal, but the economy threatened to drag her down. However, Republicans were divided again, leading to a contested convention where somehow Mitt Romney emerged victorious. Yet that wasn’t the end of it. Kid Rock mounted a third party bid, picking none other as his Vice President than incarcerated “hero” Donald J. Trump. The Republicans having fractured, Abrams waltzed to victory despite winning only 44% of the vote, as Romney took 30% and Rock/Trump garnered 25%. Electorally, the split within the Republican Party electorate allowed Abrams to pick up Texas, and receive over 340 electoral votes, while Rock/Trump took 13 states (including both Michigan and Wisconsin) and Romney, in an utter defeat, won only 12 states and finished third in the Electoral College.
And so, we have a decade of enormous political change. Meanwhile, the movement to lower the voting age to 16 had slowly begun to pick up steam, as 25 cities (including both New York and Chicago) had allowed teens to vote in local elections. outside the United States, change came faster, as the UK lowered its voting age to 16 after Labour (finally) took control again in late 2024, followed by Canada (2025), Australia (2026), Germany (2028) and France (2029).
What a decade for politics!
