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View Diary: What "SpeechDate" Really Shows (362 comments)

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  •  The internal Republican math (0+ / 0-)

    seems to me all about their confidence that the 2012 elections are essentially in the bag for them.  At least the House and Senate majorities, with the Presidency a 51-49ish outcome either way but more likely Republican.   But even if Obama prevails, they can keep on taking hostages and he has to keep on trying to protect his loyalist base.  (A Republican President might actually pose more and Party-splitting opposition to some of the stuff they're willing to do.)

    So Obama is politically a dead man walking in their eyes, and that's how they're treating him.

    Which may be true.

    The cold pessimistic/pragmatist view to take on all this stuff is that the Administration and Congress and all the various leaders are largely at work not on anything that will be implemented.  It's really all about defining the particular size and terms of the mandate that the election winners get out of the 2012 elections.

    For Democrats (who are the likely losers) that is largely to define, limit, and moderate what that mandate is by rallying public opinion into making certain areas politically toxic.  Mitt Romney taking major SS and Medicare cuts off the table would be an example of a success, perhaps.

    The deeper damage inflicted on Republicans in the present likely won't tell in 2012, where voter priority will probably remain the eliminating of economic status quo-defending conservative Democrats.  (Which was the case in 2010.)  But by the 2014 elections if Republicans hold true to form of never learning, as they invariably do, they'll be sinking under the waves in voter opinion as well.

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