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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: What on earth happened to Jennifer Brunner? (314 comments)

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  •  It's hard, but not impossible. (1+ / 0-)
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    Look at the head-to-head comparisons with Romney and Perry. He's losing whites 34-57 to Romney and 38-53 to Perry, with nine percent undecided in each group. You're essentially betting that virtually nobody changes his mind for any reason and that every single undecided voter breaks towards one of those guys. If he merely splits the undecided whites with each one of these guys, he's right where he needs to be.

    Plus, like I said below, in spite of this poll, the fact that Kerry and Obama received roughly the same percentage of the white  vote in 2004 and 2008 leads me to think that it's basically fixed and will remain so unless there's a gigantic drop all over the country, at which point he'd be losing badly.

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