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View Diary: Rick Perry's Texas 'miracle' is built on minimum wage jobs (75 comments)

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  •  By what measure is the foreclosure rank 10th? (1+ / 0-)
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    If it's total foreclosures, that would imply they're doing quite well, since they're the 2nd most populous state.

    RealtyTrac's foreclosure heat map makes clear there are a lot more than 10 states with higher foreclosure rates and that the state's foreclosure rate (1 in 920 units) is lower than the national average (1 in 611).

    Zillow's median home price trend for Texas shows the median price today is a fraction higher than it was in October 2008. It'd be nice the trend went back further, but it doesn't. Anyway, Texas' home price trend sure as heck looks better than Florida, Nevada, California, Michigan or New York... or even, say, Vermont.

    Krugman's last column didn't talk specifically about foreclosures or subprime rates - he simply stated they were "spared the worst of the housing crisis" - which the price trend shows. Playing with the timeline on CNN's foreclosure map shows that their pre-collapse foreclosure rate was already somewhat high - the rate in October 2007 exceeded that in October 2008, while the national rate jumped more than 20% over the same timescale. So, the affect of the crisis on Texas' foreclosure rate was minimal. The affect on their house prices was also minimal.

    •  the graphic in the diary - from (1+ / 0-)
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      puts the foreclosure rate at 10th.

      Maybe texaswatch went back further than others.  You have a very interesting point, that Texas was already foreclosing at a high rate in advance of the national crisis.

      •  Clicking through their link (1+ / 0-)
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        looks like that was a snapshot taken in September 2008. It was ranked by percentage of units in foreclosure, not total foreclosures, so my first point was irrelevant. But it was also an old datapoint.

        On the subprime side, considering the assertion that Texas ranks last in credit scores, 13th in subprime rates would seem better than expected. However, I have some problems with both assertions - their subprime claim is based on data from IBM that, when I loaded it into Excel, would seem to place Texas 17th, not 13th, and again it's an old snapshot - January 2008. Their link for the credit scores doesn't explain where it got the data from - although, the site it's from is for an Experian company, so it can't be dismissed - but also doesn't say over what time period the data was gathered. What's more, the data from which they extracted the subprime claim also includes FICO averages for the states that differ wildly from the data that places Texas last - the US average stated in the IBM data is 617, whereas Experian says the average for Texas (ranked last, don't forget) is 651 - massively contradictory. IBM ranks Texas 36th, not 50th. A conspiracy theorist might point out that it's in the interest of a company selling credit monitoring products to get people concerned that they're doing worse compared to average than is really the case.

        Anyway, this is somewhat besides the point. Texas isn't doing miraculously well. Considering the built-in advantages it has from the energy industry and population growth, maybe the hacks should be demanding to know why it isn't doing better.

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