Skip to main content

View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: What on earth happened to Jennifer Brunner? (314 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  Obama only needs (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, askew, DCCyclone

    about 40% of the white vote to win the state. And if Obama is in a tossup race with Romney at 40% approval nationwide, it shows Obama still has some strength.

    What does this poll say that we don't already know? That Florida was going to be competitive? Duh. Democrats haven't won Florida by double digits since Truman.

    People panic too much on this site.

    by thematt523 on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 11:17:26 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  He's below 40% (0+ / 0-)

      In fact, he's at 33% with whites.

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 11:19:47 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  He got 42% in 2008 in FL (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, SaoMagnifico

        So yeah, 33% isnt great. But still, he could probably get 39% and win the state.

        •  Yeah, I know what he got in '08 (0+ / 0-)

          This is, by any reasonable measure, a significant dropoff. And it's not just in approvals. He fails to break 40% against any Republican.

          The toplines are somewhat comforting--assuming they're right.

          Ok, so I read the polls.

          by andgarden on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 11:29:16 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  There is nothing eye-opening here except... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            thematt523, itskevin

            ...that PPP actually has Obama still leading Romney at all, and hitting 50 vs. Perry, in Florida which frankly has always been a tougher state for Obama than most other traditional swing states.  I'm actually encouraged by this poll.

            As far as Obama's standing with Florida whites is concerned, there's nothing eye-opening about that when Florida is a center-right swing state anyway, it's always a couple points to the right of the nation as a whole in Presidentials, and Obama's national job approvals are in the low 40s.  All that considered, Obama's standing in Florida right now doesn't concern me as anything unexpected.

            And his standing with whites is predictable, nothing new.  He can afford a point or two dropoff with them next year thanks to increasing nonwhite vote share, but yeah he needs to do better with whites to win the state.  But that's true everywhere!

            43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 08:46:39 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  But what is he getting (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico

        in actual elections? If it's 39%-40%, that's an appropriate threshold. If it's below, it means that the political climate isn't very good, but I don't need this poll to tell me that.

        People panic too much on this site.

        by thematt523 on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 11:31:15 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  He's getting in the low-to-mid 30s (0+ / 0-)

          in head-to-heads.

          Ok, so I read the polls.

          by andgarden on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 11:32:31 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Then (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            SaoMagnifico

            he has some work to do, and he has time. You can't honestly expect Obama to be up big in a GOP-leaning swing state with 40% approval nationwide.

            Florida isn't going to suddenly become a Dem safe haven while everything else stands still. As Obama's approval goes up or down, it will go up and down in Florida.

            And your fear that Florida may go GOP? Guess what? That fear will occur every cycle that isn't extremely pro-Dem. And even then, it's not guaranteed.

            People panic too much on this site.

            by thematt523 on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 11:44:54 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Even Florida's present status (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              DCCyclone, LordMike, thematt523

              is a big improvement for Democrats from the 1980s, when none of the three Democratic nominees broke 40% of the vote there.  Even into the 1990s, Clinton only got 39% in his first race (while he would have gotten quite a bit more without Perot, he still lost the state.)

              And remember back in the 80s California was at best a swing state and often GOP leaning, New Jersey was solid Republican for president, and even New York wasn't safe Democratic.  For all the current challenges, we've come a long way in two decades.

      •  And nothing will change at all? (0+ / 0-)

        It's certainly possible his numbers with that group won't budge for some reason, but the fact that they barely changed at all from 2004 to 2008 makes me think it's roughly fixed in the end. If not, a solid campaign of contrasts between Obama and Perry or Romney should help his numbers.

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site