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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: 9/20 (181 comments)

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  •  not bad for a 7-1 map ... (5+ / 0-)

    they had chart w/ partisan numbers ... I ran % ...
    Obama (out of 2-party vote):
    1. 40
    2. 61
    3. 62
    4. 83
    5. 63
    6. 63
    7. 70
    8. 67
    O'Malley 2010 (out of 2-party vote):
    1. 35
    2. 55
    3. 56
    4. 80
    5. 60
    6. 57
    7. 63
    8. 64

    •  Those numbers seem off. I plugged the (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      terjeanderson

      6th into DRA and it's like 56.7-41.6 Obama (57.6 two-party). I have the 8th slightly more Democratic then you do, but even if you trade a couple precincts, you don't get the 6th up to 63 two-party.

      Also, the counties that make up the 6th and 8th are 63% Obama two-party vote. That can't average out to 63 and 67.

      •  you're right ... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        terjeanderson

        I got the numbers from here ...

        http://marylandreporter.com/...

        http://marylandreporter.com/...

        ... and assumed the info was correct, but noticed same thing when I looked back at an old diary I wrote where I had 2 districts equal to (almost) exactly Montg. Co. plus Frederick & W. MD ...

        http://www.swingstateproject.com/...

        ... and the avg. for the 2 together was about 62.5 Obama ...

      •  the problem .. (0+ / 0-)

        may be their write up:

        "The chart shows the vote in each district in the 2010 governor’s race between Martin O’Malley and Bob Ehrlich, the vote in the 2008 presidential race between Barack Obama and John McCain, and percentage of voting age African Americans."

        it looks like maybe the chart is registered voters (??)

      •  ofcourse ... if MD Dems. are ... (0+ / 0-)

        only aiming for 57% Obama districts, you may as well go with an 8-0 plan (well, maybe more like 7-0-1, w/ Kratovil having a good chance here ... and the AA districts are just as high % AA):

        http://www.dailykos.com/...

        •  Yeah. I plugged in Hoyer, Edwards, (0+ / 0-)

          Van Hollen and Bartlett (the others seem a bit too tortured to put into DRA from that crude map), and I have Edwards at 51.5% Black VAP (could be a bit higher) and 81.5-17.5 Obama, Hoyer at 37% Black VAP and 63.6-35.3% Obama and Van Hollen at 67-31.6% Obama.

      •  one more thing re. this ... (0+ / 0-)

        when you do totals on columns in their chart, it comes out to about 1.61 million Obama votes and 930,000 McCain (63% Obama for state, out of 2-party vote) ... real numbers are 1.63 mil. Obama, 960,000 McCain (also 63% Obama) .. so, even if absentees, etc. not counted, the numbers appear "proportional" .. which makes it a mystery why not right for MD-6 and MD-8, unless chart somehow reflects another (better ?) map ... (???)

        •  Weird. Yeah, and the question is, if (0+ / 0-)

          MD-6 is so much more solid in that chart, then which district is weaker than the chart in the proposed map we saw? I mean, this is a zero-sum game.

          •  well ... (0+ / 0-)

            chart could be right, but we're just not seeing the right map ... or if map is correct, then MD-6 could indeed be 57 (or so) Obama while MD-8 is 67 (or so) and the other 6 districts could still be correct (???) hard to tell ...

            btw, it seems their goal for 7-1 is to create cleaner lines around the DC area, but Balto. area is as messed up as current map ...

            •  Maybe they figured (0+ / 0-)

              that people are at least used to the convoluted Baltimore area lines, and that the DC area districts could be reshaped to make them cleaner while at the same time snagging an extra Democratic seat.

              I tried to draw a map at DRA that made the 6th Democratic, conceded the 1st, and maintained a black majority 4th and 7th with somewhat cleaner lines, but had trouble keeping the 2nd Democratic, as it would be centered in the eastern Baltimore suburbs that are traditionally Democratic but culturally conservative.  I kept creating a 2nd that voted for McCain (though for Dems in many lower ballot races); Dutch probably could hold such a district but it would be highly vulnerable without him (remember how Helen Bentley and Bob Ehrlich held the 2nd in the 80s and 90s).

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