Skip to main content

View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: 7/29 (135 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  NC-11 is where Shuler belongs (7+ / 0-)

    Shuler is from Swain County in the far western end of NC, lives in Waynesville, and has the U of Tenn star that helps him in Western NC.

    The part of NC-11 west of Asheville remains unchanged, so he has the incumbent advantage. I just don't see any possibility of his switching to NC-10 - he would lose most of his built-in advantage in NC-11.

    What I do expect is McHenry in NC-10 to get a far stronger challenge that he has seen in the past since his district was weakened considerably with the addition of former Shuler voters in Asheville. Maybe we should look for a Walter Jones-type GOPer to primary McHenry and Foxx.

    "America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves." — Abraham Lincoln

    by bear83 on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 07:01:43 AM PDT

    •  Shuler is not entirely safe (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tietack, Tarheelman1993, MichaelNY

      The 11th is gerrymandered to include more Republican voters to the Northeast and Southeast of the old 11th.

      The only thing that Shuler has going for him is that his Republican opponents won't have his incumbency or name recognition.

      Whoever comes out of the Republican primary for the 11th will get a good cash infusion. There will a strong play from the Republicans to win this seat.

      I live in Asheville, but I'm in the western section of town that is staying in the 11th. I don't like Shuler that much, but I'm going to have to support him.

      McHenry is pretty conservative. I don't see him losing a primary from the right. We'll have to overcome him with a strong Democrat and boots on the ground.

      Critical Thinking: The Other National Deficit.

      by cultjake on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 07:26:12 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I feel your pain, somewhat... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I'm glad that I'm not in your shoes whereby I'd support a candidate that is far to the right of me.  Right now, I'm barely in the NC-4 district...I'm probably about 300 yards from being in the NC-6 district.  The Republican Coble isn't quite as offensive as McHenry, but he's not nearly as good as Price or Miller.  

        •  Looks like I'm stuck with NC-6 (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          by about the same distance. Going from David Price to Howard Coble is gonna be a shock.

          "America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves." — Abraham Lincoln

          by bear83 on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 07:49:58 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  I agree - Shuler is far from safe (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, DCCyclone, KingofSpades

        But he has a much better chance for re-election in NC-11 than running in NC-10.

        In NC-10, I'd like to see McHenry primaried from the left by a sane GOPer (if there are any left), along with getting a strong Democratic challenge in November. McHenry's just not very smart - you never know when he might screw up (like calling a nice lady a liar in a Congressional hearing).

        "America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves." — Abraham Lincoln

        by bear83 on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 07:54:35 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Wasn't McHenry primaried last year? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        And didn't his challenger get some non-trivial share of the vote? Or am I misremembering?

        Political Director, Daily Kos

        by David Nir on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 08:22:57 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  My recollection (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Is yes McHenry faced a primary challenge in 2010 (Vance Patterson, David Bolden, and Scott Keadle) and I believe McHenry was actually out raised by one or even two of his primary opponents.

          But when the votes were counted McHenry won the primary rather handily.  Money did not buy his primary opponents love apparently and McHenry garnered 63% of the GOP primary vote against the field in 2010.

          "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

          by walja on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 08:51:38 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  I tend to agree (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bear83, KingofSpades

      Shuler looks like a better fit in NC-11 for the reasons you have listed.  And just like you stated, McHenry is not that strong of a congressman, so I'd prefer a more progressive candidate than Shuler to run against McHenry.  I think it's quite possible that the right Democratic candidate could make a serious run against him.  

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site