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View Diary: Wisconsin recalls: Democrats hold double-digit leads in final two races (188 comments)

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    LordMike

    Hansen 67-33
    Cowles 57-43
    Darling 54-46
    Harsdorf 58-42
    Olsen 52-48
    Hopper 49-51
    Kapanke 45-55

    The average margin last week was 52.5 to 47.5, GOP +5.

    The Kerry defeat in those 6 seats was 45.6 to 53.3, GOP +8.

    The Obama margin in those 6 seats was 52.8 to 45.5, D +7.

    That says to me that though the electorate is less Republican than 2004 it is closer to that than 2008. So the margin will be somewhere between Hansen and Darling's margins. He will get some advantage from incumbency like Hansen so maybe the PPP number is correct.

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