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View Diary: Wisconsin recalls: Democrats hold double-digit leads in final two races (188 comments)

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  •  Vukmir won by a 4.5% margin in 2010 (2+ / 0-)
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    AnnieJo, MikeB

    The 5 Senate recalls so far that were contested in 2008 have swung D+1 since then.  The Assembly swing for races contested both times from 2008->2010 was R+17, the US House likewise R+19.  Hence the November 2010 -> August 2011 swing is about D+18, maybe even slightly more.

    Vukmir would go down whenever you can get her onto a ballot.

    The D+18 thing is pretty incredible, but we saw D+25 in May in the 94th Assembly seat special election vs 2010 (the seat that Mike Huebsch left to become Walker's man in the Department of Administration), and Walker's gone from R+6 in November to D+7 (Barrett rematch) or D+10 (vs Feingold) according to PPP in May, and his approval rating has only worsened since then.

    Making the Republican class of '10 be voted upon by an electorate in the mood for an '08 would remove 4 of them - Vukmir included - by significant margins (others would be Wanggaard in the 21st, Moulton in the 23rd and Galloway in the 29th).

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