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  •  ppp has been very accurate (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pot

    poblano's analysis of polls has been very accurate. how does that happen?

    48forEastAfrica - Donate to Oxfam (The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers)

    by Laurence Lewis on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 08:22:59 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  accurate for what? (5+ / 0-)

      What fact has he kicked out, he may think he knows how people feel, but is that sound policy?  He may think he knows what people tell him, but so fucking what.  Your polls make you think that Barack Obama is losing Black support, but OOOPS your polls don't know a fucking thing.

      How was your weekend Mr. President? Just great! Ate some ice cream, played with the kids, spent some quality time with the Mrs., oversaw the end of a tyrant, you know just a normal relaxing vacation.

      by Adept2u on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 08:25:01 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  um (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        pot, supercereal

        again- you need to demonstrate that the polls have flawed methodology or that they exclude black people or that they make inaccurate predictions. have you done so?

        48forEastAfrica - Donate to Oxfam (The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers)

        by Laurence Lewis on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 08:26:42 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Um (5+ / 0-)

          You need to demonstrate your poll that states that Barack Obama is losing Black support reflects reality.

          How was your weekend Mr. President? Just great! Ate some ice cream, played with the kids, spent some quality time with the Mrs., oversaw the end of a tyrant, you know just a normal relaxing vacation.

          by Adept2u on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 08:36:53 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Present your poll btw (4+ / 0-)

          You stated you had polling showing that AA support for the President was falling, so why don't you link the polls so I can examine the questions and the cross tabs.

          How was your weekend Mr. President? Just great! Ate some ice cream, played with the kids, spent some quality time with the Mrs., oversaw the end of a tyrant, you know just a normal relaxing vacation.

          by Adept2u on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 08:42:27 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  here are the two most recent (0+ / 0-)

            48forEastAfrica - Donate to Oxfam (The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers)

            by Laurence Lewis on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 08:55:51 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  BWAHAHAHAHA! (7+ / 0-)

              81 percent of blacks surveyed said that they did.

              Wait a minute.  81% is evidence of lack of support in the community?  I'm not even going to go into the question or whether they asked the one I wanted asked.  Why isn't 81% overwhelming support and why do you equate such a number with Black people not supporting the President?

              Your second article was a question based solely on the economy apparently and again the question didn't show any crosstabs I could see as to how many Black folks you asked, and did not ask the question that would gauge actual support.

              Like this, In the face of Republican obstructionism in the economy who do you support Barrack Obama, or Rick Perry.

              But the White pollsters aren't really interested in Black support for the President are they.

              How was your weekend Mr. President? Just great! Ate some ice cream, played with the kids, spent some quality time with the Mrs., oversaw the end of a tyrant, you know just a normal relaxing vacation.

              by Adept2u on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 09:05:37 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  again (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                pot, supercereal

                i said he still has strong support but it is falling. it's the trend. he was in the nineties. he also still has strong support among white liberals. but it too is falling.

                48forEastAfrica - Donate to Oxfam (The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers)

                by Laurence Lewis on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 09:09:53 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  So says your polls (5+ / 0-)

                  Not reflective of reality only reflective of the answers to questions, hey did they call cell phones?  Hey did they call registered or unregistered, hey isn't Rasmussen a "poll" too?  LOL.

                  Here's my statement again and your poll is meaningless.

                  The Black community support for Barack Obama is rock solid and will only increase as we approach the election.  Here's another little nugget, but no poll will ask this question.  The Black community is finding that the pissed off progressive give the same insult and demean the President in the same way, and we won't soon forget it, because it's time for phase 2 of the Black community.  We finally got you people for the most part to get your police off of us and the open legal racism is ended, now it's time for us to get the full measure of our respect.

                  How was your weekend Mr. President? Just great! Ate some ice cream, played with the kids, spent some quality time with the Mrs., oversaw the end of a tyrant, you know just a normal relaxing vacation.

                  by Adept2u on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 09:23:37 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

        •  They DO have flawed methodology... (4+ / 0-)

          and anyone who is an actual pollster worth their salt will tell you that!  This is my field and has been for 15 years.  I know this!  There is also a problem with young voters as well and other people of color and poor people, etc.  

          I for one am tired of pandering to perpetrators --- many of whom are opposed to any discussion however it comes. -- soothsayer99 DPK Caucus

          by princss6 on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 12:11:36 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  please (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sgary

            reveal the actual flaws in the actual methodology of the actual polls. if you want to be taken seriously.

            interesting that the gang's all here in a dead diary. too funny.

            48forEastAfrica - Donate to Oxfam (The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers)

            by Laurence Lewis on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 12:53:48 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  You are citing the poll... (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              soothsayer99, poco, LaurenMonica

              you prove it doesn't encounter industry wide difficulty with getting a representative sample of AA voters.

              All that other extra commentary about who is here or isn't and "gangs" and all that personalized commentary is ironic given that if I'm here, you are, too!

              I for one am tired of pandering to perpetrators --- many of whom are opposed to any discussion however it comes. -- soothsayer99 DPK Caucus

              by princss6 on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 01:06:24 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  please (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                sgary

                cite evidence to back these assertions. given that this is your area of expertise i'm sure you have plenty.

                and i was in this thread last night when the diary was posted. you and others are showing up a good half day later. curious that.

                48forEastAfrica - Donate to Oxfam (The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers)

                by Laurence Lewis on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 01:08:31 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Hey I found something for ya! (4+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  princss6, soothsayer99, poco, LaurenMonica

                  http://www.stat.columbia.edu/...(1).pdf

                  Political polls achieve their results by sampling a small number of potential voters
                  rather than the population as a whole.  This leads to “sampling error” which most
                  polling agencies dutifully report.   But factors such as nonrepresentative samples,
                  question wording and nonresponse can produce non-sampling errors
                  . While
                  pollsters are aware of such errors, they are difficult to quantify and seldom
                  reported.
                   When a polling agency, whether by intention or not, produces results
                  with non-sampling errors that systematically favor one candidate over another,
                  then that agency’s poll is biased.  We analyzed polling data for the (on-going)
                  2008 Presidential race, and though our methods do not allow us to identify which
                  agencies’ polls are biased, they do provide significant evidence that some
                  agencies’ polls are
                  We also compared tracking polls produced by Gallup, Rasmussen, Hotline/FD,
                  and the Daily KOS.   Here again we found significant evidence of bias.  Most
                  notably, the Rasmussen and the Gallup polls were significantly to the right of the Daily KOS poll.  A detailed analysis of the Gallup and Rasmussen polls also
                  suggested the likelihood of short-term bias.  
                  Our findings are preliminary, but given the importance of polling in America, they
                  make a case for further research into the causes of and remedies for polling bias

                  How was your weekend Mr. President? Just great! Ate some ice cream, played with the kids, spent some quality time with the Mrs., oversaw the end of a tyrant, you know just a normal relaxing vacation.

                  by Adept2u on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 01:17:21 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Thanks, Adept... (4+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Adept2u, soothsayer99, poco, LaurenMonica

                    only one who does not understand how difficult it is to get a representative sample and especially for smaller and harder to reach groups through traditional methods would persist in this vein that he must have TEH PROOF!

                    I for one am tired of pandering to perpetrators --- many of whom are opposed to any discussion however it comes. -- soothsayer99 DPK Caucus

                    by princss6 on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 01:21:09 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  your link doesn't work (0+ / 0-)

                    and their evidence is preliminary, making a case for further research. in other words, it can't be taken as conclusive. furthermore, it's not clear that the evidence of bias was that ras (the worst, besides zogby) and gallup were wrong or that dk was. and it also isn't clear if this was ppp, which just proved spot on in wisconsin, or the previous pollster, whom markos is suing. and beyond that, i don't see anything suggesting racial bias in the cited quotes. and beyond that, every pollster admits to having a margin of error. some prove accurate over time, despite those margins. some don't. rasmussen has a history of being wrong. ppp doesn't.

                    48forEastAfrica - Donate to Oxfam (The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers)

                    by Laurence Lewis on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 01:23:36 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  here you go (3+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      soothsayer99, poco, LaurenMonica

                      link

                      Just telling princess that it didn't work this does.

                      How was your weekend Mr. President? Just great! Ate some ice cream, played with the kids, spent some quality time with the Mrs., oversaw the end of a tyrant, you know just a normal relaxing vacation.

                      by Adept2u on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 01:25:45 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  Oh and strange "science" you got there (0+ / 0-)

                      When I was in science classes one of the hallmarks of the class was that anything scientific be able to produce an experiment that was 100% repeatable in confirmation of a theory.  Oh well guess I should have read the books rather than look at the girls, cause I obviously missed where there was anything in polling that met that classification.  I'll go back to my original point here and bid you peace, polls are irrelevant they give people the impression they know things without doing the research and gaining the first hand knowledge of people to actually really know.  It makes white people say that Barack Obama is losing Black support when buddy you are about to see a tsunami, and I know you don't hear me, but it isn't going to be just the teabaggers who get remembered.

                      How was your weekend Mr. President? Just great! Ate some ice cream, played with the kids, spent some quality time with the Mrs., oversaw the end of a tyrant, you know just a normal relaxing vacation.

                      by Adept2u on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 01:37:31 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  margins of error (0+ / 0-)

                        are common in science. i guess you didn't learn that.

                        you know what i find interesting? while you ignore the polls and claim all this uniform anger (or is a tsunami something passive and friendly?), black people i know in real life and black members of this very community prove you wrong. there is no uniformity of opinion about obama and there is no uniformity of opinion about the substantive criticism made about him. yes, there is racism. yes, that sometimes is revealed in the very words people use. but there also is deep and substantive criticism and plenty of black people themselves make it and agree with it.

                        overall, obama is still hugely popular among blacks and among white liberals. they are his base. but those numbers are slipping. people who once did little but praise him now often criticize him. it happens here, it happens with the cbc, it happens in the polls. ignore it all you want. some of us want him to make some radical changes in his approach because we don't like seeing this slippage, and the wider implosion in his overall poll numbers. some of us want him to be able to win reelection not because people so loathe the gop but because they so like obama.

                        48forEastAfrica - Donate to Oxfam (The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers)

                        by Laurence Lewis on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 01:47:03 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

            •  I linked the conversation in Vyans diary (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              soothsayer99, LaurenMonica

              I thought it hilarious as we were discussing the issues of the tag Angry Black Man I was tagged with the meme at the same time.

              How was your weekend Mr. President? Just great! Ate some ice cream, played with the kids, spent some quality time with the Mrs., oversaw the end of a tyrant, you know just a normal relaxing vacation.

              by Adept2u on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 01:09:10 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  i tagged you as angry (0+ / 0-)

                given that you were tossing around angry assertions with no basis in fact, that you accused me of introducing race into a conversation that wasn't about race, even though it was in fact you who had done so just moments before, and that you continue to accuse me of things such as the gopasaur nonsense that are factually false, it wasn't a stretch.

                here's a clue, adept: people get angry. all people get angry. sometimes they get angry for valid reasons and sometimes not. even you.

                48forEastAfrica - Donate to Oxfam (The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers)

                by Laurence Lewis on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 01:14:35 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  lol! (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  princss6, soothsayer99, LaurenMonica

                  Because you're the arbiter of facts right!  Here's a clue Laurence you're funny you don't make me mad, and I didn't accuse you of the gopasauer I used the analogy of it being when I knew something.  So, just so the record is straight the only thing I'll accuse you of is using polls to base your opinions on then trying to peddle your (wrong as a fish with tits about 70%) of the time opinion as FACT.

                  Oh and I found your study Laurence.

                  How was your weekend Mr. President? Just great! Ate some ice cream, played with the kids, spent some quality time with the Mrs., oversaw the end of a tyrant, you know just a normal relaxing vacation.

                  by Adept2u on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 01:20:24 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  um (0+ / 0-)

                    you accused me of being wrong. i explained that i have been right on the economy, the wars, and the electoral consequences, and then you somehow brought up the gopasaur, and then you said you were ahead of the game and i wasn't. even though i again explained that you again were wrong because i was discounting the gopasaur nonsense in real time, in early 2009. you have proven me wrong on exactly nothing. you have been all over the map with your false assertions. and your study doesn't say what you want it to say.

                    48forEastAfrica - Donate to Oxfam (The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers)

                    by Laurence Lewis on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 01:26:53 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

            •  you (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              soothsayer99, poco, LaurenMonica

              have a lot of nerve, ululating about "gangs" and "dead diaries," when you and andgarden and armando used to gather in your little butt-hurt pity-parties in dead threads over at TalkLeft, to wail and rend your garments about the Evil that is dKos.

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