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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: What on earth happened to Jennifer Brunner? (314 comments)

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  •  His numbers with whites aren't (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew

    that far off from where they were in 2008, which is very close if not exactly the same compared to what they were in 2004.

    PPP has the racial breakdown as 67/12/16/6 for whites, blacks, Hispanics, and others. This adds up to more than 100, so let me subtract one point off of the black percentage just for a worst case scenario. If the breakdown is 67/11/16/6 and he's able to get 40 percent of whites, 90 percent of blacks, and 65 percent of both Hispanics and others, he will receive 51 percent of the vote. If the sample is more like it was in 2008, which according to CNN was 71/13/14/2, he would get 50.5 percent of the vote.

    My posts with calculations tend to be a bit long, so I will stop here and simply ask, does it seem outlandish that he might get 40 percent of the white vote? A bit less than that might do, if non-white turnout is high and he gets a good percentage of that vote. Let's also remember that I only gave him 90 percent of the black vote. I don't think it's at all unreasonable to think it could be higher.

    •  The problem is that, yes, 40% (0+ / 0-)

      does look at bit unreasonable from this standpoint. And yes, that's roughly what he seems to need.

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 11:30:54 AM PDT

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      •  Why does it look unreasonable? (0+ / 0-)
        •  He would have to convince a huge (0+ / 0-)

          chunk of voters who don't like him or want to vote for him to change their minds. that's hard.

          Ok, so I read the polls.

          by andgarden on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 11:49:27 AM PDT

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          •  Well (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            andgarden, itskevin

            if the economy improves, or the political climate improves some other way, you'd be amazed at how skillful he is at winning them back.

            People panic too much on this site.

            by thematt523 on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 11:52:51 AM PDT

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            •  I should be explicit here as I have been elsewhere (0+ / 0-)

              that I don't expect the economy to improve in a relevant way. That's what has me so worried.

              Ok, so I read the polls.

              by andgarden on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 11:53:47 AM PDT

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              •  Then we're screwed (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                andgarden

                I'm sorry, but this next election cycle hinges on the economy. Obviously, it can improve enough to get Obama over the hump with enough campaigning, but if it stays where it is, more likely than not, he will lose. Plain and simple.

                His only real shot in that case would be for a really bad GOP nominee, like Palin.

                If you have absolutely no hope for the economy, you cannot hope for an Obama victory. If the fundamentals predict a 50-50 election, or even a 49-51 loss, Obama can easily win with campaigning. But if the fundamentals predict a 47-53 loss or beyond, we are screwed.

                People panic too much on this site.

                by thematt523 on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 12:03:16 PM PDT

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                •  That's basically the analysis I'm arriving at (0+ / 0-)

                  I had thought that setting up a contrast with the Republicans over what to do with the economy might help. But I am starting to think that Obama has "tried that, didn't work" branded on his forehead.

                  Now, the Republicans should have the same, but it seems like they can launder themselves much more readily.

                  Ok, so I read the polls.

                  by andgarden on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 12:05:05 PM PDT

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                  •  No (0+ / 0-)

                    People just blame the incumbent party in bad times. And what Obama is doing certainly can't hurt. But speeches NEVER, EVER pull a 40% approval rating up. If you get a single point up, that's an accomplishment.

                    Obama's approval depends on the economy. The American Jobs Act would help, but Republicans have no incentive to help Obama get re-elected, no matter how much he shames them.

                    People panic too much on this site.

                    by thematt523 on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 12:08:25 PM PDT

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          •  It's hard, but not impossible. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            itskevin

            Look at the head-to-head comparisons with Romney and Perry. He's losing whites 34-57 to Romney and 38-53 to Perry, with nine percent undecided in each group. You're essentially betting that virtually nobody changes his mind for any reason and that every single undecided voter breaks towards one of those guys. If he merely splits the undecided whites with each one of these guys, he's right where he needs to be.

            Plus, like I said below, in spite of this poll, the fact that Kerry and Obama received roughly the same percentage of the white  vote in 2004 and 2008 leads me to think that it's basically fixed and will remain so unless there's a gigantic drop all over the country, at which point he'd be losing badly.

          •  No he doesn't (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            itskevin

            He doesn't have to convince them to "change their minds."  By their own terms they're undecided, which is why Obama still leads Romney by a point in this poll.  Obama doesn't have to flip anyone, he just has to keep enough undecideds in his corner to eek it out.

            I'm amused by this because this poll is better than I would've expected for Obama in Florida right now.  Florida has always been a terrible state for Obama, even on election night last time it was a pure tossup going in.  He trailed in the state, sometimes badly, for most of the 2008 cycle until very late.  And Obama's Florida polling in recent months has been worse than this one.

            43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 08:50:45 PM PDT

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