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View Diary: Polls: Liberals steady in Obama support, everyone in DC looks worse to public (331 comments)

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  •  that is a testable hypothesis (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JC from IA

    so, let's see in a week. Right now, plenty of blame to go around.

    "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

    by Greg Dworkin on Mon Aug 01, 2011 at 08:39:53 PM PDT

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    •  I think we need a little more than a week (1+ / 0-)
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      reflectionsv37

      I suspect there will be a bump just like with the tax cuts...out of pure exhaustion and an exhale...but I think post labor day we will have a feel for the lasting result...

      I really don't think we should be using the day to day or week later results as criteria.  They give false comfort and can be counter-productive.

      "But once John Boehner is sworn in as Speaker, then he’s going to have responsibilities to govern. You can’t just stand on the sidelines and be a bomb thrower." - President Obama, 12-07-2010

      by justmy2 on Mon Aug 01, 2011 at 08:44:17 PM PDT

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      •  ? (0+ / 0-)

        People have reactions to things and this is the time to measure it. See killing of bin Laden, time frame for polls. But humans are complex creatures and don't vote just on one issue. See killing of bin Laden.

        There's nothing false or misleading about it. There's nothing wrong with asking and looking at questions now, so long as you don't think it predicts the future.

        "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

        by Greg Dworkin on Tue Aug 02, 2011 at 04:40:04 AM PDT

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        •  It depends on the hypothesis (0+ / 0-)

          I was referring to the long term impact.  Not what the immediate feelings about the plan.  I don't think they are useful in evaluating the long term impact, which I find much more critical than what people think today.

          That is helpful, but just as daily tracking not as useful as the trend,  I am stating that this is no different.

          So I think we are saying basically the same thing.  A point in time poll is misleading if you are evaluating how the will impact overall approval.  They are simply a bump.  The question is will that bump be sustained. (Or to be more specific, that is my question and how I read the earlier comment).

          "But once John Boehner is sworn in as Speaker, then he’s going to have responsibilities to govern. You can’t just stand on the sidelines and be a bomb thrower." - President Obama, 12-07-2010

          by justmy2 on Tue Aug 02, 2011 at 12:53:55 PM PDT

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        •  These things aren't linear. (0+ / 0-)

          The straw that broke the camel's back didn't actually break the camel's back, you know. The first straw is as guilty as the last.

          Polls are terribly poor prognosticators because of that -- they funnel the question, predetermine the issues, and reduce the answers.

          Therefore, it is misleading to make that simple mapping between polls and political sociology.

          And if you're not trying to predict the future -- then what are you doing at all? It's only scientific if it actually predicts other results, if it has implications. Otherwise, you're just looking at faces in the clouds.

      •  and perhaps an even better example is the (0+ / 0-)

        health reform act. Over time, people change their opinion. So what? If you want to know what the public thinks, you look now, and you look again later, and even as of today it's not fully implemented so you look again in the future.

        We'll look now, we'll look again. Then again, that's why we haven't shut down the blog.  ;-)

        "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

        by Greg Dworkin on Tue Aug 02, 2011 at 04:42:47 AM PDT

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    •  Pell Grant Cuts For Grad Students (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      reflectionsv37

      It's not even widely known on here let alone with the general public. I think it will take some time before all these families realize their kid's education has been negatively impacted by this "victory" in "budget discipline."

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