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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: What on earth happened to Jennifer Brunner? (314 comments)

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  •  So everything Walker (0+ / 0-)

    did over the past year won't matter, in 2014? Wisconsinites dislike this man strongly. Even if the economy improves and he gets his "sea legs", I doubt he would win reelection.

    19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 08:58:27 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  He's not that far underwater (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca

      Walker's job approvals are in the mid-40s.  He's underwater for sure, but he actually recovered a small bit from the spring to the summer, having bottomed out in the low 40s.

      If just 1 out of every 20 voters softens on him, he's OK.  And I guarantee that a significant share of that disapproval is soft disapproval that can turn without a lot required, because that's always true in every pol's disapprovals, as well as approvals.

      43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 09:04:35 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's if you believe (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin

        much of his disapproval is actually "soft". Wisconsin as it is now is pretty partisan and divided with a slight edge to Democrats. Sure a small percentage may be soft, but I doubt it's enough to get him over the hump.

        19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

        by ndrwmls10 on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 09:22:58 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  "Much" doesn't have to be soft (0+ / 0-)

          As I said, 1 out of 20, that's all it takes to flip his approval into positive territory.  I guarantee at least that much of his disapproval is soft.

          It might not turn at all, for sure.  Sometimes people just stay underwater.

          But as a rule pols don't stay underwater for years at a time.

          What really matters is whether people have come to dislike Walker personally to the point he can't recover.  I kind of doubt that, just based on the fact his approvals are still in the mid-40s now.

          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 30, 2011 at 05:06:18 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  His approvals (0+ / 0-)

            have been in the 40's this whole time. The state is extremely divided.

            19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

            by ndrwmls10 on Fri Sep 30, 2011 at 10:31:07 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  "This whole time" is only a few months (0+ / 0-)

              He had the standard decent honeymoon polling at the outset, then slid by mid/late-winter.  We're talking 6-7 months of bad polling, it just feels longer than that because so much has happened.

              The state will remain extremely divided, I don't doubt that, but it's expecting a lot to think Walker will remain steady at 45ish job approval for 3 more full years.

              43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 30, 2011 at 11:18:41 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Look, I'm all for (0+ / 0-)

                the idea that his numbers may improve, but this could be the exception to the rule. Not to mention the growing corruption scandal in his administration. We can look at it in the abstract and say "yeah his numbers will improve", but when you look at it for what it really is, there is no way.

                19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

                by ndrwmls10 on Fri Sep 30, 2011 at 11:22:44 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  The corruption scandal only means that.... (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  itskevin

                  ...the state Dems better get aggressive about a recall election next year.

                  Voters have short memories.  If the scandal doesn't force Walker out of office in disgrace, then a recall next year is a better bet than hoping for 2014 to be better for us.

                  My take on the whole thing is that you strike while the iron's hot, and in this case that means trying to dethrone Walker next year, not in 3 years.

                  43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 30, 2011 at 11:51:56 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  The corruption scandal (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    DCCyclone

                    could also give Dems more legitimacy in seeking the recall in the first place. Without the scandal, voters might have thought: "Oh, here we go again," as recall fatigue has probably set in. This gives us a new rationale for making the push.

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