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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: 9/19 (115 comments)

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  •  I seriously doubt he cruises to anything (5+ / 0-)

    He could well be the nominee but he is set for a tough challenge no matter how big the field happens to be. Indeed, the more candidates the more incoming he has to deal with.

    “I am a man of fixed and unbending principles, the first of which is to be flexible at all times.” Everett Dirksen (R-IL)

    by conspiracy on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 08:23:35 AM PDT

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    •  I think it depends (0+ / 0-)

      on the strength of the candidates among the GOP primary electorate and on the not-unrelated ideological split in that electorate.  If there's a lot of the electorate open to Thompson and the other candidates are both/all strong, then he'd be in a good position.  If he has a smaller chunk to start with, and/or one of the other candidates is much stronger than the others, then the mere fact of a divided field won't help him.  That's why I'd like to see some GOP primary voter polling--maybe not of head-to-head match-ups, but just of favorability and some policy/self-identified ideology questions.  It's easy to make assumptions about WI GOP voters, but who really knows?

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

      by Xenocrypt on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 08:34:31 AM PDT

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      •  Educated guess rather than assumption (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, DCCyclone

        I think last cycle suggests they will prefer a fresh face. The gubernatorial primary right there in Wisconsin for example.

        “I am a man of fixed and unbending principles, the first of which is to be flexible at all times.” Everett Dirksen (R-IL)

        by conspiracy on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 08:46:49 AM PDT

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        •  Where Neumann lost to Walker (0+ / 0-)

          So who is the Walker of this race?  Is it Neumann?  That'd be funny.

          BTW has Fitzgerald actually announced, or is he considered a near-certainty, or neither?

          26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

          by Xenocrypt on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 08:57:59 AM PDT

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          •  Fitz announced. (0+ / 0-)

            'The weak can never forgive. Forgiveness is the attribute of the strong.' -Mohandas K. Gandhi

            by KingofSpades on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 09:05:55 AM PDT

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            •  I thought so (0+ / 0-)

              Plus Neumann is relatively fresher than Thompson.

              “I am a man of fixed and unbending principles, the first of which is to be flexible at all times.” Everett Dirksen (R-IL)

              by conspiracy on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 09:20:04 AM PDT

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