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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 8/23 (156 comments)

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  •  MI GOP Primary Poll (0+ / 0-)

    I'd always said it, but now I have some proof, but Texas governors continue not play well in Michigan, thank god:

    Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney enjoys a comfortable lead over his nearest challenger, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, in a new poll of Michigan Republican presidential primary voters.

    Romney was supported by 32% of those surveyed, compared to 17% for Perry, 12% for Minnesota U.S. Rep. Michelle Bachmann and 5% for former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. All but Palin are declared candidates for the 2012 Republican nomination.

    The poll was conducted by EPIC-MRA of Lansing Aug. 13-16, and surveyed 210 likely Republican primary voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 6.7 percentage points.

    If you read the comments on the article, as is usual, many of the comments are by Republicans or conservative-leaning independents.  The Michigan GOP does not take kindly to the social wars and the anti-intellectualism Perry embodies.

    •  Your last sentence (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      doesn't really jibe with the results of the poll. The way I read it, a very large percentage of primary voters in Michigan are voicing support for candidates who are anti-intellectual and/or embracing the culture wars - that is, if you add up the votes for Perry, Bachmann, Paul, Palin, and the other also-rans that don't merit mention in the write-up.

      Also, due to family connections and a previous run, Romney has something of an edge here (at the start), as his name recognition is probably higher. That could change fast as the other candidates start to get press in the area - and as voters start to pay more attention.

      •  Who else? (0+ / 0-)

        Who else are they going to vote for?  Of course the rest of the votes went to those types.  They are the only other major names running.  Compare this poll to the one taken in Iowa.

        •  It's early... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          Iowa is first-in-the-nation, so I would imagine they're paying more attention than most. You're right, though, that MI doesn't have as sizable an evangelical, hard-right tilt. Still, I wouldn't rule out an upset from one of the other players, especially if they can somehow consolidate support (e.g. Perry poaching Bachmann voters).

          Romney's family is also well-known there, so he might have an early edge, which could dissipate. I don't think his comments about the auto industry in '09 will help him much either.

    •  210 likely Republican primary voters (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, James Allen, MichaelNY

      that should raise some alarms.  Huge margin of error, they tested Sarah Palin, and they're already using a likely voter screen?

      I wouldn't doubt Romney is in the lead or do I have any reason to believe the results are drastically different, but the methodology on this poll is suspect as was their ridiculous use of "fair" for favorability.

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