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View Diary: Rick Perry loses support because of Social Security gaffes (134 comments)

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  •  I thought that once (Romney couldn't win FL). (1+ / 0-)
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    pollwatcher

    Now I hear from family members in FL (most are Democrats, however, they are conservative ones) that he's really in trouble over the SS debacle (not only the position, but the sub-literate explanation of it).

    I really think Perry is imploding. I disagree now that Perry will win, and I disagree if he does, that he'll pick Romney.

    If Perry does win, someone like Rubio or P. Ryan would provide everything that Romney does, plus they're from swing states, plus they  aren't Mormon (I don't agree w/ the discrimination, obviously, but it seems to be real w/ some Christian conservatives, and Perry is ruthless enough to realize that).

    The  President was always the favorite as an incumbent, but now I think he's moved to a firm favorite. Romney/Rubio would be a hell of a ticket...but I'm not sure Rubio would accept. If it's Ryan, it brings up the whole Medicare thing.

    Not only that, but in these swing states (WI, OH, FL, MI) they've got these unpopular governors. If you're a fan of the President this was a good week.

    Look, if I were a genius at this, I'd be in DC making six figures, obviously, but I think I've got decent instincts. I think the President's chances went from about 50/50 to about 55/45 (his favor) this week.

    For all his weaknesses as a political strategist, the President also has two truly great strengths as a campaigner.

    1) His oratory skills wear thin as President. As a candidate, they'll enthrall again.

    2) He is very, very, very patient. It's a very underestimated strategic quality. He'll wait for his opponent to make a mistake. His fans get pissed waiting, but if it's Perry, can anyone doubt (now) that Perry will make a mistake?

    The problem for Pres Obama is Gov Romney is also patient. If it's Romney, I really think it comes down to the  Vice-Pres. If he can unite the R base w/ it. He chooses wrong, he's probably toast.

    Perry already seems like Texas Toast. It's going to get to the point where they serve him w/ syrup and a side of bacon if it continues like this. I just don't see him winning  purple or light blue states now.

    Maybe when he busted a cap in that coyote's crown, and his poll numbers actually went up, he thought the whole US was Texas. Maybe I did too. Things can and will change, but as of right now: I'd say we were both wrong.

    District: Red-light...

    by trickamsterdam on Tue Sep 13, 2011 at 03:49:02 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  nice analysis, but then there's the depression (0+ / 0-)

      As long as we're in this depression, and I expect it to get worse rather than better, it's going to be really hard for Obama to say the other guy is much worse than I am.  It certainly didn't work in 2010 and it looks like it's not working in NY today.

      •  I would hate to bet against a Perry (0+ / 0-)

        candidacy.  For him to be that close (the Repub. nominee), and with the economy in the crapper, I have little faith in the broader electorate.  

        Perry wants this B A D and has the means and motivation and connections to try to make it happen.  

        He will pander to the stupid of the electorate, and will do the bidding of the money and power brokers.  Their only concern may be if he'll STAY bought, but that's just arguing over the price, now isn't it?

        "I'm offended that you think I can be bought for $5,000!".  OK, Rick, what IS yer price?

        Torture is Wrong! We live near W so you don't have to. Send love.

        by tom 47 on Wed Sep 14, 2011 at 06:53:37 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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