A front-page post on myDD today suggested that favorability ratings were pretty useless in determining the winner of this month's Senate elections.
In a one-off comment, I suggested that once factoring the PVI of a state into the equation, much better results emerge, which come very close to nailing the election results in most cases.
After I made that post, I did an analysis of the 10 widely watched Senate races with incumbents (MI, MO, MT, NJ, NY, OH, PA, RI, VA, and WA), and came up with a pretty good and sane methodology for working favorability ratings into election results.
The results are on the flip.
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