Which Poll Aggregator Performed Best? The Answer: 538.

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Thursday November 08, 2012 · 9:19 AM PST

2012/11/08 · 09:19

The election is over, and the big winners were Democrats - and pollsters. Despite endless Republican hyperventilation over the accuracy and reliability of state polls, those polls proved to be extremely accurate in projecting the outcome of the presidential election.

Of course, people who had actually done the math knew that a relentless focus on aggregating state polls was the best way to project the outcome. This year we saw several different attempts to aggregate polls. Nate Silver's 538 is, of course, the best-known of all the aggregators, but was his formula the most accurate, in light of this year's actual results?

The answer is yes. According to my calculations, 538 remains the gold standard for presidential poll aggregation. Below the orange squiggle, I will detail how I came to this conclusion.

tractarian

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Wednesday September 03, 2008 · 7:31 PM PDT

2008/09/03 · 19:31

Thanks to the recent Obama radio ad campaign, people should be getting the picture that the McCain/Palin ticket is, shall we say, rather extreme on the issue of abortion.

Still, it seems some need a refresher course.

tractarian

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Friday October 29, 2004 · 6:08 PM PDT

2004/10/29 · 18:08

I know there's been an overload of OBL diaries, but I haven't seen the transcript posted yet. Here are excerpts courtesy of NY Times, and some analysis:

O American people, I am speaking to tell you about the ideal way to avoid another Manhattan, about war and its causes and results.

(Continued below the fold) Read More

Debate #1: A Devastating Loss for Bush

tractarian

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Friday October 01, 2004 · 8:57 PM PDT

2004/10/01 · 20:57

There's no other way to spin it. With 60 million members of a volatile and fickle electorate watching, Bush looked like a lightweight. This is Reagan-Carter all over again: the incumbent, running a campaign based solely on building fear of change, proves himself that change is needed.

Last night's debate was THE moment that Iowans and New Hampshirites had in mind 8 months ago when they picked this man to go up against Bush. The gravitas. The seriousness. The authority on foreign affairs. The Lincoln look. The visual and intellectual matchup with Bush. It's the electability, stupid.

No, Kerry wasn't perfect. Far from it. I wish he would have hit Bush harder on neglecting homeland security, and I wish he would have talked less about courting allies and the UN (if I were JK's manager, rule #1 would be Don't say the word France!).

Here are a few themes I would like to see Kerry hit in the remaining debates: Read More

Yet another TV ad idea

tractarian

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Friday September 24, 2004 · 10:33 PM PDT

2004/09/24 · 22:33

Going over the Commission on Presidential Debates website (following the suggestion of DeanDemocrat), I stumbled upon an idea for a last-week DNC TV spot, targeting independents and swing voters.

It's rather obvious actually, so apologies if it's already been done. Here goes below the fold.... Read More

Need proof Kerry is surging?

tractarian

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Thursday September 23, 2004 · 5:52 PM PDT

2004/09/23 · 17:52

Well here it is. It was bound to come. Ashcroft's Department of Fear has announced that they are stepping up counterterrorism efforts, according to the AP.

No, there's no new threat information, nothing indicating a place, time or method of attack. But still...

""We remain concerned that al-Qaida continues to demonstrate its intent and desire to carry out an attack that will effect the democratic process," Homeland Security Department spokesman Brian Roehrkasse said.

tractarian

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Friday August 06, 2004 · 8:01 PM PDT

2004/08/06 · 20:01

3rd-Generation Yalie Bush Opposes Legacies

Yet another flip-flop from our chimp-in-chief. First this "C" student accepts admission to Yale, then he wants to deny any other under-achieving over-privileged sons from having the same opportunity.

President Bush, who followed his father and grandfather to Yale University despite an undistinguished academic record, said Friday that colleges should get rid of "legacy" admission preferences that favor the sons and daughters of alumni.

tractarian

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Sunday July 11, 2004 · 1:14 PM PDT

2004/07/11 · 13:14

No, not that Cheney...

Link Read More

Friedman: stranger and stranger...

tractarian

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Sunday March 28, 2004 · 12:03 AM PST

2004/03/28 · 00:03

Tom Friedman, in his latest rumination on the NY Times editorial page, admits to not having listened to one second of the 9/11 Commission hearings this week. He didn't read the transcripts. He didn't even read any story about the hearings.

Why?

It's because I made up my mind about that event a long time ago: It was not a failure of intelligence, it was a failure of imagination. We could have had perfect intelligence on all the key pieces of 9/11, but the fact is we lacked -- for the very best of reasons -- people with evil enough imaginations to put those pieces together and realize that 19 young men were going to hijack four airplanes for suicide attacks against our national symbols and kill as many innocent civilians as they could, for no stated reason at all.

tractarian

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Saturday March 27, 2004 · 11:46 AM PST

2004/03/27 · 11:46

Sen. Frist: "There is not a single public record of Mr. Clarke making any objection whatsoever in the period leading up to or following the 9/11 attacks. . . . If Mr. Clarke held his tongue because he was 'loyal,' then shame on him for putting politics above principle. But if he has manufactured these charges for profit and political gain, he is a shame to this government."

Doesn't Senator Frist get it? Clarke simply couldn't speak out against Administration policy prior to resigning his post at the NSC. Why?

Ask Paul O'Neill.

Ask Lawrence Lindsey.

Ask General Eric Shinseki.

Ask Richard Foster (the Medicare actuary).

What happens if you speak out against your boss, and your boss happens to be George W. Bush? You get fired.

Powell Flip-Flop

tractarian

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Wednesday March 24, 2004 · 6:50 PM PST

2004/03/24 · 18:50

Colin Powell, March 26, 2003:

Well, one, we didn't put together just the coalition of the willing. A coalition is always a coalition of the willing. And this particular coalition of the willing now has 47 nations; 47 nations are openly members of the coalition, and have asked to be identified with this effort. And there are many other nations that for a variety of reasons don't want to be publicly identified, but are also a part of the coalition of the willing.

Colin Powell, March 16, 2004:

On Sunday, Powell called on Kerry to name the foreign leaders the senator has claimed want him as the next president. "If he can't list names," the secretary told Fox News, "then perhaps he should find something else to talk about."

Today's Bush Lie

tractarian

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Thursday March 11, 2004 · 3:20 AM PST

2004/03/11 · 03:20

The Bush campaign yesterday touted a 1995 bill Kerry sponsored to trim intelligence spending by $1.5 billion over five years. Bush himself said at one fundraiser yesterday: "Once again, Senator Kerry is trying to have it both ways. He's for good intelligence, yet he was willing to gut the intelligence services"

If this is the best Bush has got to offer, after all the research being done into Kerry's record, he's in trouble. It barely took a day for the responsible media to swat away this softball.

Turns out that Kerry's bill closely resembled a bipartisan bill that did pass. Kerry's bill did seek to cut spending - across the board - and that would have included the 1% decrease of $1.5 billion in the intelligence community's estimated 5-year budget of $84 billion.

Well, someone's gotta try to stand up to wasteful spending in Washington, because the Repubs haven't managed to do so in almost 10 years of Congressional control. Read More

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Which Poll Aggregator Performed Best? The Answer: 538.

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OBL thanks Bush for "My Pet Goat"

Debate #1: A Devastating Loss for Bush

Yet another TV ad idea

Need proof Kerry is surging?

The Latest Bush Flip-Flop

Cheney voices opposition to FMA

Friedman: stranger and stranger...

Frist just doesn't get it

Powell Flip-Flop

Today's Bush Lie