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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 9/20 (727 comments)

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  •  the state may not be in play (19+ / 0-)

    but Obama will not lose by 21 points.

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 06:57:02 AM PDT

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    •  case in point: it's InsiderAdvantage (9+ / 0-)

      in addition to being a Republican firm, they just suck.

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 06:57:59 AM PDT

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    •  Oh, of course not. He'll win by 10ish. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone

      But there are a lot of people who think Georgia is in play this time. It isn't.

      •  Who thinks Georgia is still in play? (8+ / 0-)

        Who are these "a lot of people"?

        Political Director, Daily Kos

        by David Nir on Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 07:03:37 AM PDT

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        •  Quite a lot of commenters on DKE, Daily Kos, (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

          and other blogs believe that demographic trends mean GA will be competitive this election.

          •  Heh (7+ / 0-)

            Is that so? I'll be curious to see if a single commenter makes anything more than a devil's advocate or purely academic argument in favor of this position in this thread.

            Political Director, Daily Kos

            by David Nir on Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 07:08:40 AM PDT

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            •  I --was-- one of them, earlier this year (6+ / 0-)

              My assumption was that the D share of the white vote in places like GA would go up, after people discovered that the republic was still here after 4 years with a President who happens to be African American.

              •  You were definitely not alone. (6+ / 0-)

                Nor was the logic behind thinking Georgia might be competive necessarily poor.  It was a 5-point race even though Obama pulled his advertising for a good while.  I never thought it would be competitive this cycle, but I'm more of a "follow the money" guy.

                White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

                by spiderdem on Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 07:28:08 AM PDT

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                •  That's more or less where I am at. (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  lordpet8, MichaelNY

                  As I said to GradyDem, a margin of ten points or so sounds fine. But would it really surprise anyone to see to it be narrower, especially if things keep going the way they are going? Getting to a win might be too much this time, even in the most favorable end circumstances, but if Romney continues to implode, four or five points wouldn't surprise me.

                  Like you, I am mostly a follow the money guy, but as you indicated the other day, it's entirely possible that OFA saw a strong base but decided the last few percent would be a stretch and that it was easier and safer to get to 270 through a more traditional route.

                  "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                  by bjssp on Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 08:57:50 AM PDT

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            •  There are some people here (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike, tietack, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

              who are pretty rosy on Obama expanding the map.  I've seen more about AZ, MO, IN, MT, ND, and SD than about GA, but I'm pretty darn sure GA and even SC have been in the mix at times too.

              White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

              by spiderdem on Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 07:24:20 AM PDT

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              •  Light red states (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                You listed IN plus all the 2008 light red states.  All states where McCain won by less than 10%.  

                The Obama campaign is definitely not in a place where the possibility of flipping those states is "rosy" right now.  But, with Romney flailing at least right now and Obama keeping on pounding him, maybe flipping could be possible.

                •  If not flipping, perhaps (4+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  James Allen, aamail6, lordpet8, MichaelNY

                  just getting close. Not that that helps get to 270, but if you think that Obama getting to 47 percent in Arizona and Indiana or 44 percent in Montana and North Dakota (or is that 40 percent, lol) helps our Senate candidates, it'd be nice to see.

                  "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                  by bjssp on Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 08:59:42 AM PDT

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            •  Fair enough (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              HoosierD42, MichaelNY

              Fair enough.  But the process of flipping a state has to start somewhere.  IN had always been looking deep red.  If people just assumed that, no one would've ever made the work to flip IN.

            •  Rising EVs with greater vote share gets GA (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              In another thread someone posted a handy rule of thumb that each one point increase in the popular vote margin gains roughly another 20 EVs over the 270 needed to win.

              Playing with that concept, a smashing 54-43 tsunami wave repudiating the crazies gets 410 EVs, and so I added GA to Obama's potential sweep.

              But you are correct, David: Not I, not anyone, should be seriously expecting us to carry GA -- nor IN, MO, MT, or AZ. A fun day dream.

              I have greatest respect for Team Obama in how they run their campaigns. They know what they are doing. And a huge part of their success is putting in place a field operation months in advance. Then that awesome ground game delivers the marginal states their way. They do not try to do it by carpetbombing the opponent with a last minute megadrop of spending on TV ads. And you just can't parachute in a winning ground game. Not happening.

              Team Obama has NOT put anyone on the ground in IN or MO, unlike 2008 -- much less put even one warm body in GA. (With the Rmoney campaign now in some disarray, they may regret not having gone into one or two more states. But when they made their strategic decisions almost a year ago, they picked targets where they thought they could hit the mark with the resources they expected to have for the job.)

              I do think we have a good shot at NC, because Obama is heavy on the ground there. If they figured they could win it they can probably win it. But NC is as deep into Dixie as we gonna get this year.

              •  There's some basic presence in a few of those (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Woody, MichaelNY

                states, but nothing like there is on Ohio or Virginia.

                At the same time, there are efforts to mobilize voters, even if they are not backed up in the same way those efforts in legitimate battleground states are supported. This might not mean they will flip, but it can't hurt? And consider that Romney's side seems to be doing little to nothing in these states.

                The question for a state like Georgia is how high do you think we can go with whites. If you think 23 percent is a baseline, which it could be since that's what the exit polls said for 2004 and 2008, and that non-whites will be at least motivated as they were in 2008, then a five-point margin isn't out of the question. After that, though, it gets harder, for a bunch of reasons.

                "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                by bjssp on Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 09:33:39 AM PDT

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            •  spiderdem & Grady are right, there are a few... (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Inoljt, MichaelNY

              ...people here who insist on believing all the states that were legitimately in play last time must be in play this time, plus Arizona which of course wasn't in play only because it was McCain's home state (and in fact Obama would've beaten anyone else there that year).  There are a few people who have a hard time absorbing that Obama will do worse this time than last time, translating to some tossups last time being certain losses this time.  This applies to Montana, Missouri, Indiana and sorta/kinda Georgia which wasn't really a tossup but was as close as a state can be without being a tossup.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 11:30:37 AM PDT

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              •  You can believe that states might end up (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                closer or even in our column if a few things happen while still acknowledging the fight is in eight main states.

                "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                by bjssp on Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 12:24:24 PM PDT

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          •  Not competitive this time around (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            lordpet8, MichaelNY

            but maybe next time, or in 2020.  Certainly before Texas gets competitive.

          •  I argued it might be worth a bit of an attempt (0+ / 0-)

            But I never argued it was a swing state.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 06:32:50 PM PDT

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        •  possible (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Woody, MichaelNY

          If Obama is able to solidify his support in all his 2008 wins minus IN and NE-02, he could then move on to getting back those two places as well, and he could make states like AZ and GA in play.  But again, he has to make his support in his 2008 states solid yet.  Two weeks ago, I wasn't expecting that at all.  But now that we've had the foreign policy gaffe and the 47% gaffe, I think it might be possible.

      •  I assume you mean me, among a few others. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I'm still trying to figure out what I think will happen in certain states in November--because, you know, my predictions are THAT important.

        Do I think the state is in play? No. Do I think it could see a late push, if OFA feels confident? Yes. Do I think this is guaranteed? Far from it. But do I think it's looking more likely than it has at any point in this campaign? Yes. And even if said push doesn't happen, would a general shift push him towards 50 percent, even if it doesn't get him exactly there? Absolutely!

        A margin of ten points or so sounds reasonable, but I think it's more likely that it's narrower than that than it is bigger.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 08:50:09 AM PDT

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