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View Diary: Polls: Liberals steady in Obama support, everyone in DC looks worse to public (331 comments)

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  •  look over the time frame of the debt debate (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Delilah, JC from IA, loblolly

    rather than the artificial June date. But even looking back to June, Obama's liberal minus national adults number is steady (now +30).

    Gallup's headline is:

    Obama Weekly Approval at 42%; Liberal Support Remains High
    Liberal Democrats give Obama 83% approval rating

    "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

    by Greg Dworkin on Mon Aug 01, 2011 at 08:22:49 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  I replied below...but I think that is the (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wbgonne

      wrong metric, as demonstrated by your second comment.

      Now maybe that is the metric used for the headline (I don't know it that is Gallup's or your headline), but I think it is misleading.  It implies liberal support above the national average remained steady, but that is virtually meaningless in terms of almost any potential result (political capital, re-election potential, etc)...

      thanks for clarifying the metric though...

      "But once John Boehner is sworn in as Speaker, then he’s going to have responsibilities to govern. You can’t just stand on the sidelines and be a bomb thrower." - President Obama, 12-07-2010

      by justmy2 on Mon Aug 01, 2011 at 08:38:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  it's been consnstently 28-30 points above (0+ / 0-)

        general support and it's been steady for a month. That takes us through the entire debt debate when it comes to media coverage. it's a perfectly reasonable statement of what the facts show.

        Obama Weekly Approval at 42%; Liberal Support Remains High
        Liberal Democrats give Obama 83% approval rating

        is Gallup's own headline and this is their own interp:

        Yet the data show that Obama's support from his liberal base remains as high relative to his overall average as it has throughout his term.

        See also the WaPo/Pew comment in the main post: the context is clearly "during the debt debate":

        but in the new poll, moderate and conservative Democrats are three times as likely as are liberal Democrats to say their opinion of Obama has deteriorated over the past few weeks. Just 7 percent of liberal Democrats say so; most, 55 percent, say their opinions are unchanged, and 37 percent say they are now more favorable.

        "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

        by Greg Dworkin on Tue Aug 02, 2011 at 04:18:12 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  W left office with 75% approval rating ... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      justmy2, Matt Z

      among Republicans. Didn't mean he was a great president or well loved by the base.

      Bush Approval Ratings

      How quickly the Pacifist becomes the Warrior when it's "our side" doing the killing.

      by edg on Mon Aug 01, 2011 at 08:44:44 PM PDT

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      •  actually (0+ / 0-)

        1. Didn't mean he was a great president is true

        2. or well loved by the base is false. He was, even at a time his numbers were lowest. it's even more false while he was president.

        "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

        by Greg Dworkin on Tue Aug 02, 2011 at 04:19:57 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Because his numbers quickly improved after (0+ / 0-)

          Obama was elected. In October '08 Bush favourables among Republicans was in the mid-50s. This is an atrocious number, probably unprecedented after Nixon.

          Plus, there's always the self-ID problem, Reps and Dems tend to start identifying themselves as indies when the party and its leader are unpopular.

          •  which is why base numbers are interesting (0+ / 0-)

            there are always shifts. everyone likes a winner.

            "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

            by Greg Dworkin on Tue Aug 02, 2011 at 07:15:09 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Um -- no. (0+ / 0-)

          That's not how polls work -- they ask "Do you approve or disapprove".

          Since that's a false dichotomy -- folks really mean "I approve relative to X Y or Z", you could have complete disapproval, true hate, and still get very high levels in a poll organized that way.

          Imagine -- Bush got 75% support among conservatives, yet every last conservative I've spoken to, since 2006, has said that "Bush wasn't a true conservative".

          How to reconcile those two -- oh how. But this is the kind of simplistic analysis that the pseudo-rational always employ.

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