Skip to main content

View Diary: BREAKING: Israel's Embassy in Cairo Stormed, Ambassador Flees Egypt, 180 Injured in Clashes (393 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  It's Lieberman who's scuttled the apology (5+ / 0-)

    in the first place.

    And now today's news, which I pray isn't true, that the FM is recommending Israel start arming the PKK as a means of punishing Turkey.

    I said a week ago, here, that there is a very dangerous escalatory dynamic at work here and I find it very, very concerning. I know both states, particularly Turkey - very well and neither is one to back down.

    This situation will de-escalate with the assistance of joint allies and it will be done in a very non-public way.

    "The two pioneering forces of modern sensibility are Jewish moral seriousness and homosexual aestheticism and irony." Susan Sontag

    by Shane Hensinger on Fri Sep 09, 2011 at 04:25:32 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  I saw that. (3+ / 0-)

      It's completely insane.  And has all the hallmarks of Lieberman's reactionary style.

      He and Bibi seem bent on making all the wrong foreign policy moves right now.

      And don't count too much on Turkey backing down to US pressure on this one.  Turkey just agreed to place anti-missile batteries in their country.  I'm not sure how much the US can pressure Turkey without potentially losing those sites.

      Remember, Erdogan is heading to Egypt with wads of cash in his pockets.  If they let him cross into Gaza, nobody will probably be able to stop this escalation.

      Nothing worth noting at the moment.

      by Bonsai66 on Fri Sep 09, 2011 at 04:32:11 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Nobody wants war (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TheHalfrican, greatdarkspot

        That is the key element in this type of conflict analysis. Turkey is going to say a lot, like it's going to send warships with aid convoys, but in reality I bet you Turkey won't be sending any convoys to Gaza. Nor will Israel be sending any arms to the PKK.

        So ignore the overheated rhetoric here. Erdogan is high on his recent election victory and is appealing to his nationalist Islamist base. But in the end he's not going to go to war with Israel - there are a thousand reasons why not, but it's not going to happen.

        "The two pioneering forces of modern sensibility are Jewish moral seriousness and homosexual aestheticism and irony." Susan Sontag

        by Shane Hensinger on Fri Sep 09, 2011 at 04:37:34 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  He doesn't need to go to war in order... (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          TheHalfrican, ask, petral, Terra Mystica

          to win this showdown.  All he has to do is move closer to Egypt and establish some type of mutual defense pact, while convincing them to cool relations with Israel and fully open the border.

          This leaves Israel almost completely isolated, except for Jordan if I'm not mistaken.

          How nervous do you think that will make the current government?

          Nothing worth noting at the moment.

          by Bonsai66 on Fri Sep 09, 2011 at 04:41:57 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I'm unconcerned about Egypt and Turkey (0+ / 0-)

            cooperating on defense issues, and I bet most people in the Israeli government feel the same way. Neither state is an enemy of Israel and in addition Egypt has a peace treaty with Israel. And until that peace treaty is revoked I won't get too worried.

            "The two pioneering forces of modern sensibility are Jewish moral seriousness and homosexual aestheticism and irony." Susan Sontag

            by Shane Hensinger on Fri Sep 09, 2011 at 04:46:46 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I understand your lack of concern... (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Nailbanger, Terra Mystica

              but disagree with it.  This is only the opening salvo of a decaying relationship that will take place over the next decade.

              At this point, I see neither Turkey or Egypt reverting to the status quo vis a vis diplomatic relations with Israel.

              That era is over.

              Nothing worth noting at the moment.

              by Bonsai66 on Fri Sep 09, 2011 at 04:49:45 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Shane, (11+ / 0-)

              I would like to point you to an opinion column written this morning by Marwan Bishara over at Al Jazeera.  I considered Marwan to be one of the most astute and pragmatic observers of the various political dynamics in the ME.

              Israel has clearly paid little attention to the fact that Turkey and Egypt in 2011 are nothing like they were a year or a decade ago.

              I agree with that assessment 100%.

              As it stands, Netanyahu's Israel has lost the only two significant allies it had in the region.

              Its attempts to pressure Washington into cleaning up its mess and tame its adversaries does not seem to be helping either.

              Washington has also lost much of its political leverage in Turkey and Egypt because of the public pressure in both countries.

              Any more pressure by Washington would only embarrass the generals in Turkey and the ruling military council in Egypt which are already under tremendous pressure from their respective publics.

              Even though Washington remains an important strategic ally to both countries and commands strong military-to-military relations, it can no longer protect Israel from popular anger.

              And he sums up:

              For Israel, if it truly wants to change all that, a round of apologies may be in order. As one Western commentator put it this week: "Yes, Israel, increasingly isolated, should do just that. An apology is the right course and the smart course. What’s good for Egypt — an apology over lost lives — is good for Turkey, too."

              Very few knowledgeable observers of this situation could realistically dispute any of those statements and conclusions.

              Nothing worth noting at the moment.

              by Bonsai66 on Sat Sep 10, 2011 at 07:27:24 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  A rare moment when I agree (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Tamar

      with every single point in your comment.

      First defeat, then deceit, then you're totally in denial (old Egyptian proverb)

      by Ptah the Great on Fri Sep 09, 2011 at 05:31:44 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  what's the possibility of a new election in israel (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Tamar

      with a less nut job kadima-led coalition coming to the fore? does israel have the political potential to back the hell away from this?

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site