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View Diary: US Government Suspends Arctic Scientist (261 comments)

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  •  You don't address the issue (15+ / 0-)

    Did he conduct scientific misconduct?

    On issues of science I prefer to leave things to the scientists and the scientific method.

    The polar bear certainly falls within the realm of conflicting scientific opinion. The IUCN whom many to be the authoritative word on all things species lists the bear as threatened, not endangered despite the obvious long term threat to habitat.

    If the biologist has in any way fixed the numbers of fudged in other ways to make the bear appear more threatened than it is then of course he should lose his postion and his job.

    As a statement of promise when this administration took over they stated they would base scientific findings on science. So far they've done as much as possible every time. I'd wait and see. The last paragraph of your link is the one worth consideration.

    From the IUCN,

    While all bear species have shown adaptability in coping with their surroundings and environment, polar bears are highly specialized for life in the Arctic marine environment. Polar bears exhibit low reproductive rates with long generational spans. These factors make facultative adaptation by polar bears to significantly reduced ice coverage scenarios unlikely. Polar bears did adapt to warmer climate periods of the past. Due to their long generation time and the current greater speed of global warming, it seems unlikely that polar bear will be able to adapt to the current warming trend in the Arctic. If climatic trends continue polar bears may become extirpated from most of their range within 100 years.

    There is little doubt that polar bears will have a lesser AOO, EOO and habitat quality in the future. However, no direct relation exists between these measures and the abundance of polar bears. While some have speculated that polar bears might become extinct within 100 years from now, which would indicate a population decrease of >50% in 45 years based on a precautionary approach due to data uncertainty. A more realistic evaluation of the risk involved in the assessment makes it fair to suspect population reduction of >30%.

    Other population stress factors that may also operate to impact recruitment or survival include toxic contaminants, shipping, recreational viewing, oil and gas exploration and development. In addition to this comes a potential risk of over-harvest due to increased quotas, excessive quotas or no quotas in Canada and Greenland and poaching in Russia.

    This assessment was reviewed by all the participants at the 14th Working Meeting of the IUCN SSC Polar Bear Specialist Group held in Seattle, Washington, USA during June 20-24, 2005.

    "Don't fall or we both go." Derek Hersey 1957-1993

    by ban nock on Thu Jul 28, 2011 at 05:35:00 PM PDT

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